Windows Phone to overtake iOS in 2015?

Will Windows Phone jump to #2 in 2015?

IHS iSuppli Mobile & Wireless Communications Service is inclined to believe that Windows Phone will overtake Apple's share of the smartphone market by 2015.  Their projections show Microsoft's market share taking a huge leap from 2011's 1.9% to 9% by the end of this year.  From there, they predict another jump in 2013, where things will level off to slow and steady growth, eventually overtaking Apple's iOS by one tenth of one percent.

IHS gives credit for this rise almost entirely to Nokia, who garnered huge praise for their Lumia 900 at CES and announced their line of 4G phones for the US. 

“One of the hottest new products unveiled at the Consumer Electronics Show was the Lumia 900, a Windows Phone-based smartphone sporting a flashy set of features that makes it competitive with the best alternatives offered by the Android camp,” said Wayne Lam, senior analyst for wireless communications at IHS. “This hot product represents Nokia’s first step to reclaim its market share. Combined with Nokia’s efforts to drive the development of the Windows Phone ecosystem, the Lumia 900 and its successors will help Microsoft to reclaim its No. 2 ranking in smartphone operating system market share in 2015.”

We've heard this kind of prediction before and remain skeptical, as always.  While it looks like Windows Phone will indeed catch on and become a force in the smartphone market, claims like this should always be taken with a grain of salt.

Source: iSuppli; Thanks, damthman, for the tip yesterday


Reader comments

Windows Phone to overtake iOS in 2015?


While any growth for Windows Phone is awesome, I have to agree with you. The iPhone fanboys will buy anything Apple puts out just cause its Apple no matter what and claim it to be the most inventive new gadget. I'm praying people wake up and see how great our OS is and start to give WP the accolades, credit, and support it well deserves.

I don't think so until Windows becomes the new hipster movement its not going to overtake Apples cult but with the help of Nokias design team they will be able to attract more users to the Windows platform overall.
But first Android Microsoft has to take back whats theirs.

Predictions always look really farfetched...
There is no way of knowing what will happen with these mobile OS's in so many years because it depends a lot in what companies do with their systems in the years to come, not in what features are available right now.

I thing the big push will come when Windows 8, and Windows phone 8(?) are integrated. It'll give current PC users a reason to buy into the ecosystem.

I think 10% is a bit of a stretch but 8-9% may be reasonable.  You have to remember, that many people still dont have smartphones--around the world.  Nokia and Microsoft is specifically bent on getting them Windows Phones.  Apple isn't even competing in those markets right now.  It doesn't matter if Apple sells iPhones to everyone in the US--if 10% of India and China buy Windows phones.  Even so, WP will grow substantially in the US with development coming this year.  WP8 has even more features and almost 100% integration with tablets and laptops/desktops.  I have been waiting to buy a tablet, but am waiting for Windows 8 tablets because I think they will be much more useful for me.  Give me one decent (preferably Nokia-designed) tablet and I am in.  The way WP is designed, it will stand the test of time much better than any other OS out there.  MSFT knew it wouldnt take iOS in a night--they have a "get em slow and steady strategy".  WP8 will feature even greater integration with office and xbox.  Lumia 900 is step 1--Nokia has many more coming.  Even most iPhone users like Nokia's design more than iPhone's current design.

I will nont buy another tablet unless it has W8 on it. IMO, I think we will see substantial growth for the windows os.

I hate these articles when you're standing there with your 1% of the market. Lets try to improve what we're doing now and worry about 3 years from now later.

you must be surprised why the heck someone with just 2% share talking about beating apple right?  doesn't make sense right???
This is where the ecosystem works, MS has a one which can make it easy for them to sell anything which is not the best (we have seen many times before, xbox remember). But this time with an OS so beautiful its all about making the buzz and familiarity of OS...wont take much time i guess 

iOS is nothing but innovative! My old Windows Mobile had tons of the big capabilities the brand new iPhone4s such siri... I was able to set appts up and see what my schedule was like and whatnot... All apple did was add a few more lines of code to say something funny when someone asks "who's your daddy". Its funny but it's by no means new... Microsoft had the verbal recognition down a long time ago, they just programmed it for business type, not teenagers...

IOS inovative? what have they *inovated* lately?     SIRI?  siri is not apple....  siri is a individual company  that sold the rights to apple to use siri.... like sayign SKYPE is  MS`s inovation.... not even close.. MS ditn make skype.....  they paid for it.. lol

WP will past Iphone... and they base this off of ONE event and ONE phone Model??  lol ... from a analist point of view.. ..talk about missing the boat.....
maybe if Apple`s HQ gets hit by a NUKE and stops producing phones in 2013?
even if that happends the assians have a big enought productive line to cover the world over 10 times.. LOL....

I don't think that these numers are optimistic enough.  
IF Microsoft and its OEMs comtinue to deliver I don't think they will eat into Apple's share very much, but they will certainly take out Blackberry in the business sector and Android at the lower end and midrange especially.  I don't think that we can overestimate the allure of cheap, fast and reliable phones with great business cred.  This is the same formula that led Microsoft to conquer the PC market.  

Windows Phone is not perfect, but I whole-heartedly believe that it is the best overall OS right now, even if not by much. Drawing Android and iOS users away from their chosen platform will be difficult, but not impossible. Microsoft has the unique opportunity to cater to the first-time smartphone user. That is how market share will be gained. It is a long-term battle, but I feel that these predictions may not be too far from reality.

It doesn't matter though, anyways, because the world is co.ing to an end this year, right? ;-)

U never see WP users queued for the newest model, simply because they are not so idiot as funboys.They will preorder online ;)

my friend is an iphone fanboy and he has like 5 macs, but he was just asking me whether he should get a Lumia because he really wants to.. I think that's saying something

my friend is an iphone fanboy and he has like 5 macs, but he was just asking me whether he should get a Lumia because he really wants to.. I think that's saying something

The only way this is remotely going to happen is if Microsoft-Nokia buys Research in Motion and builds from BlackBerry's current marketshare.

teenagers are preferring WP as it is fresh, they see their parents or old people owning iPhones so they associate it as "good for my nanny". And this is true, using IOS or android after some weeks with metro, is like turning back to Win95 from Win7 :)

Don't get me wrong but there that money other smartphone OS out there so, how are supposed to believe that WP7 is really the third one currently. I mean, BlackBerrys may not be the best but there are plenty of them out there, this seems to be a biased chart. It should show all of the "other" OS to show the WP7 actually has more market share than the rest of them, until then, we have to pass the little guys before taking out the giants.

Thanks to Google buying Motorola, combined with MS making sure vendors pay for patents... this might happen since WP should be a more vendorfriendly os:)

Awesome now I'll have to worry about spending 250 dollars to update my phones os every Couple years just like I do my computer.