In the biz of "smarthphones", 2007 and 2008 has really shored up competition. Word is MS has set a goal to have 40% of that market by 2012, which is...uhhh... very ambitious since at last count they have about 13%.
Sure, why not? Shoot, lets just set any number, it's not like companies actually have to live up to such goals. As long as MS moves up from 13% to anything higher, it'll be seen as a success.
Of course I've always had problems with such statements, namely what defines "smartphone" is often left out. Does MS even bother to consider the iPhone to be a smartphone (we know that debate has raged in the forums for quite some time)? What about how RIM's market share is exploding, Android is warming up at bat and last I checked Symbian is actually fairing quite well (except in the States)? Then you have those pseudo-smartphones e.g. Sprint Instinct, which only blurs the distinction.
RIM Stock (1 yr)
Then there's that whole fractionation of the market into consumer (low end and high end) and business devices. MS has certainly taking aim at enterprise but only occasionally dipped their toe into the consumer market, something which WM7 will supposedly change. At least MS has HTC in their pocket to help things along--their market performance shouldn't be discounted either.
So which phones and which market segment are we talking about exactly?
Lets check back in 2012 and see if any of this came to be, but personally I'm not betting on anything--hey, who knows, "Nova" could be absolutely amazing ; -)