As we look ahead to Windows Central’s 20th anniversary in 2027, we’re taking time to revisit the stories that shaped our community. From Microsoft and Xbox to Windows and PC, these throwbacks remind us how far we’ve come together.

Interestingly, Microsoft did try to reinvent the phone with Surface Duo (2020) and Surface Duo 2 (2021), both of which pushed the boundaries and concepts of what a mobile device could be. However, both ran Android and were eventually terminated due to poor sales.

We also have more information about a "true" Surface phone circa 2014 that was in development, and we're trying to get approvals to publish that, so stay tuned.

The article below was first published on Friday, Oct. 23, 2015. – Daniel Rubino, Editor-in-Chief

Yesterday I wrote an analysis of Microsoft's seemingly great last quarter contrasted with a rather devastating quarter for Windows Phone. Of course, no one was surprised, and we all know the reasons. None of that was news, but it did quantify it, which was interesting. Instead, in that piece I wanted to lay out the landscape for Microsoft in mobile, what they had to do and discuss what their intentions were for the category.

After ruminating a bit on the topic, I figured I would try to answer my question: What's next? To be clear, I am speaking here purely in speculatory terms, but I do think it is grounded in precedent. Also, there are some obvious directions that Microsoft is likely to go in when you look at recent decisions.

Out with the old smartphone

A few weeks ago, I noted how Microsoft, and specifically Panos Panay, seemed less enthused about the new Lumia 950 and Lumia 950 XL. I almost forgot to mention the Lumia 550, but then again, so didn't Microsoft at that October devices event.

The main argument I was making was that these Lumias do not entirely represent what Microsoft is doing these days. It should be clear that the Lumia 950 (Cityman) and Lumia 950 XL (Talkman) are carryovers from Nokia days. Even their codenames refer to the very first Nokia phones, in an a purposefully ironic choice.

Many pointed out to me that Microsoft picked up the Nokia mobile division. Therefore, those are their phones now. True, except that their development was still under Stephen Elop and his cadre including Jo Harlow. Both of those people were let go by Microsoft in late June. Terry Myerson took over for awhile before Panos Panay – famous for the Surface line – took over the engineering aspect for all hardware, including Windows Phone in late July.

That shakeup is a rather big one especially when you consider the old Lumia strategy, which clearly wasn't working. Meanwhile, Panay and his team are clearly knocking it out of the park with the Surface series. Now that Panay leads engineering for Windows Phone, Surface, Microsoft Band, and even Xbox there is a lot that can happen. Moreover, since this engineering team now works with the one Windows team under Myerson, there is a great deal more synergy with a single focus.

I suppose Microsoft could just kill off phones. However, that would make Nadella look bad. Not because killing mobile would be unpopular – quite the contrary, investors would applaud – but because Nadella had a chance when Elop and team were let go in June. Killing off mobile now would look bad because Nadella already did a re-org, and it makes his decision making look shortsighted. Why give the phone division to a new guy only to cancel it?

Plus, I still have not heard an argument about how the Universal Windows Platform (UWP) for Windows 10 has any meaning once you remove mobile from the equation. The whole thing just goes away.

Instead, I believe Microsoft has specific plans for mobile, which is why they gave it to Panay. However, I don't think they are just going to do a me-too flagship smartphone either.

The future of smartphone devices

Windows Phone, as we know it, is dead. It lost to Apple's iPhone and Android back in 2014 (some would say back in 2012, although for while things were looking up). In 2015, Windows Phone has been tenaciously hanging on as Windows 10 comes to fruition, but it is clear the old model is not working.

I said earlier that the Lumia 950 and Lumia 950 XL "do not entirely represent what Microsoft is doing these days." I used the word entirely because undoubtedly Continuum is a Microsoft vision of the future along with all of Windows 10 as an OS. In that sense, these new Lumias do represent Microsoft as they will showcase all that Windows 10 can offer. I don't think Microsoft was lying when they said that.

Nonetheless, when you look at the history of what Microsoft has recently done in hardware, they don't completely fit either. Let me give some examples.

For a few years, Apple's iPad was dominating portable computing. People called for Microsoft to do something similar. What did we all want? An iPad hardware with Windows. They responded with the Surface. That was not what people were expecting, and it's something entirely different. Even in 2015, the Surface Pro 4 is no iPad Pro.

For years, MacBook Airs and Pros were crushing premium laptops. People called for Microsoft to make their own. Microsoft responded with the Surface Book. Once gain, they went beyond what was expected and created something entirely different.

For years, people were asking Microsoft to make (another) smartwatch. Android had theirs. Apple released the Watch. Fitbit is already crushing it. Now we have the Band 2, which in my opinion, is the best of everything. Again, it is their own niche.

You see where I am going with this. Microsoft is not about creating hardware for the sake of creating another thing. They only create hardware after consideration of where the market is going to be, not where it is now.

Microsoft canceled the Surface Mini because it was just a small Surface. It reportedly brought nothing new to the table. It wasn't going to disrupt the market; it was another me-too device.

Now we are asking for a Microsoft phone. We get the Lumia 950 and Lumia 950 XL? It just doesn't fit. Those are nice phones; they are just not radical departures that challenge convention. Microsoft is now about challenging convention. Remember, out of the blue they announced holographic computing in the biggest "Whaaaaaa?!" moment in my career.

Apple used to be like this too. All they did was release another smartphone in 2007. We already had those, so what was different? Well, the whole philosophy behind it. No physical keys, large display, and complete control over the OS. Many of us, including myself, laughed it off. Many didn't even call it a smartphone since it had no app SDK ergo it was not a platform (remember, web apps?).

It's a legitimate question unless you believe the current app-phone model is going to go on forever. Are smartphones doomed to "Welp, we made the OS more complex and threw new hardware at it" system, or are they going to evolve? Where to we go from here?

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella even knows smartphones are about what is coming next, not what is here now. In an interview with Mary Jo Foley, Nadella said this about their smartphone strategy:

We already know smartphones are having an effect on computing. Tablet sales are in a slump as smartphones with large displays take over. Even Apple cannot escape that cannibalizing effect with their Plus phones and iPads. PC sales are also down and no, it's not because of Windows, but rather people have tablets, phones, TVs, and wearables competing for their processing time.

Remember when you used to check email on a desktop PC, not on your smartphone?

I bring this all up because if I had to guess, this is the question Microsoft is trying to answer. They know they can't win with the current system. Apple and Android are too dominant. So what you do is jump ahead and create a device for where people are going, not where they are. The Lumia 950 and Lumia 950 XL is where we are today in mobile tech. It's not different. Why else do we compare it to the iPhone or latest Android devices and go "oh yeah, not bad I guess".

For many a "Surface phone" would just be a metal phone with high-end specs and a Surface label. I always laugh at that since what Surface represents – transformation – is not that. That's just another smartphone with a brand name. Big deal.

Microsoft tried to kickoff modern PC development with the Surface. That was the whole point. What would such a program look like for phone if they wanted to re-invent that category?

Ditch platform specific programming, make universal hardware

Window Phone has always had one Achilles heel preventing mass adoption. Apps. This problem is even more pronounced in 2015 as we transition to Windows 10 and yet another software platform. The problem is not just Microsoft's. BlackBerry has this issue too and sorry to say, even Android. I still see commercials for new hit games and services that are iOS first with Android coming later.

It is not a trivial problem, but rather one that represents where computing is today. As a developer, you have to choose your target platform wisely. It is likely not an easy decision, especially now that Windows 10 is on 110 million PCs already. At some point, developers may find it tough to ignore an app on Windows 10, especially once the Xbox store opens later in 2016.

When you look at Windows 10 and its Universal Windows Platform, you get an idea of what Microsoft wants, which is agnostic software for hardware. Doesn't matter what device you are running you just install the thing you want, end of story.

There is only one problem. There are other operating systems out there that you need to compete with like iOS and Android and even old Win32 apps and games. So what you do is create tools to let devs just port over their creations. These are, of course, the Bridge Technologies Astoria, Islandwood, Centennial, Westminster that should streamline this process for Android, iOS, Wind32 and web apps, respectively.

Microsoft wants to get rid of software development not only targeting hardware but the OS itself. Apps and services are blending and if the future is to go forward something needs to give in this tug of war. This reasoning is what Nadella calls a "path dependent strategy":

The next piece of the puzzle is what does a phone look like in this system?

Microsoft is clearly playing around multi-OS booting systems as reflective of their patents. They got the Android runtime to run within Windows 10 Mobile. They have a patent on 3D Touch navigation. They also bought Ntrig, which helped with that new G5 processor for pen input in the Surface Pro 4 and Surface Book. They have this idea of Continuum for PC and mobile, which is the software side of what Surface hardware is about. They also have this thing called HoloLens on the horizon and other crazy innovations.

I do not think we have seen what Microsoft has planned for mobile, not entirely.

Certainly the idea behind Continuum, which is turning your phone into a PC, is a big part of their future. Indeed, I see pocket computing and the concept of running a software-agnostic platform as the goal. This yet to come world is going to be about screens and what is in your pocket.

I think whatever Microsoft does in mobile will attempt to be what Surface was to modern computing in solving the 'Tablet or PC?' problem.

Microsoft has been reportedly working on a 'metal phone' that runs Intel hardware, which is something even I have heard from sources. The one thing I know is this is an internal Microsoft-Intel project and had nothing to do with Nokia. What that all means is going to be the fun part, but I don't think it's going to be just another phone with specs. There will be something unique about it and hopefully something that was not anticipated.

If you were the Surface team, what would a truly transformative mobile phone be that you designed? Rattling off specs alone misses the point, folks. I am talking about ideas here, not numbers or whatever the latest Qualcomm chipset that is available.

As I said at the beginning, this is based on my speculation but also recent Microsoft decisions and even product announcements. To suggest their vision for mobile phones is just another smartphone I think would be shortsighted.

We know Microsoft can not only dream big but deliver too. Between Windows 10, HoloLens, the Surface Pro, and the new Surface Book we know Microsoft can create new hardware categories. That was just for 2015. Let's see what happens when they apply those ideas to mobile.

Windows Phone is dead. You know it, I know it. Everyone knows it. As painful as it still is, the world has accepted a duopoly in mobile computing, revolving around iOS and Android.

Apple is the darling of the U.S. tech industry, and has enjoyed a privileged spot dominating the western phone landscape, but globally, things are a bit different. Google's Android platform is by far and away the most-used mobile OS, owing to the fact smartphone manufacturers of all shapes and sizes can tap into it. Apple iOS is for iPhone only, and they're not exactly the cheapest devices on Earth, giving Google's platform a significant global advantage, particularly in smaller economies. Europe and the far east also love their Android devices, with Samsung taking pole position in most markets outside of the United States. Its market share has faced headwinds though, with increased competition from Chinese home-grown high-quality solutions from companies like Huawei and Oppo.

In any case, Microsoft is nowhere to be seen among any of this. Save for a few barely-maintained Android apps, Microsoft has largely given up on all of its smartphone aspirations. I can't remember the last time the Microsoft Launcher on Android got a serious update save for a half-hearted Copilot integration, and the app has some major bugs on Samsung devices that have been unaddressed for years. SwiftKey was once the most-loved keyboard app, and now languishes largely abandoned. The Surface Duo 2 folding phone was also abandoned, never receiving the latest Android versions, and is now likely a security hazard to actually use.

Yet, having very little presence on mobile I would argue is a huge issue for Microsoft. And sure, Microsoft's early investment in OpenAI stands to generate revenue for the company effectively in perpetuity, even if it does nothing. But Microsoft's abandonment of the "mobile computing" endpoint has effectively given the keys to its future away to competitor companies. OpenAI, Apple, Google, and others are set to direct the ebb and flow of consumer AI, not Microsoft. Microsoft is also locked out of expanding its "Xbox everywhere" approach, with Apple and Google blocking Xbox Cloud Gaming.

RELATED: On the enormity of Microsoft's Windows Phone shutdown mistake

Hindsight is 20-20 of course. CEO Satya Nadella previously lamented Microsoft's hasty shut down of Windows Phone. Indeed, with no skin in the game, Microsoft has no capability to force the hand of competitors in shaping the future of mobile gaming, consumer AI, or consumer computing in general. They can't be the "default" app on a huge swath of endpoints, but perhaps there's an opportunity on the horizon that could change that.

Let's go crazy and indulge me in some thought experiments for a moment.

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The DOJ might be creating the right conditions for an actually profitable Microsoft Android phone (maybe, possibly)

While this could all (very likely) amount to nothing, the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) is recommending "remedies" to unravel some of Google's monopolies, similarly to what happened to Microsoft in the late 90s with Internet Explorer. Some of you of a certain age might remember a period where Microsoft was forced to offer a browser choice screen when opening up Windows — ending Internet Explorer's run as the world's most popular web browser forever, and MSN's (now Bing's) viability as a search engine.

With Chrome rising to dominance with Google affixed as its default search engine, Microsoft and other companies were doomed to never find the query data necessary to build viable search algorithms. Now, the U.S. thinks that allowing Google to corner the browser market in tandem with its search engine monopoly might've been a bit of a bad idea. It has accused Google of abusing its search and ad monopoly to promote its own products and services, and has begun seeking "behavioral remedies" and other solutions to promote competing products.

Google is currently appealing the ruling, but the U.S. DOJ has already recommended that the company be forced to license its search data to rivals, end paid agreements that set Google as the default search engine (such as with Safari on iPhone), and also sell off its Chrome browser. Whether or not these remedies would actually help competition remains a contested topic, given that the DOJ would effectively be forcing everyone to hitch their wagon to Google's search engine data in order to even come close, which could ironically give Google even more control over search. Google currently controls 90%~ of that market, with Microsoft Bing, at number two, with a mere 5%~ based on some analyses. But we're not here to discuss search today, although it is part of the puzzle.

We've established that being unable to set itself as the "default" app on devices is preventing Microsoft from even getting its products in front of people. There's been a lot of contention about how Microsoft has been "forcing" Microsoft Edge as the default web browser on Windows 11 for some time, but simply allowing Google to control the entire internet doesn't exactly seem like a great alternative. (And hey, Microsoft Edge is pretty great these days, damnit).

Either way, this isn't about necessarily simply railing on Google (as fun as it is). People use Chrome because it's arguably the best. People use Google because it is also the best. The issue is that competing products aren't even given the vaguest opportunity to grow and offer something different. That's why Microsoft was forced to give up Internet Explorer's dominance in the first place. It was holding the internet back. Arguably, Google could also be holding the internet back, wiping entire businesses off the face of the Earth at a mere whim when it changes its algorithm without solid explanations. What if there were other, better ways to do search? We'd never know, simply because companies can't get the data they need to build a viable global search model. What would Bing look like if it actually had the data it needed in order to offer more accurate results? Bing generally performs well for easy searches, but stumbles when it comes to granular, detailed, or local search results.

In a world where Google might be forced to give its competitors a leg up, Microsoft might have the vaguest opportunity to compete not only in search, but perhaps even in mobile hardware. A huge part of Android's profitability framework is a result of the user data Google receives from Chrome and Google Play apps. And indeed, the DOJ was also at one point considering forcing Google to divest Android itself.

What if Android was truly open?

Google's Pixel smartphone line has increased in popularity over the years, although it remains quite small compared to the likes of Samsung. One advantage Google has here is that its hardware is subsidized to some degree, since it controls the Google Play Store where apps and games are delivered. Pixel phones thus can either undercut competitors, or enjoy better margins on software sales, and by wielding the search data monopolistically (allegedly). Samsung phones have the Galaxy Store, but it's not the default app store, and it's not really something people generally use.

Google forces companies using its version of Android to set all of Google's apps and services as the default out of the box. It's easy to switch them over of course, and you can effectively turn a Samsung Galaxy into a Microsoft Galaxy by switching to Microsoft Edge, Microsoft Launcher, Microsoft Authenticator, and so on, but it's not something 99% of users are likely to do.

The "behavioral remedies" the DOJ seeks to implement into Android pertain largely to search, although Google lost a similar case recently over its Google Play Store. Microsoft prematurely announced it would launch its own Android app / game store as a result of that ruling, which was almost immediately frozen as Google appeals it. Clearly Microsoft wants to be in mobile, it's just waiting for the right time.

The issue with building devices on Google's Android revolve around those pesky rules. Google takes 30% of all transactions that run through Google Play, and its "default app" status makes it the dominant place for developers to build services. It also has very anti-competitive rules baked into it. For example, Amazon can't sell books through its Kindle app on Google Play, despite the fact Google can sell books through Google Books on Google Play. Microsoft can't sell cloud games on the Xbox app on Android, despite the fact Google shut down its own cloud gaming service.

Apps like Twitch, Spotify, and many more are stifled by Google's "default app" monopoly on this platform, and this control it has extends to its search dominance. Google controls all the data that flows through those apps and services as well, helping inform it what ads to serve you as you roam around the internet.

The cut Google takes on Google Play, the licensing model it runs for Android, and the default apps clauses make it more difficult for Android manufacturers to compete in the space. Samsung has established itself as the dominant Android manufacturer, but its margins on smartphones are nowhere near as good as Apple's, because it has to pay Google in the middle. If you were a smaller company like OnePlus or a newcomer like Microsoft, you pretty much don't stand a chance without an absolutely gargantuan amount of investment, or some kind of killer innovation that upends the market. A more open Android could help improve the margins on building a "Surface Phone," where Microsoft would be free to set up its own apps and services as the default, sell Xbox cloud games directly, and perhaps even deliver Windows 365 and other services by default. As of right now, Google's control over Android would prevent that. Microsoft could build its own operating system again, but the ship has more than likely well and truly sailed on that possibility. The app gap would just be too absurd coming in so late, making Android the last, and only viable path towards returning to mobile.

Alas, 'tis but a dream

The DOJ says that if its Chrome divestiture and search licensing model isn't enough to promote competition, it reserves the right to seek a divestiture of Android itself. A more open Android either as part of behavioral remedies or a divestiture could give Microsoft one last, final chance to build a competing phone and thus, deliver its own apps and services as the default option. It would be the last, final chance it would have to meet consumers in their palms, rather than at their desks. It would be the only way to get consumers acquainted with things like Microsoft Copilot, and would be a strong endpoint for things like Microsoft Edge, Bing Search, and Xbox Cloud Gaming too. But, even if the DOJ did spin off Android, it's heavily unlikely to happen.

Microsoft's most passionate hardware innovator and phone enthusiast Panos Panay left the company for greener pastures, after Microsoft's interest in building its own hardware ecosystem dwindled. Microsoft is still building Surface tablet PCs, but they're nowhere near as popular as they once were a few years ago. The Surface Duo 3 was cancelled, and the Surface Neo tablet never even hit production.

The Surface Duo was an oddity whose elegant hardware didn't line-up with the operating system it was designed for. But what about a more traditional rectangle phone, designed from the ground up for Microsoft apps, with a Microsoft-first Android app store that gave developers a better cut than Google? A playground where Microsoft could innovate on actually useful AI solutions that require a device you can put in your pocket and have with you at any time, rather than the device that is tied to your desk? I don't see how Microsoft Copilot is ever going to find traction tied to desktops, when smartphones have so many more use cases attached for day to day tasks. But, I also don't see how today's Google-controlled Android would ever be a viable platform for Microsoft (or frankly anyone new) to attempt to build a smartphone on. Unless, unless it was fully cracked open by the United States regulatory powers.

But with a new election behind us and priorities shifting, this entire article is likely just an exercise in "what could've been" wistful Surface Phone fantasies. This is of course ignoring a mountain of other issues, like whether or not people would put their trust in Microsoft again after so many rug pulls ... but it's fun to dream, sometimes.

What do you think? Hit the comments, let's chat.

What you need to know

• Microsoft’s next foldable Surface phone won’t be a dual-screen device
• The company is pivoting to a true foldable design with 180-degree hinge
• The move comes after the Surface Duo 2 received mixed reviews.

Microsoft’s next foldable Surface phone won’t be a dual-screen device, according to my sources who are familiar with the company’s plans. After a long year of hardware prototyping and experimentation, the company has decided to pivot over to a more traditional foldable design, with a 180-degree hinge, internal foldable screen and external cover display, similar to devices like the Vivo X Fold and Honor Magic Vs.

I’m told this new foldable device came about after the company had already finalized a dual-screen design for Surface Duo 3. This original dual-screen design was supposed to ship at the end of 2023 as the next Surface Duo, featuring narrower and taller edge-to-edge displays, wireless charging, and other improvements.

That dual-screen design has now been scrapped, and the Surface team is now focused on delivering this new “true” foldable design. Microsoft began exploring single-screen foldable designs as a potential successor to the Surface Duo 2 in late 2021 after it launched and was met with mixed reviews.

It’s still too early to know the exact specs that this new foldable device is going to feature hardware wise, or whether or not Microsoft plans to simulate a dual-screen experience via a software feature or mode. My sources say there’s no concrete shipping window for the device in place yet either, meaning it's unlikely to be ready in time for this fall.

Microsoft recently filed several design patents for single-screen foldables with a 360-degree hinge, leading some reports to speculate that this might be what the next Surface Duo pivots to. My sources say this is inaccurate, and that the foldable device will instead feature a 180-degree hinge just like most other foldable phones.

Of course, with the change in form factor may also come a change in name. It’s still too early to tell, but given this device isn’t a traditional Duo in form factor, perhaps the company will take this opportunity to rebrand the line, similar to what it did with the Surface Book and Surface Laptop Studio. Regardless, sources tell me this device is still considered a third-generation Duo internally.

My sources also tell me there’s a larger software effort ongoing internally that’s designed to better differentiate its future Android hardware offerings from the rest of the competition. This effort is dubbed “Perfect Together” and aims to deliver an ecosystem experience between Microsoft’s Android hardware and Windows PCs similar to that between an iPhone and Mac.

I also hear that Microsoft is eager to expand its line of Android smartphone offerings, and has been exploring different form factors to ship in addition to a foldable device. While nothing is set in stone, I’m told the company has already prototyped several traditional slab smartphone designs, which could ship as a “mainstream” Surface phone offering, allowing the foldable device to exist as an enthusiast product.

Overall, these changes and plans for Microsoft’s Android efforts are significant, and my sources tell me Microsoft is remaining “all-in” on delivering its own Android hardware and software, at least for now. Let’s just hope the next Surface phone is ready sooner rather than later.

The idea of a true Android smartphone by Microsoft has always piqued my interest, these days more than ever now that Windows Phone is a thing of the past. It's fair to say that in 2019, Microsoft is "all-in" on the Android platform thanks to its efforts like the Microsoft Launcher, Edge, and Office, all first-class experiences on Android smartphones around the world. While Microsoft is all over Android on the software side, one area where it hasn't grasped the platform is in the form of hardware.

Android software and apps on Microsoft hardware

To experience Microsoft software and services on Android, you must use non-Microsoft hardware. Samsung, Huawei, Xiaomi, OnePlus, Google, Nokia, and plenty of other smartphone makers all offer Android hardware that can run Microsoft software when on the go. This isn't a bad thing, but an Android smartphone wouldn't be the worst idea Microsoft has ever had, especially if it keeps expectations low and doesn't make any huge bets on it.

While a Surface Phone running Android would never sell to the quantity that Samsung smartphones do (or at least not a first- or second-generation phone), Microsoft could utilize the Surface brand to showcase the best of Microsoft's Android efforts all in one place, just like it has done for Windows PCs. I'm picturing a Surface-branded, Microsoft-built smartphone that comes with Microsoft Launcher, Edge, Office, Your Phone phone-mirroring integration, and more, out of the box. In fact, that's one of four unique selling points that a Surface Phone running Android could have:

• Showcase the best of Microsoft's efforts on Android.
• Seamless integration with Windows PCs using Your Phone.
• Provide the best security and update support on Android.
• Brand recognition that can rival Apple and Samsung.

That last point is more for Microsoft fans, but the first three are important. A Surface Phone running Android would be the only smartphone out there that's always guaranteed to work with all of Your Phone's features. I have a wide array of Android smartphones, yet 90 percent of them don't support all of Your Phone's features on Windows 10. Screen mirroring is only available on select devices, and while that may improve, there's no guarantee your smartphone will ever get it, or if it'll work well.

Microsoft could also provide enhanced features, such as the ability to take cellular phone calls on your PC directly from your Surface Phone. It could also build out dedicated Phone and SMS apps that sync up with the Messages app on your PC, instead of having to relay it through the Your Phone app. There's so much more potential when you build your own Android phone.

It would be much easier for Microsoft to provide better experiences that sync across PC and Android if it controlled the hardware and OS experiences at both ends. I'm not saying Microsoft should cut out third-party devices, but it wouldn't hurt to provide its own offerings in addition to supporting Samsung, OnePlus, and everybody else. It could also be the go-to device for Project xCloud, its upcoming game-streaming service.

A more controlled Microsoft experience

Android Q, which comes out later this year, will feature gesture support for navigation throughout the OS, but it only works with first-party launchers. That means if users want to use the Microsoft Launcher, they must give up gesture control, and vice versa. This is a prime example of how not having a Microsoft-made Android phone limits the experiences users want. A Surface Phone could have both Microsoft Launcher and gestures, as the Launcher would be more integrated with the OS.

Microsoft could also focus on security when it comes to Android, just like BlackBerry does. Microsoft is all about catering to enterprises, and I'm sure many enterprises out there would be interested in an Android smartphone that has security as one of the top things it focuses on. Integration with Microsoft enterprise security systems could also be valuable. That, and software updates that last longer than two years. An Android smartphone that remains updated for as long as an iPhone doesn't yet exist. Perhaps a Surface Phone could be the first.

I think the biggest reason for doing a Microsoft-made Android smartphone is that Microsoft could control what actually ships on the device and what's set by default. While the Play Store comes with baggage such as Gmail and YouTube, Microsoft could make it so Outlook, Edge, and SwiftKey, are set by default out of the box, along with Microsoft Launcher.

When it comes to design, a Surface Phone could inherit the staple Surface design language found across Microsoft's other Surface products.

Would the market embrace an Android Surface phone?

When the Microsoft Store in London opened last week, it was interesting to see just how many consumers were interested in Surface. They wanted to know what Microsoft is up to and were impressed by what they saw. I even heard someone ask whether they sell phones. (They do, but in the form of Android phones made by Samsung.)

Imagine if those store reps could point them to a Microsoft-made Android phone instead? The same great design as the Surface PCs, but running Android, meaning it has all the apps your existing phone does. It would complete the circle of hardware. Surface has its fingers dipped in almost all common hardware markets, except smartphones, arguably the number one device market out there right now. It wouldn't hurt to have a Surface Phone with Android in the mix, too.

People don't care whether their phones are running Android or Windows Phone or iOS. They care about apps. A Surface Phone that operates just like any other phone, and has the Google Play Store, is a device people would consider buying. I know die-hard Windows fans might hate a Surface Phone with Android, but the fact is, it doesn't matter what they think. It's all about catering to where people are, and people are on Android.

To be clear, I don't think we're close to Microsoft releasing an Android-powered smartphone anytime soon, but I don't think it can't happen. I wouldn't be surprised if there are people internally at Microsoft thinking about this very idea right now, weighing up whether it's worth trying. Does Microsoft want to put money into researching and developing a new smartphone, while also maintaining its own Android ROM, updates, and paying Google for a Play Store license? I'm not so sure they do.

What are your thoughts on this? Would you be interested in a Surface Phone that runs Android, with all the Microsoft bells and whistles that provide a seamless experience between your Windows PC and phone? Let us know in the comments.

Our favorite Surface accessories from Microsoft

Every one of these valuable Surface accessories is Windows Central Approved and guaranteed to please.

Surface Precision Mouse ($77 at Amazon)

The Surface Precision Mouse is not only one of favorite Surface accessories, it's one of our favorite mice for any PC. It's packed with valuable features and customizable buttons. Its scrolling and tracking are seamless and spot-on. And it's rechargeable so you never have to buy new batteries for it.

Surface Pen (From $72 at Amazon)

Every Surface owner needs this Pen. Period. It supports 4,096 levels of pressure sensitivity, tilt support for shading density, and enjoys supremely low latency. When paired with a Surface PC, the potential is endless. And it comes in a bunch of cool colors.

Surface Dock ($136 at Amazon)

With two Mini DisplayPorts, four USB-A 3.0 ports, an Ethernet port, and a 3.5mm audio jack, this dock gives you the ports you need to stay connected to all your favorite devices. Plus, it easily turns your Surface into a desktop power hub. We highly recommend it.

Microsoft is widely expected to give mobile another crack this year with the "Andromeda" OS, rumored to be designed for a new category of folding pocket-PC tablets. Whether or not it will actually happen, who knows? But would Windows be the right platform for it?

A discussion is currently taking place in our forums on precisely this topic.

Given the fact that Microsoft's Universal Windows Platform (UWP) still has a painful lack of apps, and progressive web apps (PWAs) aren't going to solve that in the near-term, should Microsoft bring its hardware expertise to the Android platform?

I use a BlackBerry KEYone Android phone as my daily mobile driver. I enjoy its full-size QWERTY keyboard for a "PC-like" typing experience, and the Microsoft Launcher and associated Android apps ensure that I never have to touch a Google service 99 percent of the time, which is just fine with me. I would certainly like to see Microsoft invest in building its own Android hardware, but the chances of this happening aren't particularly high.

Where do you stand on this topic? Hit the forums, let us know.

From the forums: Andromeda / Surface Phone will come with Android OS

After watching the Surface Hub 2 reveal yesterday, I felt like I was peering into the future. Surface reveal ads have become a bit of a phenomenon unto themselves, but for some reason, I think the Hub 2 has been the most captivating for me so far, even though I'm nowhere near the target audience.

The Surface Hub 2 is a boardroom display on steroids. It features rotational capabilities, inking, seamless integration with multiple Hubs and other Surface products, and can offer full-body Skype conversations as if you were in the same room. Smart screens like this aren't exactly new, but most of them frankly suck, with weak capabilities designed to meet education department budgets. Indeed, the Hub 2 is as niche as they come, but clearly, Microsoft sees an opportunity here. Perhaps they also see a similar niche opportunity with Andromeda.

The rumored Surface "Andromeda" is the near-mythical folding phone-tablet-thing that we've been writing about for what feels like forever at this point. Numerous small leaks, hints in OS code, and patent filings seem to point towards a type of tablet, comprised of two displays that connect at the middle. Since the Surface Hub 2 runs on WCOS/CShell, in a sense, it's offering the first glimpse at a Windows built specifically with multi-display use-cases in mind, such as the folding phone. Of course, you can use multi-monitors with Windows 10 today, but it's not always seamless, nor is it designed with apps in mind, to leverage all of those displays simultaneously. Andromeda, presumably, will be.

That creates various compelling compute scenarios that really got me thinking recently, and I did some (bad) doodles on my Surface Book 2 to explore the possibilities.

Productivity

Naturally, any folding device from Microsoft would likely be aimed at prosumers first, who don't rely on all the hip and cool social apps that will likely never hit PWA or UWP. Don't expect your folding Surface to ever get Snapchat, and at this time, it's unlikely classic Windows Phone apps like WhatsApp will arrive either. Andromeda will likely be designed to accompany your phone, much like a smartwatch, iPad, or even laptop, using Microsoft's "Your Phone" app to keep you informed about happenings on your other devices.

I'm by no means suggesting you'll be able to fully replace your laptop with Andromeda, but envision scenarios where you might only need to do some light word processing, such as a university lecture, a press conference, or some kind of meeting where notetaking in OneNote might be more efficient than whipping out a huge laptop, or trying to awkwardly swipe-type on your phone.

Perhaps after the event, you find a desk and want to convert some handwritten notes and add more context in Word. Setting the phone at an angle could produce a laptop-like experience complete with a virtual keyboard, similarly to the dual-display Lenovo Yoga Book. You could even throw in a Bluetooth keyboard and mouse, similarly to how you're able to with Windows 10 Mobile, albeit with a built-in stand to keep it from falling over.

There are even more possibilities when you throw in (likely) Bluetooth capabilities. Perhaps you take those notes and want to do additional research, keep your word document on one side, and open an Edge browser on the next.

This isn't far removed from simply snapping apps on a laptop, of course. The difference being Andromeda could be something small enough to fold and slip into your pocket, while large enough to be truly productive in short bursts. It could theoretically straddle a niche that isn't quite tablet, phone, or laptop.

Leisure and gaming

Sure, it's unlikely we'll ever see Snapchat on this thing (if indeed, this thing exists), but that doesn't mean you wouldn't be able to have fun on it. Any compatible UWP or PWA app will work on it just fine, scaling as necessary, much like they do on Windows 10 today.

Android phones can already pull off the dual-app thing, allowing you to watch a YouTube video while browsing side by side on your phone's display. But, at least theoretically, a dual-display Windows 10 device could take it a little bit further, processor withstanding.

The hinge creates interesting scenarios for gaming, too. Especially in a world where Microsoft's Xbox team is actively exploring streaming full games from the cloud. One of the biggest issues to solve surrounding this will be control schemes. The Xbox controller's Bluetooth stack is not available on Android, but it will be available on any future Windows 10 tablet device, similarly to how it works on PC and Windows 10 Mobile. Fold the display into tent mode, and game on.

If you don't fancy taking your controller with you, however, perhaps Microsoft could leverage the second display to create a type of virtual software gamepad. While this wouldn't work particularly well for shooters (no triggers or bumpers), there are hundreds of slower-paced games that would work just fine using this touch method.

What do you think?

There are probably dozens of other interesting use cases the folding aspect of Andromeda could have to add to its uniqueness. Dual cameras could produce 3D scanning techniques as Microsoft has hinted at in the past, and Microsoft has been experimenting with all sorts of docking peripherals for folding displays.

There's a chance Andromeda will never see the light of day, but after the Surface Hub 2 reveal, I'm more hopeful than ever that Microsoft will take a chance to do something special, even if its potential audience remains niche. We'll just have to wait and see.

Microsoft's worst kept secret keeps on spilling out thanks to patent filings related to the device. This latest one was unearthed by h0x0d on Twitter, and appears to detail a locking mechanism for the device's folding display.

Microsoft's Andromeda tablet is expected to be a dual-display folding device, complete with telephony and a unique Windows operating system (based on Windows Core OS) designed specifically for this new form factor. The Andromeda device will likely sport the Surface branding, and focus on digital journaling with robust inking features.

According to this new patent, the device could include magnetic locking mechanisms embedded in the display, allowing it to become locked in a folded state. The patent details the use of pivots and magnetic shielding to allow the locking mechanism to do its job, while noting that the device's hinge "may provide freedom of rotation from 0 degrees to 360 degrees." Presumeably, the magnets would be able to pivot to provide locking capabilities for both screens facing out, and screens closed. You can take a look at the full patent right over here.

As with all patents, don't take this as a confirmation of Andromeda or its features. As we know from the Surface Mini, projects and prototypes can get canned at the last minute.

Microsoft Andromeda: Everything we know so far

Microsoft exited the building of mobile development but is the company out completely? Many still hold on to the belief that the Redmond giant has a foldable Surface phone in the works, and with MWC 2018 just around the corner, there's still hope. That said, we've yet to see anything aside from speculation, dreams, and concepts. Microsoft has not announced any plans to continue working on the mobile front — quite the opposite, to be honest — but some still hold out hope that the time of Windows on phone will come again.

ARM support with Windows is already taking shape with some new portable PCs rocking Qualcomm chips. Windows as an OS is fairly versatile with the now stagnant Windows mobile and main desktop OS that has been adapted to work on mobile hardware. We could potentially see phone-esque devices running Windows, but the Surface phone remains a dream. Windows Central community member dharma teja1 is waiting patiently:

What are your thoughts on the Surface phone and the dead horse that is Windows mobile? Still holding out hope for at least something in 2018 to be positive for the defunct platform? Will MWC bring some good news? Join in the conversation over on our forum to let us know your thoughts.

From the forum: Can we expect Surface phone on MWC 2018?

Recently, we were able to take a look at a new platform category listing for the Microsoft Store, joining Xbox, PC, HoloLens, and other existing Windows platforms. The new OS uses a placeholder icon, and the mysterious "8828080" designation, which we think could be a reference to the Andromeda OS, designed specifically for new paradigms like the folding Surface device that has been floating around.

"8828080" appeared a little while ago as a new target platform within Microsoft's code infrastructure. It's noteworthy because it also forms part of Microsoft's corporate phone number.

We've heard that various existing Windows 10 Mobile and PC apps are already showing up with support for "8828080" in the store, including big-name third-party offerings from companies like Spotify, and even some games.

While not a huge development, the appearance of 8828080 on the Microsoft Store is encouraging. Joined by various other bits of information detailed by our Senior Editor Zac Bowden, and several recent patent filings, it certainly seems like this all-new, highly mobile platform could break cover sooner rather than later.

Further reading and referenced articles

• Microsoft is working on a foldable device with a focus on pen and digital ink
• Microsoft 'Windows Core OS' aims to turn Windows 10 into a modular platform for the future
• Why Microsoft could very well revive the Courier in 2018
• Even more folding Surface tablet images appear in patent filings
• What the future of Windows 10 will look like

In recent weeks, we've seen a number of Microsoft patent filings for a folding tablet-style device pop up, potentially giving us an early look at Microsoft's rumored Andromeda device. Showing no signs of slowing down, another patent filing recently surfaced (via Windows Latest), documenting a hinge mechanism for a dual-display device.

Titled "hinge with free-stop function," the patent shows how a folding device could rotate 360 degrees with the ability to stop at any point in the rotation. Parhaps more interestingly, however, the patent filing describes Microsoft's rationale for pursuing dual-display devices going forward. According to the filing, dual-display devices are meant to address the demand for larger screen sizes as modern phones continue to expand their features. From Microsoft:

According to the filing, hinges for such a device present a problem, particularly for thin devices. Microsoft attempts to address potential roadblocks, like protrusions and flimsy connections, with a selection of hinge concepts included in the filing.

It's worth keeping in mind that this, and other recent patents, represent filings for things that we may ultimately never see in a finished product on store shelves. However, as speculation heats up on a potential folding Surface device that could be a revival of sorts of Microsoft's canceled Courier tablet, each patent is an interesting look at what could be coming down the pike.

If you're more interested in seeing what a finished product might resemble, a designer recently showed off a sleek 3D concept of a device based off of the recent patent filings.

We've previously reported that Microsoft is working on a foldable Surface device focused on inking, codenamed Andromeda. Recently, a set of patent filings surfaced, giving us a closer look at Microsoft may have up its sleeve. Now, thanks to designer David Breyer (via The Verge), we have an even better look at what a Surface device based on those patents may look like – and the result is pretty sleek.

Breyer took the recent patent filings and turned them into an impressive set of 3D concepts. The renders explore how the folding device might look in different configurations, showing how the two screens might work when working as one, or folded into separate sections.

Microsoft's Andromeda device is expected to be somewhat of a revival of the company's canceled Courier tablet, allowing users to take advantage of CShell to enable unique experiences. The device is expected to be able to recognize multiple folded modes, adjustig to suit its configuratio, whether flat, tent, or "laptop" mode. Inking is expected to be a focus here, with note taking and similar functions receiving specific attention.

Patents can be hard to envision as a finished product, so it's striking to see the difference between the recent filings and what a finalized device based on them might look like. That said, it's worth stressing that these renders are based on patents, and we might never see such a device go on sale. Still, it's neat to see concepts detailed in the patents in a more lifelike form.

Audience questions for Episode 35

• Can Windows 10 ARM-based devices make phone calls & text messages just as Windows phone? - Dharma teja1
• Will Microsoft release a full version of Windows 10 for phones - Donovan / Which Windows OS will MS future Courier based device will use? - Dharma teja1
• Can we expect a new UWP explorer?? or a re-skinned Explorer UI that will fit in with Windows 10 design? - Brandon T

Further reading and referenced articles

• Microsoft 'Windows Core OS' aims to turn Windows 10 into a modular platform for the future
• Why Microsoft could very well revive the Courier in 2018
• Even more folding Surface tablet images appear in patent filings

Thanks, everyone, for the questions! Make sure to use Twitter, email, or our forums to ask me your question for next week!

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The latest patent (thanks, Isaac) gives us our best look yet at the "hinged device" Microsoft is working on, that our own Senior Editor Zac Bowden previously explained is codenamed Andromeda.

The notebook-like device looks set to be a revival of Microsoft's ill-fated Courier tablet, leveraging the dynamism of CShell and other new Windows 10 features designed to enable all sorts of new hardware experiences.

The new patent images show in more detail what we've already seen, including highly intricate hinge designs, complete with internal magnets for maintaining different folded, or unfolded configurations.

The patent details several methods Microsoft are looking into for keeping a continuous display running across two OLED panels, for each half of the folding screen, in addition to references to a "Surlink" connector, which could be the Surface connector, and a method for including a USB-C port.

As detailed by our own Zac Bowden earlier today, this folding Surface device will be able to recognize multiple folded modes, including a flat configuration, a tent mode, and angled classic "laptop" mode, preparing different user experiences based on the angle of the screen.

Running what's known internally as the Andromeda OS, this device will also support Windows Ink, complete with a new note taking app that comes with OneNote integration and promotes collaborative inking experiences, ideal for educational and professional settings.

The patent details a wide array of use cases, leveraging its unique properties. As you can see in the picture above, it looks as though it could serve as a bed side clock and alarm when not in use overnight.

It certainly sounds as though there's a large enough internal effort at Microsoft to bring this thing to the public. Here's hoping we see it sooner rather than later (and that it actually manages to escape from the top secret Surface labs to market).

This past year, Microsoft has filed several patents for what appears to be some kind of foldable device. Windows Central exclusively revealed back in October that Microsoft is indeed internally prototyping foldable hardware with a focus on pen and digital inking, that has telephony capabilities and runs a new version of Windows 10.

Today, yet another patent (via The Verge) for this rumored foldable device has appeared online, giving us a closer look at what how the hinge aspect might work and behave. The patent shows a device, with two screens adjoined by a small hinge that folds in either direction that gives the device several unique usable positions, including a tablet mode, tent mode, laptop mode, and a folded mode. The two screens can be used as one large one, or two separate ones depending on the position and orientation of the device.

Windows Central understands that these foldable devices will run a version of Windows 10 codenamed Andromeda OS, which is part of Microsoft's Windows Core OS effort. Sources tell us Microsoft is also building a dedicated notetaking app for the device, that spans across both screens mimicking a real notebook. The app will have OneNote and Windows Ink integration along with the ability to invite others into the same notebook for collaborative inking sessions, similar to the Microsoft Whiteboard app.

The Andromeda platform will also be the first to feature CShell, Microsoft's upcoming adaptable Windows Shell. CShell will allow Windows 10 to adapt and adjust experiences on the fly, so that when the user folds the device in any which way, Windows can offer the best experience that's tailored specifically for that mode. Of course, since this is Windows 10, it'll also be able to run Windows 10 apps as well.

The foldable device patents share similarities with Microsoft's canceled Courier project from 2010. Microsoft has been kicking around this idea for some time, and it appears the company is finally trying to bring that idea to market. Now of course, since this device hasn't been officially announced, it can be canceled at any time. For now however, it appears Microsoft is continuing to work on this idea, and hopefully we'll see it sooner rather than later.

This past year, Microsoft has filed several patents that evolve around foldable devices, and today, yet another patent has appeared online giving us possibly our best look yet at what a potential foldable handset from Microsoft could look like.

The patent is for a "Portable device with adjustable optical arrangement" and looks to be a way to solve having two optical arrangements on a single device that can then line up when closed, possibly acting as a way to compensate for thin displays resulting in small cameras. By stacking the two displays back to back the optical arrangement can in effect double in size.

We already know that Microsoft is internally prototyping a foldable device with a focus on pen and digital inking. It is widely believed that this device is codenamed Andromeda, and will be similar to that of the Microsoft Courier but in a smaller, pocket-able form factor.

Sources suggest this device will be the first to ship with a version of Windows 10 that features CShell and built with Windows Core OS, and may utilize a dual-screen system. The patent revealed today appears to show a dual-screen device that folds into a smartphone-like form factor.

Of course, patents aren't always representative of what the final shipping product may look like, and Microsoft may decide to cancel its plans to release a foldable device at any time. If such device doesn't get canceled however, we hear it may make an appearance as soon as next year.

Why Microsoft could very well revive the Courier in 2018

You can see the full patent here (warning: PDF).

What are your thoughts on Microsoft's foldable device plans? Let us know in the comments!

This week I answer questions about any hope for a "Surface phone", whether UWP is worth it for developers, and whether there will be any deals for the new Surface Pro this holiday season!

Audience questions for Episode 27

• Should I buy a Surface Pro (2017) now or wait until Black Friday? – Lacker20
• Now that Windows Mobile is officially dead is it worth for developers to try and get into the UWP ecosystem? – Prometheus2021
• Is there hope that a "Surface Phone' will be available in the near future? Or should this be our wake-up call, and throw in the towel. - Prometheus2021

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It's an interesting question, one that's sparked a lively conversation in the Windows Central forums. Of course, nobody outside of Redmond really knows whether or not Microsoft has any plans to release a new phone. So all the hoping and wishing may be for naught. But that won't stop us from speculating.

Forums member faisalbaba created a thread to discuss the whole Lumia-vs.-Surface thing.

Personally, I think it would be foolish for Microsoft to brand a new phone (or any new device) as a Lumia. That brand is associated with failure, like it or not, even though many of us love (or loved) our Lumias in the past. The Surface brand is much stronger right now — despite a recent Consumer Reports study that may have tarnished its image a bit.

The forum thread has already received quite a few responses, and not everybody agrees with my take. What do you think? Are you on Team Surface or Team Lumia, when it comes to a possible new phone from Microsoft. Hit the link below, make your way to the forum, and chime in with your $0.02.

From the forums: Which is better name if Microsoft have plan to release new window phone (surface or Lumia)

Trust is the foundation for any relationship. Trust is built on mutual respect and predictability, trust can be hard to earn, and trust can be nearly impossible to restore when lost. Trust is key, in both personal relationships and those between a business and a customer. Like Microsoft and the forever-jilted Windows phone user.

Sadly, Microsoft has lost the confidence of many, if not most, current and former Windows phone users. Though there is skepticism about Microsoft's potential return to mobile, many ex-Windows phone users have already resolved never to embrace anything Microsoft brings to the mobile space.

The trust is gone. And that's bad news for Microsoft.

The Disconnect

Microsoft is a company with a history of in-fighting and poor team interaction.

This began to change under the "One Microsoft" initiative led by former CEO Steve Ballmer. Current CEO Satya Nadella has also worked to transform the company's culture from one plagued with fear of failure to one that embraces taking chances and learning from mistakes. During a recent Facebook Live broadcast one Microsoft employee called this idea "failing forward."

In fact, in a 2016 interview about Microsoft's cultural shift General Manager of Office Labs Chris Pratley, told Windows Central:

Given this apparently sound foundation, Microsoft's failure in mobile is exceedingly profound; but not because Windows phones failed in the market. Products fail. It is the manner in which Microsoft mishandled its dedicated customer base which did not reflect the consumer-focused mission to which the company claims to be espoused.

Building Trust

In 2010 Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 brought something unique to the mobile space. The bold marketing which accompanied the product's introduction conveyed Microsoft was serious about mobile. Consumers (though in small numbers) began passionately embracing Microsoft's take on mobile which was drastically different than Apple's and Google's.

The fluid Live Tile-based UI, deeply integrated social networks that merged with the OS and Photo's Hub, Rooms, hubs and more won over many users. Windows Phone was so impressive that the company's Ben Rudolph ran the popular "Smoked by Windows Phone" campaign where random people's iPhone's and Android phones were beaten by Windows phone's at various tasks. Rudolph even replaced the losers "inferior" phones with Windows phones. Was there really once that much pride and confidence in Windows phone?

With Microsoft's apparent full commitment to mobile backing our zeal, fans evangelized the platform and convinced others to try it. We endured the platforms shortcomings and lack of developer support confident that "the next update" or "next flagship" would perhaps level the playing field. We trusted Microsoft.

Losing Trust

We knew that Microsoft couldn't make the market and developers accept Windows phone, but we believed (or hoped) Microsoft would do all that it could to help it succeed. That expectation began fading from view as the reality of Microsoft's weak commitment became apparent.

Though we remained hopeful fans started giving voice to their discontent when they perceived early "betrayals" from Microsoft. Windows Phone's 7.5's leap to Windows Phone 8 stranded fans on devices that could not be upgraded. Windows Phone 7.8, which provided Windows Phone 8 features like resizable tiles, was a bone Microsoft tossed these abandoned users. Sadly, my HTC Titan on ATT never got the 7.8 upgrade.

We understand that Microsoft's move to Windows Phone 8 was a step toward OneCore and hardware requirements necessitated leaving some folks behind. Fans were angered nonetheless, and things didn't get better from there.

Windows Phone 8.1 removed most of the unique aspects of Windows Phone that won users over. For many, Microsoft's "progress" felt either like a bait-and-switch or an abandonment of its own vision. Users complained that Microsoft hooked us with a unique platform only to make it more like iPhone and Android over time.

Paradise Lost

Two casualties of change were the unique social network-integrated People and Photo's Hubs which became more like the functional, but aesthetically bland Contacts and Picture apps for iPhone and Android phones. Microsoft even made systemic UI changes (like hamburger menus) to accommodate app developers that never came.

Technically the eradication of Hubs and other features made updating separate apps easier but made Windows phones less "Windows phone." Enthusiast's feelings of betrayal are rooted in a perception that Microsoft abandoned its unique approach to mobile, and by default, those of us who embraced it.

If Microsoft couldn't stay true to its own unique approach to mobile, how could users remain confident in Microsoft's mobile efforts?

No Microsoft, we're not interested

Confidence inspires trust and people will follow those they trust. As Microsoft began exhibiting behavior that could be interpreted as lack of confidence in its own mobile platform the Windows phone fanbase became more vocal with its discontent.

As the OS became less fluid and less aesthetically "Windows phone" as it became more one OS on its way to OneCore, fans were also wondering where the flagships were. Rivals continued their yearly cadence of flagship releases while Microsoft seemed irrationally (to some) committed to flooding the market with low-end devices.

The long-term effect of Microsoft's low-end strategy

Where was the commitment to go head-to-head with high-end hardware? Did Microsoft doubt its own ability to compete? We must remember that for a time the Windows on phone didn't support the hardware rivals platforms supported. But what about when it did?

A Windows phone fan scorned

The lack of flagships resulted in Windows phones being ignored when it came time to compare the latest flagships.

With Windows phones (and its fans) increasingly becoming the joke of the industry and Microsoft's apparent lack of interest in combating the stigma, many users resolved that if Microsoft didn't care neither should they.

Where was the consumer love Microsoft boasted about? Why wasn't Microsoft putting its billons where its mouth is? The app Bridges were built, but Microsoft has done little to encourage their use. The retrenchment strategy left fans, particularly those in regions where Windows phones had respectable share, with little to no options.

Microsoft's focusing of Windows Mobile on the enterprise was a slap in the face to consumers who still loved the platform. Fan's wanted a phone. Microsoft responded, "No phone for you," with little effort to communicate a commitment to a committed base.

Microsoft: Where is everybody?

I've long advocated that Microsoft has a mobile strategy. Microsoft's Andromeda OS, one Windows platform, on a pocketable telephony-enabled PC with CSHell may be what's next. Here's the problem. Even if this device checks all the boxes, creates new boxes and checks those too, Microsoft has lost the trust of its vocal fanbase.

Does Microsoft still care about Windows phone fans?

Goodwill and word of mouth are more powerful and organic than structured marketing. A product endorsed by family or friends is more likely to be adopted than one that has only the one-sided support of a marketing campaign. Conversely a product condemned by family and friends receives a mark that is hard to erase. The condemnation that fans have laid on Microsoft and its smartphone efforts is bad not only for its future mobile efforts but for the company as a whole. These fans have lost trust in Microsoft.

If Microsoft reenters mobile, it will have to work hard to prove its commitment to its own mobile vision and the consumers it has spurned. A cutting-edge device won't suffice, a relationship is key. I'm reminded of Steve Urkel's persistent pursuit of Laura Winslow from the popular sitcom Family Matters. Urkel's unrelenting persistence and commitment finally won Laura's heart. Can Microsoft do the same for its former fans?

Or does the company's leadership consider the profoundly tiny market represented by Windows phone fans inconsequential to its future in mobile? If so, are they right?

We love the cameras on our smartphones. To many, cameras are an incredibly important factor when it comes to buying a new device. That's not the case with everyone, however. I personally couldn't care less about the camera on my phone, because I rarely use it. I like to experience things in the moment, rather than watch it through my phone's screen.

Regardless, we know a lot of Lumia fans find the camera to be very important. So we're curious, how important would the camera on a Surface phone be to you? If the Surface phone is enterprise-focused, would a good camera really matter all that much? Should all devices have good cameras these days?

I understand that there are many people out there who won't consider a device unless it has a good camera. If so, if the Surface phone had an "average" camera, would that be good enough? Or should Microsoft aim to have the best camera out of all similar devices on the market?

We want to know your thoughts, and our community is already discussing this in our forums. Join in and let us know what you think.

Is the camera on a Surface phone an important factor?

Though Apple is a technological force, the company rarely revolutionizes tech. There's certain to be backlash to that claim, considering the global impact of virtually everything Apple does.

The iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, and iPhone camera mainstreamed various technologies after all. The App Store established the modern consumer-developer-app infrastructure, and ARKit is poised to mainstream augmented reality. Additionally, in an apparent defiance of logic, millions of people will spend $1,000 for an iPhone that was defined as "the future of the smartphone" but described with flagship features standard on smartphones of the past.

That's not necessarily an insult; it's an acknowledgment of how Apple's evolving of technology has made the company great.

Apple: No, we insist, after you

Apple is great at allowing other companies to make the initial investments and to take the initial risks with new technologies.

Companies incur huge research and development costs when implementing new technology. Those costs are augmented by the burden of introducing and educating the market about its benefits. Initial adoption is met with expected bugs and sometimes unexpected user experience challenges that become a barrier to mass adoption.

Apple rarely fumbles through that process with an untried product or feature. It diligently watches the market as new technologies are introduced and tried. Apple then reaps the benefits of not having to make the initial development investments or taking the risks of testing a feature on an untried market.

Apple: We can do anything better than you

Armed with the knowledge of what does and doesn't work, Apple iterates on products or features others introduced or struggled to mainstream.

The company's aptitude for closely developing the software and hardware aspects of an experience are its strength. It endows its implementation of an "old" idea with a degree of synergy its competitors may not. Though it's safe to assume that whenever Apple introduces something "new," you'll see something "old," it will likely be implemented in a way that "just works" in a manner other implementations may not.

Apple marketing positions its new implementation of old tech to be lauded by the market and mainstream media as new. That's frustrating for Windows phone fans (and others) who've been using "Apple's new features" for years on older devices.

When Apple executives define the future of the smartphone by rattling off features standard on the market-rejected Windows phone (and Android phones), fan feathers get ruffled. And not just at Apple for not acknowledging that "Microsoft did it first," but at Microsoft for not doing more in mobile.

Live photos, 3D Touch, universal apps: Apple hijaks Microsoft's lingo

Tap to awake

This year Cook described the iPhone X as "the biggest leap forward since the original iPhone." Apple's Phil Schiller followed and said of the iPhone X's new display, "the point of it is to enable an entirely new experience that's more fluid, more intuitive." Then as an example of that more fluid and intuitive experience, he introduced tap-to-awake. Windows phone fans have been tapping to wake their devices since at least 2013.

So what makes Apple's implementation better? Schiller's introduction of tap-to-awake was the beginning of a broader introduction of the iPhone X's new gesture-focused UI. With a near "edge-to-edge" display (there are still bezels) and no home button, navigation is a collection swipes from various areas of the display.

Apple's tap-to-awake is part of that forward-looking, gesture-focused, UI designed for a button-less interface. Windows phones, by contrast, have always retained capacitive or on-screen buttons. Tap-to-awake in that context is intuitive, yes, but part of a broader, more archaic way of interacting with a button-dependent digital interface. Apple evolved the experience, while Microsoft slept on its lead.

Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) to Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED)

Apple has always used LCD rather than OLED displays on the iPhone (including iPhone 8). This is despite LCD's shortcomings which include greater power demands and more space requirements due to a display-sized backlight inherent to the technology.

OLED displays omit that backlight and use tech where each pixel can light up. This conserves power and space (allowing for thinner devices) and adds benefits such as richer colors, deeper blacks, and whiter whites.

The Lumia 1020, a Windows phone fan favorite, has an AMOLED (Active Matrix Organic Light Emitting Diode) display and launched in 2013. Schiller said that only now, in 2017, is there an OLED display great enough to use on iPhone. Apple claims to have solved common OLED shortcomings such as color inaccuracy.

Here again, it's not the use of OLED displays alone that makes Apple's implementation superior to Microsoft's (and potentially others). It's the synergy with other technologies that make the difference. Apple's True Tone display that provides true to life color accuracy, high resolution HDR, 3D Touch, gesture interaction and more make the synergy of features on the display, this all-important interface to a user's digital content, a step beyond Microsoft's implementation on Windows phones.

Windows Hello and Face ID

Schiller said this year, "Your iPhone is locked until you look at it and it recognizes you. Nothing has ever been simpler, more natural and effortless. We call this Face ID." Microsoft calls similar and older technology Windows Hello. Microsoft made Windows Hello part of Windows 10 and Windows 10 Mobile in 2015.

Windows Hello is an enterprise-grade biometric authentication solution whereas Apple's is consumer-grade. Both technologies use infrared and are capable of recognizing users in the dark. Both accommodate for subtle changes in a user's appearance such as glasses or facial hair. Windows Hello provides access to enterprise-focused scenarios such as network resources, websites and payment instruments. Face ID provides access to Apple Pay and authenticates third-party apps.

Windows Hello can be utilized with millions of PCs with the appropriate integrated or added hardware. Sadly, with a diminishing smartphone presence, Windows Hello is barely represented in the mobile space. Apple's smartphone-based Face ID will likely mainstream facial recognition biometrics in a way Microsoft has not.

Furthermore, Animoji's (animated emoticons), which utilize Apple's facial recognition tech, represent what may be the beginning of what will evolve into responsive digital avatars that will represent users in more complex AR and VR interactions and games in the future.

Qi: Who's in charge?

In 2012 the Lumia 920 was capable of wireless charging. Apple finally brought wireless charging to the iPhone this year. With its market influence and Air Power, a pad that charges several Apple products simultaneously, Apple hopes to advance Qi adoption. Sadly, with its dwindling smartphone presence, Microsoft has little relevance in the wireless charging space.

Windows phone fans shouldn't expect Apple to credit Microsoft (or others) for introducing certain technology first. Apple's improving and mainstreaming tech Microsoft introduced years ago, but failed to improve upon, is Microsoft's fault.

Still, the iPhone X is a mere iterative advance, or evolution, to the rectangular slab smartphone of the past.

Smartphones are dead

Do you think Microsoft's potential Andromeda OS-based mobile device will better represent the future of the smartphone? Let us know in the comments.

I love Windows phone, and I don't want to leave the platform. To be honest, if I do venture to Android it will only be with one of my phone lines. My second phone is my trusty Lumia 1020, which I carry as my business line. So, I carry two Windows phones and it is my primary phone, my precious 1520, that is perishing.

So if I do join team Android, my 1020 will keep me securely anchored on the Windows phone side of the smartphone landscape as well. So it's really only a consideration of a step into Android than jumping in with both feet. Still, you might be whispering, "No Jason, don't do it."

So why would I, long-time advocate and prognosticator of Microsoft's mobile strategy, be looking at Android? Sadly it's a story an increasing number of Windows phone fans have already told.

First things first

My desire for an Android phone isn't an indication that I believe Microsoft has forsaken mobile.

I'm unshaken in my confidence that Microsoft has a mobile strategy (whether it will succeed is another question). Regardless of how often we've been burned by Redmond, many of us still prefer the Windows phone UI and the unfulfilled potential of Live Tiles, OnceCore and UWP. There's nothing wrong with rooting for your love. Even the most jaded among us must admit that if Microsoft really gets mobile and its ecosystem right, then Windows on mobile would be a cool place to hang our hats.

Microsoft needs to leverage partnerships, eSIM and edge computing to position ultramobile PCs

I'm convinced Microsoft's banking on leveraging technologies like edge computing, 5G, IoT and the synergy of Windows 10 features for a future device. Those investments combined with full Windows 10 on ARM on potentially foldable hardware and CShell could bring a unique telephony-enabled PC experience to the mobile space. But it's not here yet and could be canceled even if it's in the pipeline. The canceled Surface Mini and MacLaren are proof of that.

Whether ultramobile PCs make it to market or not, I'll need a new phone soon. As a techie, I'm not adverse to using "the competition." Last year I wrote that my wife, who uses a Lumia 640, wanted to switch to Android. What I didn't tell you is that I was eyeing the Galaxy Note 7 at the same time. Dodged a bullet there, eh?

The only reason I haven't had the latest iPhones and several Android phones over the years is money. Buying all of the new gadgets that catch my eye isn't a cheap endeavor, so my exclusivity to Windows phone has been both by choice and necessity, not blind commitment to Microsoft. Each platform has its strengths. Given my limited resources I've invested in my preferred platform: Windows and Windows phone. But given the dearth of new hardware, the predicted demise of Windows 10 Mobile and the uncertainty of when (or if) what's next is coming; I need to explore my available options.

Oh where, oh where have the Windows phones gone?

There are few remaining options for the Windows phone fan who wants a Windows phone.

The last Lumia was released in 2016. Thus, my chances of getting a brand-spanking new Lumia in 2017 are pretty slim. I could probably find a Lumia 950 XL for a reasonable price. But, I'd be taking a chance on something refurbished or potentially damaged in some way. Virtually any Lumia I could find online comes with similar concerns. I like the reasonably-priced Alcatel Idol 4 S as well, but it falls in the same boat.

The HP Elite x3 for $599 represents the epitome of available Windows phones. As smartphones go, $599 isn't a bad price compared to the $1000 price tags of a Samsung Galaxy Note 8 or Apple iPhone X. But what happens in a little over a year after I've invested $600 in a mobile OS that is no longer supported?

Even if Microsoft debuts a Windows on ARM ultramobile PC in late 2018 or early 2019, I wouldn't be ready to invest the approximate $1000 it would surely cost so soon after dropping $600 on an Elite x3. If I passed on that, then I'd be stuck with a relatively "new," but unsupported x3 with no upgrade path. Thus if I wanted to stay with Windows and maintain support I'd have to go with the potential new and expensive offering. That would be a $1600 investment in mobile in about a year's time. No thanks, I have a family.

At least if I choose a Note 8, I could count on Android being supported beyond 2018 and wouldn't be compelled to get something new just for support.

'Phabulous' Phablet and stylish stylus

I like big phones. When I picked up the 5.7-inch Lumia 950 XL for the first time, it felt small compared to my 6-inch Lumia 1520. Large screens are conducive to how I use smartphones. Web-surfing, messaging, social media and more rank above putting a phone to our ears and yapping away. The more real estate I have, the happier I am.

The 6.3-inch display of the Note 8 is right up my alley. That's plenty room to edit articles, use Twitter, write notes, watch videos, read and more. I've never wanted to replace my 1520 with a smaller device, Windows phone or otherwise. The Note 8 fits my smartphone size requirements nicely.

I'm also pretty excited about using a pen for digital inking. Sure. Samsung's implementation of their S Pen is different than Microsoft's Windows Ink, but there's no Windows phone that supports such a pen, and Microsoft has yet to build support for it into Windows 10 Mobile. So that's that.

Awesome apps

I'm not much of an app user. Like most people I've downloaded far more apps than I use. OneNote, Twitter, Slack, Windows Central, Facebook, Cortana, a selection of Bible apps, and Groove are probably my most used apps. But that's both a reflection of my mobile usage and the state of Windows' ecosystem.

There are times (infrequent I admit) that a business or service advertises an app I'd like to use, but there is no Windows phone app. That's frustrating. I'm guilty of sometimes getting on my Windows phone user soap box, and complaining to an audience of one (my wife who shares my frustration) about how these entities are ignoring our platform. I've even reached out to some of these companies to express a need for a Windows version of their app. I won't have to do that if my daily driver is a Note 8.

Additionally, my wife has had to defer to her Samsung tablet to utilize apps that help with our small business. Office and OneDrive on our Windows phones is great. It's sad that we have to use another platform to gain access to other tools we need. Having everything in one place would be ideal. Microsoft's cross-platform efforts have ensured that we can have that.

Final Analysis

Honestly, $1000 for a Samsung Galaxy Note 8 is an investment I can't make right now. I have a two-year old daughter and another on the way. So though I would love a Note 8, if I can spare anything before my 1520 dies it will likely be invested in an affordable Windows phone. "Why not a cheap Android phone," you ask?

Well, if I'm going to quasi-jump ship to Android I'd like to get what I really want, and that's a Samsung Galaxy Note 8. Until then I'll stay right where I am.

The existence of Microsoft's mobile strategy is debatable. One fact is certain, however, Microsoft needs a mobile device to ensure present and future personal computing relevance.

Smartphones are at the center of technologies that are shaping the future computing landscape. Without a mobile device, Microsoft is solidifying its position as a non-participant in personal computing's consumer-driven future.

A potential ultramobile PC category may help Microsoft and its OEM partners carve out a new, initially niche, telephony-enabled PC category that addresses its absence in mobile but doesn't compete directly with smartphones. PC manufacturer partnerships, electronic or embedded SIM (eSIM), IoT, 5G, edge computing and the synergy of Windows 10 features are all important factors to the long-term positioning of what may potentially become an evolving new PC category.

Assuming this analysis is correct, and results in an actual device, how might Microsoft, OEM partners and Qualcomm position and market ultramobile PCs?

If it's a PC, sell it like a PC

Microsoft must avoid two major pitfalls while executing its mobile strategy. Selling a traditional smartphone against the competition is a no-brainer. The other, presuming ultramobile PCs are the goal, is trying to sell them through traditional smartphone channels. The PC distribution channels Microsoft and its manufacturing partners have established over the past 40 years may prove a more viable strategy.

With Surface and Windows 10, Microsoft inspired partners to build quality 2-in-1s and mobile-oriented PCs that are predicted to remain growing PC segments. These PCs take advantage of Windows 10 features like inking, gaming and more. Ultramobile PCs can be positioned to make use of these successful OEM relationships and range of Windows 10 features.

Existing PC retailers like Best Buy, Staples and Walmart could sell ultramobile PCs to consumers, and existing business-to-business (B2B) channels could sell to the enterprise. Like existing PCs in retail outlets, they can be displayed and packaged with peripherals like monitors, mice and keyboards, like the Continuum-enabled Acer Jade Primo Windows phone. Or like the HP Elite x3, it can be packaged with a Lap Dock-like peripheral. This potentially foldable device could be a tablet when unfolded, a phablet-sized handheld when folded and a laptop or desktop when docked.

Like all technology, over time these devices will become more powerful, and we have evidence that Continuum will become more capable. Consequently, users could potentially create touchdown spots in homes and offices where ultramobile PCs would connect to stationed peripherals in place of old PC towers. Windows 10 on ARM can already run demanding PC tasks such as HD video playback, Inking, Adobe Photoshop, Halo Spartan and Office.

Since the telephony capabilities of ultramobile PCs are not the focus, positioning them as PCs is strategically appropriate and helps avoid carriers as the primary means of distribution.

eSIM and 'bypassing' carriers

Windows 10 on ARM doesn't support telephony yet, but we're conceivably moving swiftly in that direction. With Qualcomm's integrated eSIMs, Microsoft's partners are bringing always-connected, cellular PCs to market beginning this year. eSIMs require less space, allow for lighter and thinner devices, and enable connected devices to be recognized on cellular networks just as traditional SIM cards do. They also allow users greater flexibility with choosing cellular providers. Consumers will have on-device ability to switch between carriers and plans as they see fit and to purchase data directly from the Windows Store.

Microsoft announced carrier and OEM partnerships for cellular PC vision.

eSIMs on tablets are nothing new. But if cellular PCs segue to telephony-enabled ultramobile PCs, the flexibility in carrier choice for voice and not just data helps Microsoft step back into the phone space "from a side door" while still not competing directly with smartphones.

If iPhone and Android phone users purchase an ultramobile PC for PC purposes, they would in effect have a second "phone." This trojan phone effect could be a slow and methodic strategy to bring flexible telephony options to the mobile space.

The GSM Association (GSMA), a body of over 800 mobile carriers, has standardized eSIM guidelines. If Microsoft progresses from eSIM-capable cellular PCs to telephony-enabled ultramobile PCs, it will be following the evolution of supporting technologies.

IoT, 5G and the edge of the cloud

Edge computing allows IoT and connected devices with increasingly powerful processors, that are close to users, to handle much of the processing previously relegated to the cloud.

Reduced latency (time it takes data to reach connected devices), increased processing power and proactive abilities of AI on devices on the clouds edge (like mobile devices) are some advantages of edge computing.

What is Microsoft's intelligent edge and how does it affect mobile?

Qualcomm's CEO Steve Mollenkopf describes it this way:

The imminent implementation of 5G networks will add more capacity and greater data rates to the lower latency that edge computing enables. Mollenkopf says data centers can "essentially be moved closer to where data is used making distributed computing happen." Ultramobile PCs as part of distributed networks could be one business model Microsoft envisions. Monitoring and acting upon the real-time status of equipment or processes may be more efficient on such devices in that context.

Living on the edge

Ultramobile PCs would be positioned (with billions of other IoT devices) on the edge of Microsoft's cloud.

This perspective potentially reveals how Microsoft's cloud strategy works in accord with its mobile objectives. A new category of highly mobile PCs that take advantage of the processing power on the intelligent edge could leverage AI and other high-data processing tasks.

Microsoft may envision a consumer model where ultramobile PCs proactively communicate with connected cars (for which Microsoft provides cloud support) or a growing number of other connected consumer appliances and IoT devices.

If this view is accurate Microsoft's cloud initiatives are forward-looking and foundational to a potential mobile computing paradigm which benefits from edge computing, 5G networks, Microsoft's cloud and Qualcomm's vision of mobile computing's future.

Windows 10, a synergy of features

Microsoft's personal computing strategy is driven by its one-Windows vision to bring the power of Windows to all form factors.

I believe Microsoft intends for ultramobile PCs to present a synergy of Windows 10 features. They would be a single device useful for a range of creative, productive and leisure purposes, including:

• Windows Ink and digital notepads.
• Windows Mixed Reality and virtual and augmented reality handsets.
• Continuum and desktop or laptop PCs.
• Windows gaming and Xbox as a powerful gaming platform.
• Composable Shell (CShell) as a consistent context-conforming UI experience.
• Cloud and AI to leverage Microsoft's Azure, AI and edge computing investments.

The synergy of these features on unique PC form factors optimizes the benefits of edge computing that may make this device Nadella's ultimate mobile device.

Such a device would not categorically be a productivity, leisure, business or consumer device. It would be all these things. Microsoft and its partners could potentially market the unique experience Windows 10 ultramobile PCs may offer.

Following the breadcrumbs

This speculative analysis offers an outlook of how current and evolving technological infrastructure could support the positioning and distribution of a new telephony-enabled PC category.

With a Windows 10-driven strategy, and eSIM, IoT, edge computing and unique hardware investments, Microsoft may be en route to Nadella's ultimate mobile device.

Optimism means hopefulness and confidence about the future or successful outcome of something. Many Windows phone fans, even some who've switched platforms, hope Microsoft's mobile efforts will yield some form of success.

Even a niche market where Microsoft provides a mobile device creates first-party UWP apps, invests in the app bridges and markets its platform with no illusions of overtaking the iPhone and Android would be welcomed by some. That's just a hope that fans have demanded of Microsoft, but at this point, isn't something many expect. There's little optimism or confidence about the future success of Microsoft's mobile strategy.

Mobile strategy required

Few people believe Microsoft even has a mobile strategy. Blog posts, social media commentary, forum content and more reveal just how cynical most people are about Microsoft and mobile. Microsoft burned millions of fans who bought into and advocated for a platform the company has only seemed partially committed to after all.

Still, can Microsoft not have a mobile play in a personal computing age where emerging technologies revolve around smartphones? If Microsoft hopes for relevance in a future of ambient computing by integrating with technologies such as smart homes, in-car computing, IoT devices and more, a mobile device is crucial.

The company's consistent statements about its commitment to mobile, its technological investments and CEO Satya Nadella's promise of mobile devices suggest that this multi billion dollar company's leaders realize mobile is as important as many Windows phone fans believe it is. Still, should fans be optimistic about Microsoft's mobile strategy?

Wait, is there a mobile strategy?

That's a good question, and it's up for debate. I've been a Windows phone user for eleven years and have experienced first-hand Microsoft's endless promises, constant failures, disappointing level of commitment and the limited supply of Windows phones.

The strategy's poor execution was accentuated by hardware requirements and a licensing fee that made getting support from OEMs that used the free and customizable Android, difficult for this late entrant into the consumer smartphone space.

A reluctance to embrace its own Universal Windows Platform (UWP) by not launching first-party Universal Windows apps didn't invoke confidence in UWP for developers, OEMs or fans. Enthusiasts have also contended with feelings of betrayal as Nadella's "best-on-Windows-Microsoft-experience" promise, never materialized as Microsoft populated iOS and Android with a parade of Microsoft apps.

To top this all off Microsoft's retrenchment strategy was supposed to ensure Windows phones for Windows fans, the enterprise and value consumers. Unfortunately the last Lumia launched in 2016. Finding Windows phones is getting harder, and ironically not even the Microsoft Store carries them.

When we take all of this, and Windows 10 Mobile's imminent post-2018 demise, into account Microsoft's mobile strategy has clearly failed, and the company seems content to let first-party devices fade off the scene. Though OEMs like Alcatel, HP and WileyFox are still investing in Windows 10 Mobile, it seems that Microsoft isn't. So should Windows phone fans be optimistic about Microsoft's mobile strategy given this track record?

Just the facts

Considering the above some may be wondering if there's still a mobile strategy for which a Windows phone fan can be optimistic? That question can be answered with an objective observation of these facts:

• Microsoft's early foray into mobile had the goal of replicating the Windows PC experience on a telephony-enabled pocketable device to what extent was possible given technological limits of the time.
• Microsoft pursued and achieved OneCore to create a Universal Window Platform (UWP) that enables development across form factors.
• Microsoft brought full Windows 10 to ARM which enables always-connected PCs of various form factors and great battery life.
• Continuum allows a pocketable Windows device to connect to monitor, mouse and keyboard to provide a desktop experience. The Continuum experience is getting features like proximity connect and becoming more PC-like with multiple resizable Windows, taskbar app pinning and more.
• As recently as this year Nadella reiterated Microsoft is bringing new devices to market that are not like typical smartphones and that Continuum will enable users to use a mobile device as his only PC.
• Composable Shell (CSHell) brings the same experiences across all Windows devices.

CShell and advanced Continuum.

Some of these facts can be viewed as disparate entities with no ties to one another. Or they can be viewed as having a synergistic relationship with the goal of creating the type of mobile device Microsoft envisioned years ago and that Nadella expressed he's targeting: a pocketable telephony-enabled device that can be a PC.

Should Windows phone fans be optimistic about Microsoft's mobile strategy? I contend that an observer needn't be optimistic at all, in order to follow these facts to the logical conclusion of what Microsoft's strategy may be given these investments.

Optimism not required

An objective observation of the above facts, absent any optimistic presumptions of success, leads to a logical conclusion: Microsoft's original vision of a pocketable, telephony-enabled mobile device with the power of Windows is still Microsoft's goal. This is especially apparent in light of Nadella's statement of imminent Continuum-enabled devices with a unique form factor.

Continuum, Windows 10 on ARM, CSHell and OneCore, are all actual investments by Microsoft and would enable this vision in a way it couldn't be implemented nearly 20 years ago. Nadella's assertion that a Continuum-enabled device that will be able to be a user's only PC supports the analysis that that device will be a PC, albeit one with telephony and which conforms to a user's context.

Joe Belfiore's Windows on ARM comments support Pocket PC vision

Now given Microsoft's history of failures, lack of follow-through and commitment, even if this is the goal, it could fail as a result of internal forces alone. It could also be canceled just before launch like the McLaren and Surface Mini.

What should be clear to any reader, however, is that your observation of the facts that lead to this particular strategy analysis are not an indication that you are by default advocating that it will succeed.

You are simply observing the facts, and following them to their logical conclusion for what they suggest may be Microsoft's mobile strategy. You don't have to be optimistic, nor do you have to be pessimistic for that matter. You can just state what it appears Microsoft's mobile strategy is and then enjoy watching to see how it all plays out.

Microsoft has spent the last two years alienating its phone fan base and developer community on mobile, leaving a tiny handful of third-party hardware OEMs to keep Windows 10 Mobile on life support, while popular services like Flipboard and Spotify abandon the platform. Anyone following Microsoft's moves in this space would be forgiven for assuming the company had zero aspirations of getting back into the phone game.

But, still, there are genuine reasons to believe Microsoft wants to stay in the game, and that the company is just pouring its energy into something truly different.

In this article, we assume the Surface Phone is a real thing that will be released. Join us for a healthy dose of speculation as to how Microsoft could leverage the bits and pieces of Windows 10 to create something that finds its way into people's pockets despite the adversity of the task ahead.

True productivity on mobile

With the Surface Laptop, Studio, Pro, and Book, you could argue that Redmond was playing on its home turf, PCs, while leveraging its knowledge and consumer confidence in the business, education, and prosumer markets. When it comes to phones and mobile devices, confidence in Microsoft couldn't possibly be lower.

That's why the Surface Phone has to aggressively not be a "phone," but something different, maybe even something that you'll want to carry around alongside an iPhone or Android device. To that end, the Surface Phone has to settle niche use cases that iPhone and Android devices don't achieve very well.

Using a BlackBerry KEYone phone with a full QWERTY keyboard, I have found myself doing something I'd never attempt on touch-screen keyboards on Windows 10 Mobile, Android, or iOS: word processing full articles.

Word for phones is great on all platforms, but software keyboards just suck for anything long form, especially when you're a touch typist. I'm not suggesting Microsoft should make a BlackBerry phone, but full keyboards could be a way of promoting the Surface "Phone" as something more akin to a laptop or 2-in-1, for people who want to get work done on the go.

Microsoft has piles of patents that could lead to this sort of device. Multi-screen configurations, kickstands, the Surface Connector, and type covers could help the Surface Phone take on a 2-in-1 form factor.

Our Senior Editor Zac Bowden has shown how CShell versions of Windows 10 can [conform to different screen sizes and different orientations. Windows 10 Mobile has very poor landscape support, which would be required for this sort of play; with CShell it would "just work."

Any sort of Surface Phone would probably be on the larger side of things, aimed at the same consumers the Samsung Galaxy Note targets.

It could be that the Surface Phone pushes the boundaries of what "phablet" truly means, as it attempts to shrug off accusations of being a "phone." Bigger devices mean more I/O ports, more screen real estate for multiple windows (something else CShell will help support), and inking while retaining legacy phone features such as cellular and calls (likely via a bundled hands-free headset, like the HP Elite x3).

Windows 10 on ARM chipsets opens up a lot of possibility for mobile productivity. Microsoft has already demonstrated Photoshop and full Office running on ARM, and if you're throwing in inking, a Surface Phone could be the pocket sketchpad of an artist's dreams.

That's the thing about the Surface Phone and Windows 10 for ARM or Shell, it can afford to provide for a wide variety of prosumer niche use cases without gunning for the "hip and cool" Snapchat crowd, which is where Lumia utterly failed.

Surface Phone as an Xbox handheld?

If my recent travel to IFA 2017 is any indication, gaming has become increasingly critical to Microsoft's growth aspirations. In every single keynote I went to, a significant portion, if not half or more, revolved around gaming PCs and peripherals. Windows Mixed Reality head mounted displays (HMDs) are designed for gaming, and Microsoft was by no means shy to flaunt its partnership with Steam – PC's biggest gaming distribution platform – for Windows Mixed Reality headsets.

It's the Steam partnership that is particularly interesting to me, given the icy comments from Steam maker Valve's CEO, Gabe Newell, about the very notion of Microsoft running its own app stores on Windows.

Perhaps Valve realized that the growth of Windows is also the growth of Valve and that the future of core gaming itself might rest in the cooperation of these two companies. Neither has a foothold in mobile.

It cannot be a coincidence that Steam is not only working with Microsoft on VR but also to bring cross-network capabilities to Steam and the Universal Windows Platform (UWP) on the Windows 10 Store. Valve and Microsoft are working together, and it seems to be out of pure necessity to help Windows grow. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Steam itself become installable from the Windows 10 Store in the near future, and that would certainly be ideal for a family of devices running Windows 10 on ARM.

As Microsoft barrels ahead with the 4K, six-teraflops (TF) Xbox One X, Nintendo launched a tablet of all things, powered by previous-gen graphics and relatively weak hardware. It sold 1.5 million units in just a few months.

Part of that is the quality of its library, catering to a fanbase it has nurtured for decades, but also because Nintendo went for something different, designed to be a companion to the Xbox One and PlayStation 4, rather than attack them.

Microsoft's re-emergence in mobile must follow a similar path. Perhaps a powerful tablet phone 2-in-1 that has the ability to run real games, not Candy Crush, could give the Surface Phone and similar OEM partner devices another feather in their caps of varied niche use cases.

Envision a Surface Phone on the train, folded in tent mode, an Xbox controller connected, running full Steam, capable of playing classic or even well-optimized current-gen games. Perhaps even some sort of Xbox controller attachment could replace a second screen, if the Surface Phone followed some of the "Microsoft Courier"-like patents we've seen.

I was able to run Overwatch on the GPD Win six-inch gaming clamshell with Intel integrated graphics and enjoy games that were extremely popular in the Xbox 360 era. As Snapdragon chipsets get even more powerful and cooling technology gets further miniaturized, it stands to reason that more and more Steam games could become compatible with devices that use Windows 10 on ARM.

The fact that Microsoft demonstrated World of Tanks Blitz running on Windows 10 on ARM when it debuted the OS should not be seen as a coincidence. I'm not suggesting running Steam on a phone is going to be a use case every PC and Xbox gamer rushes towards, but it would be another niche the Surface Phone or similar OEM devices could fill. Microsoft knows gaming is one of the only ways Windows still appeals to a wide consumer audience, and as we've already seen with Mixed Reality, leveraging that is a no-brainer for any new device category.

The Mixed Reality angle

If we're assuming the Surface Phone is a larger phone or tablet device with higher-end hardware, it could end up being powerful enough for more advanced Mixed Reality features, providing the missing link in Microsoft's wider MR play.

While Microsoft flirts with HMDs and bides its time with a consumer version of HoloLens, Apple and Google both plow ahead with their own brands of augmented reality (AR), ARKit and ARCore. People have their cell phones with them all day, every day, which will lead to wider adoption of iOS and Android AR solutions versus Microsoft's menagerie of headsets.

Even if the Kinect-spawned Windows Mixed Reality spatial awareness cameras are far more powerful than AR powered by a smartphone, the biggest AR apps today are on mobile, including Pokémon Go and Snapchat's lame face filters.

Perhaps the Surface Phone could have more powerful spatial awareness, complete with a separate AI coprocessor, as teased for the next version of HoloLens. This would give it a clear advantage over iPhone and Android solutions.

One user could be wearing a HoloLens, while another could use a Windows Mixed Reality phone as a literal window into the virtual world, collaborating on a project, sending new holograms into the Mixed Reality world or tweaking existing ones.

HoloLens has seen the most growth in businesses thus far, where different companies use 3D models to replace physical ones, training staff on how to repair complex and expensive machines without having to actually provide physical samples. Adding tablets into the mix with similar features will open up wider opportunities for on-the-go collaborative Mixed Reality experiences.

Putting a window to Mixed Reality in your pocket is far easier than carrying around an HMD in scenarios where it might be inappropriate.

Microsoft must be in mobile

Microsoft's retrenchment in mobile has been a legendary sore point for the company.

The burning of Microsoft's bridges with developers, the negative PR as large entities pull out of huge phone contracts, and the near-memetic status of "Windows Phones" that has become synonymous with utter failure will not make any Surface Phone push an easy one.

Microsoft has to be in mobile. It is the focal point of all consumer IoT devices, where Microsoft has failed. It is the focal point of connected A.I. assistants like Cortana, where Microsoft also failed. And it's the center of AR, where Microsoft could also fail.

Microsoft places the Azure cloud platform at the center of its "Intelligent Edge" diagram, revealing how inwardly the company thinks. For every Microsoft customers, a mobile phone is a central aspect, connecting them to their hobbies, work agendas, social lives, and beyond. This isn't going to change for a long time.

Not being in mobile, even in a small way, will cost Microsoft and its OEM partners the future of computing, and I'd hate to think Redmond is arrogant and ignorant enough to think that it can be a platform holder in this space without having a device you carry around with you everywhere. That's not a laptop and it's not a headset. Having those features native to the OS is always going to be more powerful than putting them on the iOS and Android app stores.

Nobody outside Microsoft knows whether its folding-phone patent will ever turn into a product, or whether we'll ever see "Surface" as a brand attached to a pocket PC. But if so, it could be a truly pivotal device, spawning a new category of OEM PCs — and a world of new opportunities.

Microsoft did something right when it introduced Windows Phone 7 and the unique Live tile UI. The passion of the Windows phone fan base is proof of that. The information-laden, touch-friendly Start screen was a futuristic departure from the mundane, icon-based UI of the iPhone and hordes of Android phones already on the market.

Users became enamored with the dynamically updating tiles that surfaced news headlines, album art and current song, text messages, email summaries, missed calls, and social media notifications. Live tiles enabled apps that could be "engaged" by users before they were launched. This was a win-win for users and developers. Apps pinned to the home screen vied for a user's engagement by dynamically supplying information. This is a more proactive model for garnering app engagement than the static icon-based UI of iPhones and Android phones. And of course, the early smartphone OSes got the market-share worm. That's bad news for Window phone enthusiasts who want a smartphone.

After years of fighting for market share, Microsoft's mobile efforts seem to be taking an ultra-mobile PC-focused course. Microsoft is done, it seems, with traditional smartphones. But some Windows phone fans still want a plain old, rectangular slab sporting those Live Tiles and fluid UI they love.

The problem is, Microsoft has made finding a smartphone with its mobile OS almost as hard as finding a needle in a haystack.

Now you see them, now you don't

Two years ago Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella communicated that Microsoft was retrenching its mobile efforts from the consumer space.

The news was bad but not devastating. You see, Microsoft promised a few things to assuage those concerned about what retrenchment meant for the company's mobile presence.

Microsoft would continue making phones for three categories of users: value consumers, Windows fans, and the enterprise. This strategy's bright side was that Microsoft was only referring to its first-party smartphones. Manufacturing partners could continue making Windows phones for consumers or the enterprise. Over a dozen OEMs did just that. To convey Microsoft's commitment to mobile, Nadella made the memorable promise that if no one else made Windows phones, Microsoft would. Microsoft kept that promise until the last Lumia, the enterprise-focused Lumia 650 released in early 2016.

The Lumia 550, released in 2015, was the last smartphone made for value consumers. And the much maligned 950 and 950 XL were the last smartphones Microsoft released for Windows fans. Of the three, the Lumia 950 for $399 is the only one in stock in the Microsoft online store.

From bad to worse

To add insult to injury, the retrenchment strategy became a full retreat that created an even deeper wedge between Microsoft's mobile efforts and consumers. Microsoft publically announced that Windows 10 Mobile was focused on the enterprise and not the consumer space.

Windows Mobile and enterprise, out of sight out of mind

This signaled to OEM partners, developers and any consumers that were paying attention that Microsoft's mobile OS wasn't meant for the all-important consumer space. This move effectively cut off current and future support these entities would have brought the platform. Windows phones became an even riskier investment for OEM partners, and consequently, even harder to find.

Sadly, the New York City Police department's dropping of 36,000 Windows phones in favor of the iPhone reflects how Microsoft even dropped the ball in the enterprise and in government, its forte.

Partners doing their part

A host of OEMs have tried to make a mark with Windows phones.

Acer, Nuans, Lenovo, Sony and many others have struggled against the barriers of a challenging market and seeming ambivalence from Microsoft.

A future of partnerships and a possibile Surface phone

Alcatel and HP are the OEM partners with the most appealing devices and broadest distribution. For the enthusiast, the HP Elite x3 is a desirable device, but its enterprise focus and high price tag put it beyond consumers' reach. Alcatel's Idol 4S and the European version the Idol 4 Pro are consumer-focused devices with a more appealing price tag.

The older Alcatel One Touch Fierce XL may even appeal to some fans if they can find one.

But I still want a Windows phone!

Despite all of these challenges, there are those who still clamor for a Windows phone.

Unfortunately, the newest first-party device they can get is the year-old enterprise-focused Lumia 650. The two-year old Lumias 950 and 950 XL flagships and the Lumia 550 are the next best options for those seeking "new-ish" first-party Windows phones.

Zeroing in on what an enthusiast wants is easier than getting what he wants. Distribution channels for Windows phones are so limited that most Windows phones, even when new, weren't carried by all, or in some cases any, carriers. The Lumia 950 was available on AT&T, while the 950 XL was limited to Microsoft Stores. Neither of these physical outlets currently carry a Windows phone of any type.

The best option for enthusiasts who want a first-party Windows phone is to order from the online Microsoft Store, Amazon, eBay or some other website.

While Windows phone fans struggle to get an old, used or refurbished first-party Windows phone (and hope that it works), Samsung and Apple will soon release their newest smartphones on all carriers. Our friends, families, neighbors and coworkers will walk into their nearest mall and walk out with a brand-spanking new iPhone or Galaxy Note.

But, whatever, right? They're not Windows phones.

Dawn of a new day

Microsoft has repeatedly suggested that it's done with smartphones. The company seems ambivalent to users who want a Windows-based smartphone as it prepares for what's next.

There's reason to believe that telephony-enabled ultramobile PCs represent the direction the company's going in. If true, the distribution relationship with carriers, which seems to have been sacrificed with Microsoft's forsaken smartphone efforts, may not matter. Ultramobile PCs may be distributed through the same channels PC partners currently distribute PCs. For now, a user who wants a Windows phone will have limited success with carriers but can certainly find a Windows phone if they look hard enough.

Is Microsoft Strangling Windows phone to prepare for concept of a Surface 'phone'?

As time goes on, however, and Windows phones continue to vanish, the search will become more difficult.

In July, Belfiore stated:

Belfiore makes several points:

• Microsoft has Windows 10 Mobile for phone experiences.
• Window 10 on ARM is for desktop experiences.
• WOA is for always-connected PC experiences and great battery life.

Some people believe Belfiore's statements preclude the possibility of a modular version of Windows that will run on all form factors, including a pocketable telephony-enabled device. So how do we reconcile Belfiore's "we have Windows 10 Mobile for the phone experience", with the expectation of a modular form of Windows on a potential telephony-enabled pocket PC?

We have Windows 10 Mobile for that

Belfiore's statements regarding Windows 10 Mobile were referring to its present and immediate future, not the long-term.

We know that Windows 10 Mobile will remain supported as the phone experience until its imminent demise after 2018 when support for the mobile OS ends. Until that time it, not full Windows 10 on ARM, is what Microsoft has for the phone experience.

I believe Belfiore's statements, like those of many high-level executives, were carefully crafted. He technically spoke the truth about Windows 10 on ARM while retaining the secrecy of Microsoft's plans for Windows 10 Mobile.

Earlier this month, Zac Bowden's sources confirmed our ongoing analysis that Windows 10 Mobile will be replaced by a full version of Windows that will run on all form factors as Microsoft continues its Windows-on-mobile strategy.

Even if Windows 10 Mobile succeeded Microsoft would have pursued a post smartphone strategy

Windows 10 on ARM is for ARM-based PC experiences

Belfiore stressed: "The Windows 10 on ARM effort is about enabling the PC experience on devices that are built on ARM so that they're connected all the time and have great battery life."

Belfiore's assertion in no way contradicts the analysis that Microsoft's vision for full Windows 10 on all form factors will include a Continuum- and telephony-enabled pocket PC running CShell. In fact, it reinforces Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella's assertion that Continuum-enabled mobile devices will be able to serve as a user's only PC.

To enable the full mobility of a device that will act as a full PC and have mobile capabilities, Windows 10 would need to run on ARM, have constant connectivity and great battery life. If we view Microsoft's strategy as bringing a PC to the mobile space and not that of forcing full Windows 10 on a phone (as some incorrectly assume I'm proposing) Belfiore's statements begin to fall into place.

Yes, Microsoft's investments in Windows 10 on ARM have an immediate application in the form of the cellular PCs we will see this year. This phase in Microsoft's mobile strategy is about enabling the PC experience on ARM-based laptops, tablets, and 2-in-1s. The parallel here is that Microsoft's goal is also to enable the PC experience on Continuum-enabled pocketable ARM-based Windows devices.

When we take a holistic view of Microsoft's investments, we realize that its Continuum strategy — making a mobile device a full PC experience — and its Windows 10 on ARM strategy in bringing the full PC experience to ARM-based devices, are invariably connected.

The power of a PC with CShell and Continuum

If a Continuum-enabled mobile device is to replace a user's PC, that mobile device must be a full PC. Thus, we must recognize that Microsoft's strategy is likely that of optimizing a PC for the mobile space and adding mobile functionality. The distinction between this and cramming Windows 10 on a phone cannot be overstated.

Nadella's vision for Continuum as a means for a user to have a full PC experience necessitates that the mobile device in-hand has the power of a PC. Continuum is simply the medium to convey that PC power to a desktop context when connected to a monitor, mouse, and keyboard or Lap Dock-like device.

Why Windows 10 S, Project Centennial are critical to Continuum's success

CShell will ensure that the UI and OS conform to a user's context. Readers concerned about a desktop experience on small screen needn't be. The UI when not in Continuum mode would be mobile- and touch-friendly.

Yeah, I know, the app gap

None of this directly addresses the app gap problem. The strategy does benefit from Microsoft's investments in Windows 10 S as a means to modernize the PC experience, however. Windows 10 S runs only Store apps and potentially creates an incentive for developers to use Project Centennial to begin converting Win32 apps to UWP apps.

Windows 10 S breathes new life into UWP — and paves the way for 'Surface phone'

The modernization of Win32 apps would help populate the Windows Store and could potentially encourage other developers to begin developing UWP apps.

Full migration to UWP makes apps more secure and enables Windows 10 features like notifications, Cortana integration, live tiles and a XAML interface.

A growing ecosystem of UWP apps could encourage mobile app developers to develop for this ultramobile PC category with telephony and a mobile form factor and context-conforming UI.

Wrap up

Microsoft's strategy, I believe, is the unprecedented synergy or merger of a mobile and PC effort. It's an uphill battle that isn't targeting the iPhone or Android phones. It's about carving out a position for a new type of telephony-enabled PC with support from OEM partners. There are no guarantees but if that proves to be a solid, albeit initially small market, it may be stable enough for developers to target these ultramobile PCs with mobile-specific apps as well.

Belfiore's statements stress the importance of the PC experience which is core to Microsoft's Continuum-powered one device for all scenarios strategy. This Windows 10 with CShell ultramobile PC will, in my estimation, be an evolving category. Like most tech, it won't upon introduction be in power and capabilities what it is ultimately intended to be.

Belfiore's Windows 10 on ARM statements, UWP, what we know of Windows Mobile's imminent demise, CShell and Andromeda and the role of Continuum in Microsoft's mobile strategy are the foundation to this device category.

Joe Belfiore's statements, support rather than contradict this analysis.

This is not some arbitrary claim pulled from thin air. Windows Chief Terry Myerson said as much when Microsoft watcher Mary Jo Foley asked him why Microsoft continues releasing builds for the platform when it had just one percent market share.

Terry replied:

I know using a platform you love, in which a company's only interest is to maintain technical relevance for future devices is an awkward position to be in.

It's also difficult for some fans to accept that this positioning of Windows 10 Mobile invariably suggests that the OS will be allowed to die (just like its Windows-on-mobile predecessors) once it fulfills its current purpose.

Microsoft's no longer trying to advance Windows 10 Mobile in the market, but it was only part of the company's mobile strategy anyway.

Windows (on) phone isn't dead - and may never die

Still in the game

Though Windows 10 Mobile's approaching an end, Myerson provided the consolation that just as previous iterations of Windows-on-mobile died and were followed by another OS, there will be a successor.

Myerson's reference to future devices, coupled with CEO Satya Nadella's acknowledgment of the same as recently as May assures us that Microsoft will not be abandoning mobile when Windows 10 Mobile is no more.

This is reassuring, and bittersweet for those who enjoy Microsoft's platform. After years of struggles, Windows phone fans must brace for Windows 10 Mobile's demise. The potential for something better, presumably in the form of full Windows 10 on ARM on form-shifting ultramobile PCs does, however, point a way forward.

Still, would Microsoft be pursuing such an ambitious post-smartphone strategy if Windows 10 Mobile had not failed? Yes, I believe it would.

Stay the course

A look back to the 1990's at Pocket PCs reveals Microsoft has always envisioned Windows on a pocketable device. Every iteration of the platform on mobile devices has been an attempt to achieve that dream. Pocket PC, Windows Mobile, Windows Phone and now Windows 10 Mobile have all had varying degrees of success but have all ultimately failed.

Ideally, OneCore, (where technically Windows 10 Mobile and Windows 10 are both simply Windows) would have given Windows 10 Mobile an edge.

On paper Windows 10 Mobile, because of the Universal Windows Platform (UWP), would have been a beneficiary of apps designed for Windows 10 with minor tailoring for the small screen. It would have also been (on paper) simultaneously developed with Windows 10 thereby reaping the benefits of the evolution of the platform.

Finally, the familiarity of Windows 10 among consumers was supposed to make Windows 10 Mobile both more familiar and appealing to the masses. None of this happened as planned.

Still, Microsofts vision has always been one Windows on all form factors. And when I say Windows, I mean Windows, not the pseudo version that is Windows 10 Mobile. This is why Microsoft continued pursuing ways to get full Windows on smaller, lighter, ARM-based, cellular-connected devices despite the fact Windows 10 Mobile existed.

I believe that Microsoft acknowledges Windows 10 Mobile as an achievement, but not a full realization of the Windows on all form factors dream.

So am I saying that Windows 10 Mobile was merely a transitory OS on the way to full Windows on a pocketable device? No, I am not.

Windows 10 Mobile and full Windows on ARM, dynamic duo

I believe Microsoft's plan "A," if Windows 10 Mobile had succeeded, was to continue its implementation on smartphones (and small tablets) for as long as the smartphone market thrived.

Microsoft hoped Windows 10 Mobile would be a successful third smartphone platform besides Android and iOS.

This would have ensured a market presence, mindshare and a growing ecosystem while Microsoft continued with the other phase of its mobile strategy. Smartphones weren't the end game folks.

Full Windows on ARM is the route to Windows on all form factors; something Windows 10 Mobile on smartphones had not achieved. Though it is Windows, Windows 10 Mobile never had full parity with Windows PCs.

Making PCs pocketable, not cramming full Windows on phones

It's important to understand that this facet of what I believe was Microsoft's original mobile plan was not a redundancy. There was no attempt to bring full Windows to "phones." Microsoft had Windows 10 Mobile for phones.

It is, however, an attempt to optimize Windows on cellular-connected hardware to a point where PCs could be moved into smaller mobile form factors with the addition of telephony.

Unique PC form factors, on pocketable devices with Continuum and context-conforming CShell I believe has long been Microsoft's goal.

Skype sets a precedence for making phone calls on PCs.

I know it's challenging for some readers to visualize the difference between this and bringing full Windows to a phone. The simplest way to put it is to consider the starting point.

Microsoft's not starting with a smartphone and cramming a PC OS onto it and calling it a PC. It's starting with a PC, optimizing it for ARM and cellular connectivity and giving it a form-factor that is pocketable while adding phone attributes such as telephony, and acknowledging it as what it is, a PC.

This analysis is consistent with Joe Belfiore's statement that full Windows on ARM is for PC's and not phones. The device I'm describing is a PC.

What could have been

I believe if Windows 10 Mobile had succeeded Microsoft would've had two telephony capable mobile devices on the market: smartphones running Windows 10 Mobile and ultramobile PCs running full Windows on ARM. If this scenario had played out, Microsoft's first-party aspirational devices for each category would have been reference points for OEM partners.

Smartphones running Windows 10 Mobile would have been the more affordable of the device types. Ultramobile PCs would command a premium price. Microsoft's long-term goal, I believe, would have been for form-shifting ultramobile PCs to represent the future-in-the-present as the one device that could be all devices: smartphone, small tablet, and PC via Continuum.

Microsoft's representation in the market with the current device paradigm, smartphones, while also positioning what it believes to be their natural successor, ultramobile PCs, would have been a strategic advantage for Microsoft.

Salvaging what's left and doing their best

Since Windows 10 Mobile failed I believe Microsoft's still pursuing its full Windows on ARM on ultramobile PC strategy. It's just doing so without the benefits a successful smartphone platform would have added to the equation. It's also gleaning all it can from Windows 10 Mobile and its users before allowing it to die.

This push forward with part of its mobile plan after Windows 10 Mobile's failure may seem desperate, even foolhardy to some. But regardless of the success of its cross-platform efforts and integration of rival platforms in its Microsoft Graph, without its own mobile play, Microsoft's relevance in personal computing would continue to diminish. Microsoft has to do something, which is why they would've been pursuing a post-smartphone strategy with Windows 10 Mobile or not.

Apple, Samsung, and 4K-camera manufacturer RED are poised to release new smartphones in the coming months that cost much more than $1,000. While opening a new premium market will cause a lot of haranguing, the move is good for Microsoft, which is likely to follow in 2018 when it may re-enter the mobile market.

The question is not if consumers will pay that much for mobile technology – they will – but just how long will it be before all manufacturers are on board with ultra-premium mobile hardware?

A Surface for your pocket

Reports from our internal sources suggest that Microsoft is on track to re-enter the mobile smartphone market sometime in 2018, possibly in the first half of the year. Rumors of a "Surface phone" are as old as rumors of new Star Wars sequels, with the caveat that the latter is actually happening.

Nonetheless, Microsoft has gone on record numerous times to say it is not finished with the mobile space and that it will re-enter the category with a new type of device. Presumably, the company won't call it a phone to distance itself both from high-end competitors such as Samsung and Apple, and its depressed history in the smartphone arena.

While bits of the Surface mobile device are trickling out – it will likely have a foldable display making it part tablet, part phablet like what they use in the HBO show Westworld with full Windows 10 – one thing we do know is it will not be cheap.

The Surface brand has always been a premium one, for multiple reasons. For one, they are just high-end devices with exceptional precision engineering, but also because Microsoft is not poised to undercut its PC partners. Microsoft Surface is about setting an example. They are aspirational devices and are not about gaining significant market share. Gaining mindshare, however, is vital.

Why the Windows 10 'Creators Update' should inspire PC makers

Assuming Redmond releases a hybrid Windows 10 and a cellular device that sports a pen and foldable display, pricing would have to start at $1,000 and go higher once storage and processor configurations are taken into account.

The problem should be obvious for Microsoft. Smartphones are currently falling below $1,000, peaking at the $899 mark. Were the company to bust on the scene – especially after failed attempts in the past – with a phone-like device costing over $1,000 the PR would be disastrous.

Luckily, it is looking like Microsoft won't have to go first.

RED's Hydrogen One and Apple's new iPhone set the premium path

In July 2017, high-end camera company RED suddenly announced it was taking preorders for its new smartphone dubbed the Hydrogen One. Not only does RED have zero experience in making phones, but without even a press event or showing what the device looks like, the company started taking preorders.

The price? The aluminum model sets you back $1,195, while the titanium edition is a whopping $1,595. Those charges could go up with the note on the ordering page that "current pricing is available for a limited time only."

Yikes.

Featuring some form of Android, a high-end camera, and a "mold shattering" holographic display, the RED Hydrogen One could be a massive entrance for the famed hardware company. Or not. No one knows as the company has no history of making gear in this form factor.

Apple, meanwhile, will reportedly sell a new iPhone this fall in the $1,200 range. Rumors suggest a near-bezel-less display, wireless charging, facial recognition, and more. While all that technology has been around for years, we've all heard the joke that it doesn't count until Apple "invents it for the first time."

Samsung is also rumored to be getting in on the high-end market with a forthcoming Galaxy Note 8 that could cost $1,000.

While low-end and mid-range smartphones will continue to permeate the market (and sell the most inventory), make no mistake, we are entering the ultra-premium zone of smart mobile devices.

Why expensive mobile makes sense

Just a few years ago, smartphones were niche when most users were still adopting standard feature phones that cost $199. In 2017, you would be viewed as a Luddite if you sported a flip phone without an OS.

Thanks to Apple and Samsung the creeping $799 and higher smartphone has gone mainstream.

As mobile technology continues to receive substantial investment, new more powerful processors are created, and 4G LTE becomes ubiquitous, suddenly the smartphone is now the centerpiece for many people's daily computing.

The same momentum is happening in gaming, too, with custom desktop PC makers selling $5,000 rigs with extreme cooling and light mods. Microsoft is pushing console prices higher for its premium 4K Xbox One X, something that gaming media said was not acceptable. There are now $3,000 OLED 4K 65-inch TVs, $250 thermostats, $200 doorbells, $80,000 electric cars, and a $3,000 holographic headset from Microsoft.

Lenovo's foldable screen technology being demoed in July 2017.

While some of this momentum will seem unfair to the financially struggling masses, ultimately the idea of trickle-down works in technology. I just wrote about a $300 laptop that has the same display resolution as the Surface Pro. A PC with nearly five million pixels is something that in 2012 you couldn't even get at the high-end. Now, it's common.

Likewise, tech companies in China and Hong Kong, like OnePlus and Huawei, are proving that premium budget devices are possible, too.

Finally, we can summarize the future trends in mobile and smartphone computing like this:

• Ultra-premium mobile devices that start at $1,000 and higher will enter the market in late 2017, become more mainstream in 2018
• Phablets are just regular phones now, but the continued blurring of smartphones, tablets, and laptops will accelerate
• Apple and Google (via Android) are a part of this paradigm shift with Microsoft already building an ecosystem for it
• Mobile hardware is getting powerful enough to begin challenging Ultrabook-level computing
• Cloud computing and AI (the "edge") will begin to play a more substantial role so that mobile devices can offload processing to hosted solutions

Years ago, when banter about a "Surface phone" began making the rounds the biggest hurdles to such device were the anemic hardware available and the assumed extravagant pricing (compared to smartphones). Interestingly, the market itself is now shifting creating a landscape much more conducive and beneficial to these new concepts. It's not just Microsoft either as Apple and manufacturers of Android devices are adjusting appropriately too.

Ultra-premium mobile is coming, so get ready

It may be a good thing that Microsoft is not first to market. Coming out of nowhere with a pocketable device that costs beyond $1,000 would be a tough sell, no matter how good it was.

With Apple, Samsung, and even RED setting the stage for ultra-premium hardware, however, Microsoft will have a softer landing whenever it decides to try and woo customers back. Even then, Redmond's struggle will be significant (maybe even insurmountable), but at least sticker shock at the price won't be a top critique. By then, the market will already be used to such premium releases. Consumers will be softened to accept that people will buy a $1,200 "phone" even if they cannot afford it.

Instead of commentary lamenting the price of Microsoft's new mobile ambitions, you will see articles comparing it to whatever Samsung, Apple, and even RED is offering. That's a more attractive narrative.

Whether you choose to buy whatever Microsoft comes out with, or you opt for Apple, RED, or Samsung, we're about to enter a new area for mobile technology where laptops, phablets, and smartphones finally merge, and that's exciting no matter which company you want to win.

But you better start saving your pennies.

With just over 20 percent of the less than one percent market share Window phone has of the smartphone space, Windows 10 Mobile's uninspiring presence likely represents Microsoft's strategic exit from smartphones in preparation for its introduction of a new mobile device category.

Windows Phone 8.1, for which Microsoft recently ended support, comprises the bulk of Microsoft's meager smartphone share. That leaves Windows 10 Mobile as the only supported representative of Microsoft's Windows-on-mobile vision, presumably until the debut of some form of ultramobile PC with telephony, possibly powered by CShell.

The most ardent Windows 10 Mobile fans left have enrolled in Microsoft's Insider's Program to gain early access to new OS builds. For many who find Microsoft's silence regarding Windows 10 Mobile's future and its broader mobile vision troubling, the Insider Program serves as a legitimate, and relatively consistent means to gain the slightest hints of Microsoft's direction in mobile.

With Microsoft's withdrawal of Lumia smartphones from the market, no marketing of Windows 10 Mobile in support of OEM partners HP and Alcatel, Microsoft's doing the bare minimum to maintain Windows 10 Mobile before possibly pulling the plug.

Microsoft, are you using us?

So why would Microsoft keep Windows 10 Mobile alive by releasing new OS builds? And why have an official contact person and spokeswoman for the platform's progress, in the person of Insider Chief Dona Sarkar?

Well, access to a "person at Microsoft in-the-know" excites users and inspires feelings of involvement in the future success of the platform. Simply put, it keeps users engaged with the platform, and their usage and feedback are beneficial to the development process. This is what Microsoft wants.

It's common practice for companies to engage in internal testing (dogfooding) or limited beta testing with a small group of users to glean information and to improve products before release. Rarely, if ever, does beta testing occur for over a year with millions of testers for a product that technically has a "pseudo market presence."

That's essentially what's happening with Windows phone fans using Windows 10 Mobile who are part of Microsoft's Insider's Program. With no real market presence, Windows 10 Mobile has virtually devolved into a mere beta test for Windows 10 on ARM, cellular and other features for future implementation in Windows 10 on ARM devices, and fans are the beta testers.

Transition from smartphones to cellular PCs to ultramobile PCs

Cellular PCs running full Windows on ARM, which should begin hitting the mass market this fall, may be the first step toward telephony-enabled ultramobile PCs.

Microsoft will use the concept of always-connected cellular PCs, where users will purchase data from the Windows Store, to help create mindshare for the new type of always-connected telephony-enabled ultramobile PCs that may follow.

Windows Chief Terry Myerson stated Microsoft's continued investments in mobile are because of the effects of ARM and cellular connectivity on the future technical landscape:

What Microsoft is currently gleaning about those technologies as it keeps Windows 10 Mobile "breathing," and fans involved with the platform are likely the final stages of research and development as Microsoft prepares a move to Windows 10 for ARM-based, telephony-enabled ultramobile PCs. This PC-oriented strategy is consistent with Corporate VP of the Operating Systems Group Joe Belfiore's recent statement that Windows on ARM is for PCs.

Thank you for your service

Soon Microsoft may no longer need the Windows phone fans that have been dogfooding platform features that are likely bound for a future category of Microsoft-inspired ultra mobile PCs with telephony.

If Windows 10 Mobile has devolved into a testing platform and Windows phone fans are the "beta testers," and we are indeed on the precipice of a shift to Windows on ARM on ultramobile PCs with telephony, that beta test may soon be over.

Now Read

Hey Windows phone fans - Microsoft doesn't need you for Surface phone to succeed

What is Microsoft's intelligent edge and how does it affect mobile?

Microsoft's Surface 'phone' should include AR glasses, a pen and exclusive apps

How Microsoft can ensure Surface phone success

The Surface Phone is the expected next step for Microsoft's Surface line, and while we have only the tiniest morsels of information thus far, it can be fun to speculate.

We expect any new "Surface" mobile device to be powered by CShell, which, in basic terms, will allow Microsoft to adapt Windows 10 itself to smaller displays. There is also a slew of foldable phone patents, which fits Surface's modus operandi of category creation. Indeed, for Microsoft to re-enter the phone market after the battering it took over the failure of both Windows Phone and Windows 10 Mobile, Redmond would really, really need to do something special.

Perhaps a folding "phone that can replace your tablet" might be just what the doctor ordered, but Lenovo's Android-powered convertible might just beat them to the punch.

Lenovo's "Folio" concept phone has made the rounds before, but this new video posted recently on reddit gives us a better look at how it converts easily from a tablet, into a phone-like device, complete with photography and an adaptable user interface. Presumably, the "Surface Phone" will follow similar design principles, if Microsoft's folding phone patents are any indication.

Microsoft has retrenched hard in the smartphone war, conceding the market to Android and iOS. Most of Microsoft's public mobile efforts now focus on bringing their services to those aforementioned established mobile platforms, with an emphasis on Android owing to its customizable nature.

If Microsoft does eventually re-enter the phone race, the company will likely try and position any prospective Surface Phone as a pocket PC with cellular, rather than attempt to take Android and iOS head-on. Microsoft has done an incredible job of alienating UWP developers who were invested in Windows 10 Mobile, so it'll be interesting to see how Redmond hopes to muster confidence in their commitment once again, if indeed it is their intention to bring another mobile device to market.

We'll have to wait and see how this plays out, but for now, what do you think of the Lenovo folding concept phone? Is that something you could see yourself using with Windows 10? Hit the comments.

Despite the benefits our years of commitment have brought Microsoft's Window phone efforts, we may not be important to the success of the next step in its Windows-on-mobile strategy.

Consequently, those fans who feel abandoned due to Microsoft's lack of communication, minimal support and apparent lack of passion for Windows 10 Mobile are likely acceptable collateral damage from Redmond's perspective.

Microsoft's ultimate mobile device strategy is, in my estimation, about inspiring a new category of ultramobile PCs with telephony. I believe Microsoft sees that potential market, in the long-term, as much bigger than and far different from a handful of passionate smartphone fans.

Still, Windows phone fans have invested time, energy, money and passion into Microsoft's shifting Windows-on-mobile vision. Besides supporting its decisions, we've offered Microsoft candid constructive criticism, held leadership accountable to their commitments or lack thereof, and even expressed our ideas on how Microsoft's mobile vision could potentially succeed.

Loyalist's investments are not one sided either. Microsoft includes fans in the OS's development via the Insider Program. Early access to new builds and open dialogue with Insider Lead Dona Sarkar have empowered fans. The reciprocal sense of involvement has given loyalists a feeling of real investment in the present and future state of Microsoft's Windows-on-mobile vision. The candid truth, however, is that Microsoft may not need our help to ensure whatever's coming next succeeds.

Windows phone fans have been all-in

Fans have prided themselves on how they've contributed to keeping Windows phone alive beneath the shadow of the iPhone and the army of Android phones that dominate the market.

So, of course, we're important, if not vital, to Microsoft's mobile vision, right? We're essentially partners with Microsoft in its Windows-on-mobile journey. Well, that at least seems to be the sentiment of some Windows phone loyalists.

Microsoft has benefitted from our promoting the platform, passionately dogfooding (and enduring) buggy OS builds and purchasing unpopular yet expensive smartphones. Certainly just as the past and present state of the platform has "needed" us, the future success of Microsoft's mobile vision must be equally dependent on our support, right?

That's a reasonable deduction, but it's not necessarily true. What many call a Surface phone, and CEO Satya Nadella calls an ultimate mobile device, can likely succeed without us.

https://twitter.com/erisdanmacielbr/status/820053136530440192

Given the increasingly toxic environment that is the Windows phone community and the diminishing goodwill fans have toward Microsoft, Redmond has likely deemed little meaningful support would come from the minuscule community of fans. Its long-term strategy probably doesn't include its shrinking crop of smartphone loyalists as factors in the success of its PC-oriented ultimate mobile device strategy.

The sad and humbling truth for both Microsoft and fans is that if this is the company's view Microsoft has contributed to turning fans away from the platform. Also, Microsoft is probably right; we're likely not needed to help an ultimate mobile device succeed.

It's not over

Microsoft's apparent strangling of Windows phone is likely a strategy to remove its smartphone efforts from the market in preparation for its ultimate mobile device strategy. This process is causing a lot of angst for Windows phone fans, however. The community is becoming increasingly angry and impatient as it awaits a definitive word about Windows 10 Mobile, which isn't likely going to come before the next phase in Microsoft's mobile plan is ready to launch.

It's important to note that Microsoft is not just moving old smartphones out to move another smartphone in. I believe as a new category of mobile device, Microsoft does (or should) have an accompanying strategy tailored to introducing, positioning, marketing and encouraging PC manufacturing partners to "copy," as they have the Surface, its ultramobile Surface PC. Part of that strategy, in my estimation, requires the current phase of radio silence so as not to tip its hand.

My analysis is that Microsoft's next take on mobile will be with a Continuum-powered Windows on ARM ultramobile PC with telephony and CShell. This, I believe, will be Nadella's ultimate mobile device and will not be a smartphone, nor will it be marketed as one. It will be a pocketable PC, positioned in the market as a PC that will be capable of making phone calls.

This analysis is consistent with Vice President of Operations Group Joe Belfiore's recent statements that Windows on ARM is not for phones, but for PCs. From Belfiore:

Windows on ARM and an ultimate mobile device

What I am and have been proposing would not be a phone, but would, via CShell, have a user-friendly context-conforming UI that adapts to desktop mode via Continuum and a touch-and-pen friendly UI when in hand.

Also, Belfiore's reference to Windows 10 Mobile as the current OS for phone-like experiences, was just that, a reference to its current OS for phone-like experiences.

I believe the ultramobile PC will have telephony as one of its many PC capabilities, but it will not be its leading attribute. The anticipated form factor is expected to be unique. The design and positioning may also be meant to conform to the reality that telephony ranks after traditional PC activities like web surfing, messaging, social media and other activities users engage in on their smartphones.

Since smartphones are increasingly used more like PCs, developing a pocketable PC with a touch-friendly UI that becomes a desktop via Continuum and for which telephony is but another "app" function is a reasonable strategy. Many fans are looking forward to such a device that challenges the concept of what a mobile device can be.

Out with the old, in with the new: telephony-enabled PCs

Microsoft faces the challenge of using its position as the creator of category-defining Surface PC hardware to educate the masses about this new type of telephony-enabled PC. The idea of a device that can make phone calls while not being a phone is a difficult concept for many to grasp, however.

Perhaps the precedence of millions of people using Skype on laptops, 2-in-1s, Surface Hubs or tablet PCs to place voice or video calls over the internet can be used to provide helpful context and to stretch naysayers' imaginations. And for those who diminish the role of imagination in the practical application of technology, all of the technology you love began as reality-challenging ideas in someone's imagination.

After a shift to Windows on ARM, Microsoft's long-term goal is likely to target a much broader market than the relatively few dedicated Windows phone fans who remain. As a PC, and with the critical and strategic support of PC manufacturing partners, in time the ultramobile PC category's target market will likely extend beyond select markets to encompass hundreds of millions of PC users. This is a multi-phased and long-term effort that requires strategic marketing. Support from PC manufacturers is also critical to bringing this device category to the masses.

Though over time, the telephony aspects of this device category will allow these ultramobile PCs to begin to overlap the smartphone space, it is not expected nor is it my analysis that they will drive iPhone and Android users to immediately replace their phones with these devices.

Your services are no longer required

Naturally, developer support remains a key factor in the efficacy of ultramobile PCs, particularly when in hand and not in use as a desktop. Thus, Microsoft has a lot of work to do to create a unique experience and to win developers in order to position an ultimate mobile device for success. Though some fans may feel their past support suggests that they're also needed for Microsoft's future success, they may be mistaken.

Candidly speaking, of the world's billions of smartphone users, Windows phone users make up less than one percent of the market. Of that one percent, just over 20 percent are Windows 10 Mobile users. That negligible number of Windows-based smartphone fans, from Microsoft's perspective, likely has little strategic value for helping to promote the concept of a new brand of Windows PC with telephony.

So, Windows phone fans, Microsoft's ultimate mobile device, if it succeeds, can likely succeed without us.

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The question: "is Microsoft strangling Windows phone to prepare for the concept of a Surface phone?" That's an inherently very different question. I understand the well-rehearsed idea that Microsoft is killing Windows phone. The company's dismal performance in mobile, it's apparent apathy to marketing a first-party smartphone and it's painful silence on the matter could all be legitimately interpreted as conclusive evidence that Microsoft is indeed killing its mobile strategy.

For many Microsoft watchers, the company's collective failures in mobile from Pocket PC, Windows Mobile, Windows Phone and culminating with Windows 10 Mobile, are evidence that Microsoft has finally given up on the idea of Windows-on-mobile. I disagree.

I do, however, believe that to ensure the survival of Windows-on-mobile Microsoft has made difficult decisions that are painful for Windows-based phone loyalists, both inside and outside of Redmond, to endure. It seems Microsoft has deemed that the survival of Windows-on-mobile requires the pruning of the withering branches that are Windows phones.

The Windows-on-mobile vision lives on

To ensure the health of a tree, diseased branches are removed to prevent the disease from spreading to the rest of the tree. This pruning ultimately strengthens the roots, and if it's a fruit-bearing tree, it encourages the eventual production of fruit.

Contrary to exaggerated claims, the current state of Windows phone isn't that of a dead platform. I understand some who make the "claim" intentionally use hyperbole to express its dire condition. Windows Phone 8.1's no longer supported and Windows 10 Mobile's on just 20 percent of devices. Still, Microsoft provides limited support via OS updates. Sporadic developer support, real but insufficient OEM support from the likes of HP and Alcatel, and a passionate though diminishing fan base are also present. Together these variables suggest Windows phone is still alive, but like a branch in need of pruning, it is diseased.

Due to rejection by consumers, insufficient developer support, inconsistent commitment from Microsoft and an inescapable negative reputation, Windows phone is likely unsalvageable. Microsoft knows this. To be clear; I'm referring to a smartphone running Windows 10 Mobile, nothing more.

The idea of Windows on a smartphone is perceived by most as a "diseased concept" that I believe would be rejected no matter how Microsoft might present it. The iPhone and Android phones have defined what a smartphone is and sadly, due to external forces and missteps by Microsoft, a smartphone running any version of Windows does not fit that definition.

Still, though every smartphone is a mobile device, every mobile device is not a smartphone. It is upon this truth that I believe Microsoft is resting its mobile strategy. But to move forward with its Windows-on-mobile vision, it must first remove the diseased Windows smartphones from the market and the idea of Windows on a smartphone from public consciousness.

Smartphone woes

Microsoft's vision of bringing the power of Windows to a pocketable device is decades-old. Long before iPhone or Android phones, Microsoft's mobile OS was a player in the enterprise smartphone space.

To Microsoft's dismay, the historically ignored consumer demographic passionately embraced Apple's offering and Android smartphones that followed. Microsoft's response after its iPhone-inspired awakening from years of lethargy was wracked with desperation.

Microsoft's Live Tile-based, touch-friendly Windows Phone 7 UI was a new and unique manifestation but still a continuation of its Windows-on-mobile vision. Windows Phone 8 and Windows 10 Mobile followed with many improvements and sacrifices. But as was the case with other smartphone iterations of Microsoft's Windows-on-mobile vision, they all ended in failure.

Every mobile device is not a smartphone

Microsoft is currently in a quandary with respect to bringing the next iteration of its mobile vision to market. I believe the company is planning a Continuum-enabled Windows on ARM ultramobile PC with the context-conforming CShell and telephony. This will be a mobile device, but it will not be a smartphone.

For it to be accepted by the market, any remnants of Microsoft's failed smartphone attempts must be eradicated from consumer's minds to whatever extent possible.

Additionally, I believe Microsoft has deemed physical reminders of that failed platform must be purged as well. Thus its full retreat from the market and little effort to solicit OEM support. This strangling of Windows phone while supporting its Widows-on-mobile vision puts Microsoft in a multi-faceted quandary.

Problems with pruning

Though the idea of Windows phone is quickly fading from consumer's collective consciousness, which Microsoft wants, it is also fading from developer's collective consciousness, which Microsoft doesn't want.

Due to low market share and other factors, developers never supported Windows phone in any meaningful way. Now, they're not only ignoring Windows phone as they've historically done but are accepting iOS and Android as the only platforms that matter. Still, Microsoft needs developer support for Windows 10 now and its Windows on ARM ultimate mobile device later.

Microsoft's public dance of dropping carefully curated assurances of a commitment to mobile in reference to a potential Surface 'phone' (ultimate mobile device) while intentionally choking Windows phone by withdrawing all but the most basic support sends a confusing message.

Like many bloggers, consumers and Microsoft watchers, developers mistakenly see Microsoft's lack of passionate support for the current iteration of Windows phone as Microsoft's abandonment of its Windows-on-mobile vision. Consequently, many are abandoning support for Windows and not looking back which is disastrous for Microsoft's mobile future regardless of what non-smartphone device it launches.

We're part of the problem

The other part of Microsoft's pruning process problem is you, and when I say you, I mean us. Passionate Windows phone fans who don't want Windows phone to die.

Now, this is where language becomes important, and a bit confusing. When most people say Windows phone is dead they mean the totality of Microsoft's mobile strategy or Windows-on-mobile (sometimes less accurately called Windows on 'phone' when referencing a future non-phone device).

They're not looking beyond the current iteration of Windows-on-mobile and are seeing Windows 10 Mobile as the totality of Microsoft's mobile strategy. This is wrong. Just as Pocket PC, Windows Mobile, and Windows Phone "died" but Windows-on-mobile lived on as subsequent iterations of the mobile OS, Windows 10 Mobile will likely do the same and be succeeded by Windows 10 on ARM with CShell.

As fans, however, we love, use, talk about and refuse to give up our Windows phones. Some of us still actively try to convert others (I gave that up over a year ago). Naturally, this passionate support and evangelizing of Windows phones work to counter Microsoft's process of pruning actual phones and the idea of Windows phones from the market and our collective consciousness. Microsoft doesn't want consumers thinking about the fiasco that has been Windows on smartphones when it introduces its ultimate (Windows) mobile device.

A new way of thinking

Microsoft's hardware goals are to introduce new categories of devices that help consumers work more efficiently and which conform to a user's context.

Microsoft's still unrealized mobile vision has been clearly communicated over the years. The company wants to offer a pocketable device that can make calls, be a PC via Continuum and as a result of OneCore benefit from the breadth of features available to Windows 10. Pen support via system-wide inking, mixed reality and more are examples of features this ultimate mobile device, that can potentially be all devices, may bring to the table.

Microsoft faces the challenge of proudly communicating that the range of benefits that this device will bring to the masses are features of Windows 10, while conveying that the device itself is not a phone. It's clear from previous reader's comments that that distinction will be difficult to communicate.

I'm certain that hardware design will be critical to helping to make the visual distinction as clear as possible. Unique and new ways of interaction may be another. Intentional market positioning in the PC space as an ultramobile PC and subsequent marketing as such may further distinguish this device from smartphones.

However Microsoft brings its ultimate mobile device to the table, it will do so in the wake of strangling the life out of Windows phones right before our watchful eyes. It's not pretty, but if the next phase of Windows-on-mobile is to have any chance at acceptance the world needs to forget about Windows on smartphones in order for the concept of an ultimate mobile device to take root.

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Pre-2007 Microsoft was content targeting businesses with cumbersome, stylus-dependent smartphones sporting physical keyboards. Those precursors to modern smartphones could play music, surf the web, take pictures and run apps.

Apple didn't invent the "MP3 player-internet device-phone" combination former Apple CEO Steve Jobs introduced in 2007.

The iPhone was simply a refinement of a preexisting model. The removal of the keyboard, the introduction of the App Store and most importantly targeting consumers put Apple and the iPhone at the forefront of a mobile revolution. Microsoft has been scrambling for mobile relevance ever since. With Apple's move into AR history may repeat itself.

Here we go again

In 2015 Microsoft introduced HoloLens and Windows Holographic (now called Windows Mixed Reality). Microsoft's untethered wearable Windows 10 computer projects holograms onto the real world in a wearer's field of view. It also provides spatial sound. With gaze, gesture and speech interaction HoloLens is the most advanced AR solution in the industry.

Windows Mixed Reality APIs are also part of Windows 10, which makes it a growing AR platform 500 million devices strong.

As it did with smartphones, Microsoft has focused its AR efforts on the enterprise and specific industries. Consumers have not been part of the equation.

Now, as in 2007, Apple has introduced a consumer-focused AR solution with ARKit for iOS 11. With hundreds of millions of iPhones and iPads as its medium, Apple's AR solution may be adopted, popularized and mainstreamed among consumers faster than the iPhone was. Microsoft may find itself scrambling for relevance yet again.

Microsoft can't sit idly by while its HoloLens and Windows Mixed Reality AR investments are buried beneath the coming deluge of media coverage, apps and business uses of Apple's AR move. Microsoft needs to go all-in with both a mobile and AR solution that addresses the consumer space.

It will be a gamble, but doing nothing is certain defeat. Microsoft should launch a Surface phone with a pen and AR glasses in 2018. There I said it.

Microsoft, all in is the only option

Microsoft's careful advance into AR, building partnerships, developer support and practical applications in various industries was a smart move. Having NASA, the US military, Legendary Entertainment, the education sector, car dealerships, health care and more as HoloLens and AR partners is great for Microsoft and its platform. It's just not enough.

The mainstreaming of personal computing has shifted the balance of influence. Increasingly consumers, not the enterprise, are dictating what technologies are adopted and ultimately succeed. Microsoft's absence from the AR consumer space makes it irrelevant to consumers and consequently irrelevant to developers. Get it? Even with Microsoft's presence in niche markets, with enough consumer and developer critical mass Apple's AR solution may make HoloLens and Windows Mixed Reality AR as irrelevant as the iPhone made Windows phone.

Microsoft should continue investing in niche markets but must add an aggressive consumer component. A massive awareness-building television campaign would show consumers and the enterprise what it's doing with AR and HoloLens. Telling its AR story could generate interest, mindshare, and demand for its AR solution. In consumers eyes, Microsoft's more sophisticated and mature solution would make Apple's look elementary by comparison. Microsoft needs to establish that edge, and they can easily afford to set these wheels in motion.

Microsoft could begin this campaign this year before Apple's AR apps hit the market and continue into 2018. This campaign would be the prelude to Microsoft's 2018 AR glasses and ultimate mobile device.

Microsoft's ultimate mobile device augmented with AR

Microsoft must put the weight of the entire company behind Surface phone. As a device that I presume will benefit from a synergy of technologies such as inking, AI, gaming, CShell, Continuum, mixed reality and more, inter-department collaboration is a must.

The strategy and marketing teams are also essential to positioning and marketing this ultramobile Surface. This "ultimate mobile device" must appeal to all market segments: consumers, the enterprise, and gamers. Microsoft must go all in.

If it launches, the Surface phone is expected in 2018. The next version of HoloLens is planned for 2019. I believe the ultramobile Surface should launch with both pen support and AR glasses in 2018 to further differentiate and to bring an AR product to market.

I don't mean a HoloLens headset with all the bells and whistles. I'm suggesting paired down, device-dependent AR glasses, based on HoloLens tech that will provide users with a basic but useful AR experience.

Just as the Surface Pen works synergistically with the Surface, these AR glasses can do the same with the Windows 10 ultramobile Surface PC. I imagine glasses that connect wirelessly (or wired when sitting) to an ultramobile Surface or any Windows 10 PC for that matter. They would be capable of displaying 3D images, alerts, and apps in the user's field of view and would have limited sensors for detecting motion and one's surroundings.

Microsoft can make the apps for that

As the world's leading software developer Microsoft can support its ecosystem by creating a broad suite of exclusive Universal Windows Platform (UWP) and AR-specific productivity, utility, gaming and entertainment apps. These high-quality apps can bear the Surface branding, like the Lumia apps of the past, and would be software equivalents of the esteemed Surface hardware.

Microsoft should begin developing, releasing and marketing these apps now. This level of commitment as a developer of exclusive apps for its own platform would convey to developers and consumers that Microsoft is serious about Windows, mobile and AR.

If the AR apps combined with the ultramobile Surface and AR "Surface" glasses is a compelling experience, consumers may be drawn to Windows, just as gamers are drawn to consoles because of exclusive games.

Microsoft's productivity legacy, Xbox and Windows gaming platforms, and Microsoft Garage are resources that can be drawn on to develop a broad range of engaging UWP and AR-specific apps. Real-time translation, facial-recognition, weather, and mapping are just some AR apps Microsoft could launch as seen here:

Microsoft's full commitment to creating a host of AR games, utility, and entertainment apps would make its AR solution practical, appealing and inspiring to developers.

Get it to market then iterate

AR glasses connected to an ultramobile Surface will be wrought with engineering challenges. Power consumption, modes of interaction, display quality, cost and more are valid considerations.

Still two years ago Microsoft introduced HoloLens, the first fully untethered wearable holographic computer. The company has since learned more about the technology and its applications and have skipped version two to jump to an even more advanced version three.

Microsoft has likely gleaned enough knowledge from HoloLens to enable it to build a far less sophisticated set of AR glasses that require connection to a separate device but can provide useful and engaging AR experiences. I understand Microsoft likely wants to wait until it can blow everyone's minds with a full consumer version of HoloLens, but the market won't give Microsoft that chance. Apple is on the move.

This ARKit-created virtual measuring tape for iPhone is the type of app that would be more practical viewed hands-free via AR glasses:

Apple's 16 million developers and hundreds of millions of iOS users are poised to mainstream AR in Apple's image with little to no resistance from Redmond. This can't be what Microsoft want's after its pioneering AR investments.

Just do it

Microsoft, give us a Continuum-enabled ultimate mobile device with CShell that has the support of the entire company, showcases a synergy of technologies and appeals to consumers, gamers, and the enterprise. Include a pen and AR glasses to highlight Windows 10 innovations in inking and AR.

Support UWP and Windows Mixed Reality with high-quality first-party apps. Most of all, do what Apple did with iPhone and what it's doing with AR: get the ultramobile Surface and AR glasses to market, then iterate.

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Still, the absence of the most personal of computing devices from Microsoft's lineup is detrimental to its present and future relevance. Microsoft must launch a Surface phone.

The personal computing landscape is permeated with technologies that became relevant to consumers by way of smartphones. Digital assistants, the cloud, smart home speakers, in-car computing, IoT and mobile gaming are an increasingly cohesive personal computing tapestry spawned by and centralized around smartphones.

Microsoft's retreat from the smartphone space removed the company's rapport to the personal computing landscape and potentially eliminated its future relevance. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella promised an "ultimate mobile device" that will be "beyond the curve" and won't be like "the other guys'" phones, however.

Microsoft's ultimate mobile device

I believe Microsoft's ultimate mobile device will fill the gap left by its absent smartphones, and will potentially create a new device category. The iPhone's and Android phone's mobile dominance and Microsoft's need for "some type of mobile device," makes both these objectives necessary.

Microsoft needs a personal portal to its ecosystem and a compelling device that challenges the "rectangular-slab-smartphone" status quo.

A device with game-changing, context-conforming hardware which benefits from a synergy of technologies from inking, mixed reality, gaming and more may be the answer.

These are lofty goals. This device will require massive engineering resources, profound levels of inter-department collaboration to bring different technologies together and immense marketing and distribution follow-through. This massive investment is also a huge gamble. The risk is accentuated by Microsoft's 100 percent failure rate in mobile.

Not to act, however, is a guarantee that Microsoft, without that personal portal to its ecosystem and nexus point for other technologies, will be irrelevant in the future of personal computing. This can't be overemphasized: Microsoft must launch a Surface phone.

Failure should have taught Microsoft how to succeed

External forces, as well as internal shortcomings, led to Microsoft's mobile failures. Slow responses to the market, inconsistent marketing and distribution, support of iOS and Android at Windows' expense, not-ready-for-prime-time Windows 10 Mobile, and more plagued the platform.

Unless Microsoft is oblivious or simply doesn't care, experience should have taught it how not to fail. The coming ultimate mobile device, an ultramobile Surface PC with CShell and telephony, may succeed.

As a telephony-enabled, pocketable Windows 10 PC with Continuum, it will fill Microsoft's smartphone gap and challenge the "rectangular-slab-smartphone" status quo. Despite the best-laid plans, however, success isn't guaranteed. And Microsoft's fight to position an ultramobile Surface PC in the mobile space will be wrought with challenges.

Positioning matters

Positioning any "Microsoft" mobile device directly against the iPhone and Android phones in the smartphone space would be suicidal. The market has grown cold to Microsoft's phone efforts. Fans are bitter, consumers apathetic, OEMs uncommitted, the enterprise is disinterested, and many bloggers are hostile. Another strictly "phone" attempt would be fodder for more negativity.

Microsoft cannot position a "Surface phone" as a phone. As a telephony-enabled ultramobile PC it must be positioned accordingly. It must be clear to fans, consumers, the enterprise and bloggers that this ultimate mobile device is something new.

It mustn't look like a smartphone, but it must be familiar enough to be recognized as a mobile device. It must provide new ways of interaction but also be intuitive.

It must be positioned in the mobile, not smartphone, space as an ultramobile PC both because that's what it will be as well as to escape the stigma of Microsoft's past phone failures. It must appeal to consumers who are dictating personal computing's direction and be suitable for the enterprise. If Microsoft fails at positioning the ultramobile Surface, it will lose before it even gets "re-started."

Surface phone needs "One Microsoft"

Microsoft's strategy is the coalescing of various technologies synergistically in an ultramobile Surface. This is important to making an ultramobile Surface unique.

Surface lead Panos Panay expressed how the Surface team's working with the OneNote team was important to making the pen and Surface work together seamlessly. A more extensive level of collaboration must take place to bring an even broader range of innovative technologies to the ultramobile Surface.

Microsoft's four engineering groups Cloud and Enterprise Engineering, Office Product, Windows and Devices, and Technology and Research were structured to allow engineering heads to report directly to Nadella. This makes for a more efficient product development and product-to-market system.

This structure should also provide a collaborative environment where teams can work together efficiently and intentionally to bring various technologies to the ultramobile Surface. Panay and his team will need the folks working on mixed reality, Office, inking, AI, gaming, CShell, Continuum, Project Centennial, Cloud and Windows to make Nadella's ultimate mobile device a reality.

Marketing and distribution

Beyond the divisions building the device, other teams must ensure its marketing and distribution.

Microsoft marketing and operations.

The Corporate Strategy and Planning, Global Sales Marketing and Operations, Marketing Group, and Worldwide Commercial Business divisions must position it for success.

These teams and leaders must be held accountable for ensuring Microsoft puts 100 percent of its weight behind building, positioning, marketing and distributing Nadella's ultimate mobile device. If this doesn't happen, Microsoft's mobile efforts may fail again.

Developers, Developer, Dev … Microsoft you're a developer!

As we move toward an AI, bot and progressive web app world, no current mobile ecosystem can thrive without a strong app ecosystem. If Microsoft can't attract developers, its ultimate mobile device will be doomed from the start. Developers need to be convinced Windows is a viable platform.

Microsoft can potentially woo developers and prove its commitment to mobile by launching an exclusive suite of unique, high-quality Universal Windows Platform (UWP) productivity, entertainment, gaming and utility apps. They can fall under a "Surface exclusive" branding reminiscent of "Lumia exclusives" of the past. Microsoft must also keep its promise that cross-platform first-party apps will be best on Windows.

As the world's leading software company with resources spanning Windows, Office, Microsoft Garage apps, AI, Xbox and more, Microsoft itself is its best asset for winning developers. If it puts a 100 percent effort into building exclusive UWP apps and games before Surface phone's launch, it may inspire third-party developers to follow.

If Microsoft continues business as usual, as usual it will fail.

Beating consumer apathy requires ultimate effort

Winning mobile users requires an enormous effort. If it happens, it won't be overnight. Many consumers have a negative view of Windows phone, and after being burned, many no longer trust Microsoft.

Microsoft made a strategic (but painful to users) gamble by "purging" the market of Windows phones in hopes of purging the failed platform from consumers' minds as it prepares for what's next.

Microsoft's ultimate mobile device will be its next attempt at mobile. If it supports mixed reality, Xbox and Windows gaming, becomes a desktop via Continuum, conforms to context via CShell, has a suite of exclusive apps, has first-party apps that are best on Windows and a growing pool of third-party apps, Microsoft may have a shot at winning consumers and the enterprise.

Microsoft's Surface phone must be the ultimate mobile device

Microsoft's ultimate mobile device must be just that: the ultimate mobile device. It must be that single computing device that does virtually everything for virtually anyone. Microsoft can spare no effort and must target broad markets. It must appeal to consumers, the enterprise and gamers.

Microsoft simply must deliver.

Pooling the efforts of multiple engineering, strategy and marketing teams around an ultramobile Surface is a tremendous gamble. If Microsoft fails, resources will be wasted, the press will be unmerciful and the industry-esteemed Surface brand will be marred.

If it succeeds, the rewards will be equally as profound and Microsoft may well change the game.

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I've often contemplated how artists who create large works, like the 60-foot sculptures of Mount Rushmore, maintain perspective. As they work on the details of the piece, they're far too close to (essentially engulfed by) the enormous "canvas" to see how each detail relates to the larger whole. It's a very different perspective than a sketchpad drawing where the entire picture is always in view.

In the case of Mount Rushmore, the artist rigged a flat-panel projector on the heads of each president. A model of the sculpture had a similar rig. Thousands of measurements were taken from the model, multiplied by twelve, taken to the mountain by the sculptor's crew, and facial expressions and carving points and depths were marked off in red paint. Thus, workers could confidently give composite parts of the whole the required attention, knowing their work would ultimately culminate in what was modeled.

Microsoft's "ultimate mobile device," as CEO Satya Nadella calls it, began as a mental model. The work going into building the actual device, like Mount Rushmore, requires a "crew" or different teams within Microsoft to confidently work on composite parts of the whole. It took fourteen years to complete Mount Rushmore. Though I don't anticipate nearly as long for a "Surface phone" to, well, surface, perfecting and bringing all the parts together will take time. Any analysis we present on Microsoft's mobile strategy and Surface phone is, therefore, a long-term view.

A change of perspective

As a fellow Windows phone loyalist (eleven years) I empathize with the disappointed and frustrated fans who are weary of Microsoft's mobile woes.

Like many, I championed Windows phone among family and friends. Most of the approximately fifteen people I converted have since moved on to Android or the iPhone, however. I can't blame them.

Furthermore, I've refrained from actively recommending Windows phone for over a year now and will only recommend it (in its current state) to someone with simple needs and little reliance on apps. Despite this reality, I believe Microsoft has a mobile strategy, the success or failure of which is not the focus here, simply its existence.

I know it's frustrating for news-hungry fans not to get Surface phone or mobile strategy news nicely packed and delivered in a complete package. Given Nadella's assertions that Microsoft's next phones will not be like anything currently on the market, the company is committed to Surface- and HoloLens-like silence until its category-defining device is ready. Consequently, perhaps loyalists would find it empowering to change their perspective on the matter.

Maybe we should stop engaging in the frustrating exercise of eagerly awaiting news that isn't coming (until Microsoft is ready). Perhaps we should step back, gain perspective and patiently observe how the teams at Microsoft are confidently working on parts of the platform and ecosystem that will make the Surface phone into an ultimate mobile device. Like Mount Rushmore, if Nadella's words bear fruit, it will all eventually come together.

Microsoft's mobile strategy in context

Of course, observing disparate pieces alone won't satisfy our desire for mobile news, and we need context.

The Mount Rushmore crew had the image of the model in mind when they were on the mountain surrounded by hundreds of feet and thousands of tons of shapeless granite. As they focused on their individual tasks, their collective work shaped the broader project. Someone observing from a distance could see how the work was coming together even more clearly than the teams themselves because distance gave a big-picture perspective.

The teams at Microsoft have brought new devices to the ecosystem. They're also introducing new capabilities within Windows in the coming Fall Update, and recent Creators Update that enhance Windows across form factors. A model of an ultimate mobile device — a Windows 10 on ARM ultramobile PC with telephony and an inking focus perhaps — should be in our minds as Microsoft builds its ecosystem. Loyalists might find a contemplative observance of Microsoft's investments and the collective contributions of its various teams more helpful toward revealing Microsoft's mobile strategy, than the hopeful desire for news that remains unfulfilled.

Candidly speaking, anyone curious about Microsoft's mobile strategy may be best served by divorcing the notion that Microsoft will divulge comprehensive details of that strategy anytime soon. I know not everyone is inclined to apply a discerning eye to a multitude of details and to what appear to be unrelated variables, and that's OK. But for those of you who are so disposed, read on.

The Lumia 950 that should (not) have been

The smartphones we carry are more than the plastic, glass, and metal that comprise them. The value they impart and the feelings they invoke are founded more on the experiences derived from the platforms that power them and the ecosystems in which they exist. If the OSes were removed and the phones were plucked from their encompassing ecosystems, we'd be left with an attractive but useless slab.

I'm convinced Microsoft is honing Windows and its ecosystem so that the Surface phone, supported by a unique OS and mature ecosystem, will be an ultimate mobile device and not an attractive but "useless" slab. To clarify, uselessness here isn't characterized by an absolute state of inefficacy but by a lack of a meaningful competitive edge in the mobile personal computing space.

To that point, Windows Central recently exclusively reported on Microsoft's original plans for the Lumia 950 series. "Active Sides," a 3D Touch feature, and a Surface Pen-supported inking focus were some of its highlights, as seen in the video below:

This pre-retrenchment early 2015 concept video and accompanying marketing material (pictured below) represents what Microsoft envisions for a personal computing experience on a pocketable device. Ranging from an inking-focused digital notepad to a Continuum-powered PC replacement, as suggested by the marketing tagline "Leave your laptop behind," it shows where the company was and, I believe, is still headed in mobile.

In 2015, Microsoft realized its immature ecosystem and developing platform features like inking, Continuum and others were not ready to make a meaningful impact (like the canceled Surface Mini and MacLaren). Thus, features were cut from the 950 family. What we see now is Microsoft maturing its ecosystem and Windows 10 features to help bring that delayed mobile vision to fruition.

What to watch

Watching the big picture helps you see Microsoft's mobile strategy come together:

• Inking — Windows Ink makes inking a far more integral and expansive part of Windows than was available in 2015 and better reflects its role in Microsoft's mobile and collaboration vision.

• Cloud, AI and Whiteboard — Microsoft's intelligent cloud supports user experiences across Windows (and other) devices. The real-time collaboration Whiteboard tool would be a powerful application on an ultramobile Surface.

• Continuum — Nadella stresses this platform feature (not device feature like the Galaxy S8 and DeX Dock) as a Windows phone differentiator. Microsoft is making the experience more PC-like.

• Univeral Windows Platform (UWP) — Window 10 S is part of Microsoft's strategy to bring Win32 apps (and other apps) to UWP.

• Project Centennial — As a bridge to UWP, it begins the process of modernizing Win32 apps. It's important for Continuum on an ultimate mobile device and to Microsoft's ecosystem. Microsoft's Principal Program Manager Lead Stefan Wick's conversation with Windows Central and Build presentation shed light on the process.

• Hardware — Surface reveals Microsoft's commitment to category-defining, context-sensitive hardware as is expected of a ultramobile Surface.

• CShell — This allows the UI of a Windows device to conform to the user's context.
• Mixed Reality — This may be personal computing's future. HoloLens Creator Alex Kipman sees it as the future of mobility.

• Gaming — Mixer (formerly Beam) and game streaming are areas Microsoft may optimize for full Windows on mobile.

• Cellular, mobile strategy and telephony — Cellular PCs, led by 2-in-1s, laptops and tablets this year, are likely Microsoft's first steps in bringing full Windows to a telephony-enabled device.

Wrapping up

Microsoft is unlikely to directly divulge Windows phone news in the near future. We can, however, change our perspective by stepping back and looking at the big picture. I've identified some elements that would go into Nadella's promised ultimate mobile device.

What other areas should those curious about Microsoft's mobile strategy include in their views of the big picture, as the company's ultimate mobile device comes together?

Though I'm a long-time Windows phone user, my confidence doesn't rest on blind hope or sentiment. It is a pragmatic matter.

It's simply logical

Microsoft needs a pocketable mobile device in the market because many computing tasks are mobile. Microsoft's CEO Satya Nadella recently said, "I'm sure we'll make more phones, but they will not look like phones that are there today." The company's cross-platform efforts are noteworthy but don't replace the impact of a first-party device and platform.

Nadella also stated, and I've reiterated, that what he calls an "ultimate mobile device" won't be the typical smartphone. Thus, claims that Microsoft's done with first-party hardware because it's not making traditional smartphones are ill-founded.

Though Microsoft lost the smartphone war, it's in the midst of a multi-year effort to establish the Universal Windows Platform (UWP), which is a multi-pronged effort with ecosystem and device implications. During this transition, the components that I believe will comprise an ultimate mobile device have been under development, and some have been revealed over time. To understand what I believe Microsoft's doing, one must look at its investments as pieces to a puzzle. If Microsoft's vision of a mobile device that can be a PC via Continuum is to succeed, it must be able to perform, to a reasonable degree, the range of tasks of a modern Windows 10 PC.

Microsoft will talk about mobile at Build, just not how you expect

Features like system-wide inking, Win32 as UWP apps (via Project Centennial), Windows on ARM, Continuum, mixed-reality, gaming and more have been steadily introduced as parts of Windows that I believe Microsoft plans will benefit its ultimate mobile device. Consequently, the journey to this device is long, thus Microsoft's assertion that it won't launch until it's ready.

Pieces of the puzzle

Critical thinking about what Microsoft built into Windows 10 and existing Windows 10 devices can help visualize where Surface phone may fit in the Surface family and what Windows 10 features it might showcase.

I expect a Windows-10-on-ARM, pocketable, telephony-enabled ultramobile Surface PC. It'll be positioned alongside the Surface Book, Pro and Laptop as a mobility-focused mini PC. It will use Continuum and Centennial apps in desktop PC mode, and when in hand the UI will conform to touch-friendly mode via CShell. It'll be capable of the range of Windows 10 features, have a strong pen and inking focus and make phone calls.

Some have concluded that the removal of phone APIs from this year's Fall Update suggests a removal of telephony from Microsoft's strategy. That view considers only the immediate timetable. The road to Surface phone is long, but Microsoft seems dedicated to building the ecosystem infrastructure that will optimize it via:

• UWP.
• Continuum.
• Inking.
• Project Centennial.
• Mixed Reality.
• Gaming.
• Cloud.
• Cellular and telephony.

A puzzle is sold with the finished image to act as a guide for the placement of the pieces. Similarly, Microsoft's current devices, combined with the known needs of a mobile device, provides a picture that shows how parts of Microsoft's ecosystem may forge an ultimate mobile device. This won't happen near-term. A long-term perspective is needed as Microsoft matures and integrates the pieces.

Let's take a look at the company's progress.

Is early 2018 to soon for Surface phone?

An evolving vision

In January 2015, I wrote the following after considering the type of mobile device Windows 10 and OneCore might enable:

My two-year-old analysis saw the company abandoning the traditional smartphone market for a device that was more PC than a phone (I didn't predict a foldable design then), telephony-enabled with an inking focus. Nadella's later assertions that Microsoft would build a device that doesn't have the traditional smartphone form and function, the advent of Windows on ARM, and the broader implementation of inking throughout Windows, as revealed at Build 2017, seem to indicate Microsoft's heading in the very direction I predicted.

UWP, cloud and Surface Mini reborn

In August 2015, I wrote Windows phone is the device that can replace your tablet and become your PC and stressed the single device vision Continuum for phone enables.

Surface phone must be much more than a phone

Additionally, my analysis of Microsoft's October 6, 2015, devices event emphasized the importance of the unifying platform which supplemented that argument:

The UWP provides a common development and user experience platform for all device types. A single device that can become many would fit seamlessly in that environment. Furthermore, Microsoft's cloud-based platform which embraces iOS and Android with a Windows PC as a "hub" as demonstrated at Build, fits this scenario and an earlier analysis. Particularly if this device benefits from Nadella's still-pending promise of the best Microsoft experience being on Windows.

I expanded that analysis in November 2015, when I highlighted Devices Chief Panos Panay's commitment to the canceled Surface Mini, which he still takes notes on using his Surface Pen. I deduced elements of the Mini, such as its Pen-focused aspects, may be reborn in the Surface phone. Given Microsoft's investment in providing unique inking experiences in Windows, my analysis may be correct.

Is Microsoft's rumored Surface Phone a re-imagined Surface Mini

Continuum, collaboration and changing the game

In November 2015, I presented an analysis that Microsoft's mobile offensive is about changing the game. To do that the company committed to a strategy that diverged from traditional smartphone rules. This strategy had precedence in the company's creation of the 2-in-1 category with the Continuum-enabled Surface "tablet that can replace your laptop." The industry has since embraced context-conforming Windows 2-in-1s.

In December of 2015, I presented an analysis that highlighted the fact that Microsoft's success with 2-in-1s helped introduce consumers to the company's philosophy of one device that conforms to a user's context via Continuum. As part of Microsoft's long-term strategy this category-defining product is helping prepare consumers for an ultramobile Surface.

Additionally, since company culture matters, in January 2016 I conducted interviews with three Microsoft employees who stressed that the fear is gone and there's a greater level of collaboration. A category-defining mobile device that will be a PC with telephony and showcases various aspects of Windows 10 would need the collaboration of various teams who has the courage to take chances.  

Ultramobile PC, Centennial and Windows on ARM

In April of 2016, I argued that iterative advancements of smartphone hardware was a dead end. And Microsoft's ultramobile PC strategy was a solution to the declining PC market and evolution of the smartphone as it positions a PC for the mobile, not smartphone space. For the device to be a PC via Continuum, it needs to run PC apps.

In December of 2016, Microsoft announced that it's bringing full Windows 10 to ARM on cellular laptops, tablet sand 2-in-1 PCs. Not only are modernized Centennial "Win32" apps important to the cellular PC but this progress in Microsoft's strategy brought my analysis of an ARM-based telephony-enabled ultramobile PC into view. With a slow expansion into providing mobile data through the Windows Store, Microsoft may be headed toward less dependence on carriers over time.

Microsoft's Project Centennial app bridge makes sense of Win32 apps on phone

Windows 10 S and mixed reality

Microsoft knows it needs a mobile device in the market and that device cannot be a typical phone. Ensuring the ultimate mobile device can "be" a Windows desktop via Continuum is a necessary key differentiator.

Furthermore, Microsoft's an industry leader in mixed reality, and Windows mixed reality APIs are part of every Windows 10 device. Mixed reality may be a big part of the ultimate mobile device.

The Surface phone won't be a phone. It'll be a telephony-enabled ultramobile PC that showcases the range and power of Windows 10 on a pocketable device. As you see, the range of features are broad, complex and still maturing. We'll get there in time. Meanwhile, keep an eye on what Microsoft's doing with its puzzle pieces, and you'll see how it's all coming together.

Also Read:

How Microsoft can ensure Surface phone success

With Surface phone will Microsoft learn from past marketing mistakes

Why Windows 10 S, Project Centennial are critical to Continuum's success

Why Xamarin is the future of mobile for Microsoft

In a recent interview, he confirmed Microsoft's commitment to mobile on first-party hardware and reiterated Microsoft's vision of a phone that could be a desktop via Continuum:

My ongoing analysis is that Microsoft's anticipated Surface phone will be a telephony-enabled ultramobile PC. Focusing on its strengths, Microsoft is capitalizing on the smartphone's increasing adoption of tasks traditionally relegated to PCs but that also (in the case of iOS and Android) have OSes which cannot fully embrace the dominant Windows desktop environment that consumers and enterprises know.

Those phone-focused OSes and app models, though successful, are reaching their limits. Furthermore, the iterative advancements in these "slabs" is arguably a dead end in Apple's and Google's physical evolution of the smartphone.

Smartphones are dead

These tech giants maintain desktop OSes that have different development platforms and user experiences separate from their mobile OSes. This could be a hindrance to their advancement to the desktop, even in the case of Samsung's Galaxy S8 and DeX dock.

Finally, I anticipate Microsoft's context-sensitive ultimate mobile device will transcend the stagnant decade-old rectangular slab form factor. But to be a real PC it needs to run familiar PC apps, and that's where the Universal Windows Platform (UWP), Project Centennial and Windows S come in.

UWP is foundational to Continuum

Microsoft's UWP strategy is designed to enable app development across all Windows 10 devices and provide a unified user experience.

In the case of a Continuum-enabled ultramobile PC, it also potentially provides a consistent user experience as one device "becomes" many across different personal computing scenarios.

Whether connected via Continuum to a monitor, mouse, and keyboard as a desktop, or held in a user's hand, context-conforming hardware and software with a UI supported by CShell should provide a fluid experience.

Microsoft's ultimate mobile device "will not play by the other guy's smartphone rules," says Nadella. I believe he means it will be a telephony-enabled ultramobile Windows 10 PC with Continuum that Microsoft will position in the mobile, not smartphone, space.

This strategy potentially solves for the impasse Google and Apple have reached where smartphones cannot perform the full range of PC tasks. This will be a PC with full PC and smartphone capabilities and an evolving app ecosystem.

Microsoft's Project Centennial app bridge, which helps bring Win32 apps to UWP, and Windows S are essential to this strategy.

Windows 10 S breathes life into the UWP and paves path for Surface phone

Windows S, which allows only UWP apps and is aimed at the education sector (with hopes of eventual mass adoption), gives developers a reason to use Project Centennial. The hopes for a Continuum-enabled device providing a full and modern PC experience fall apart if developers aren't convinced.

Talking Project Centennial with Microsoft's Stefan Wick

Making Win32 into UWP apps is a process that begins with the Desktop App Convertor and Project Centennial. I explained this four-step process last year.

Microsoft's Project Centennial app bridge makes sense of Win32 apps on phone

To provide greater insight, Stefan Wick, Lead Program Manager for the Windows Developer Platform Team (who also set up the deck for the Centennial Presentation on the first day of Build) was kind enough to answer a few questions.

Jason Ward: Hi Stefan, I'd just like your feedback confirming or correcting [my] understanding that Win32 apps can be made into full UWP apps.

Stefan Wick: Hi Jason, This is exactly the purpose of the Desktop Bridge: provide developers a path to make full UWP apps from their existing Win32/NET investments.

The nice thing about it, is that developers can do so gradually. They start by converting their installer to a Universal Windows app package and get the immediate benefit of modern deployment on Windows 10, through Windows Store or other distribution channels of their choice.

Next, they can now modernize their existing apps with new Win10 APIs and features thanks [to] using UWP. Overtime, they can move all their code to UWP-compliant APIs and become a full UWP.

I've gotten a couple of negative responses challenging what I presented as the purpose of the Convertor and Centennial. Here's one of the comments (edited for length):

The Desktop Bridge is more than just the converter. The converter is the first step. It is correct that it doesn't change the APIs your app is calling, and the converter won't produce a full UWP (app) for you. But it sets you up for the gradual process of modernizing and migration to full UWP (calling only UWP-compliant APIs). In some cases, the full migration can be trivial, for example for Unity games, since all Unity APIs are already supported in UWP.

In other cases where apps have a lot of dependencies on non-compliant APIs, completing the migration is more complex. However, with every update of Windows 10, we are making this process easier for developers as we keep expanding the API surface supported in UWP (both for Win32 and NET APIs).

Right, I did understand that the Converter is the first step and makes the app available in the Store, but the subsequent steps of enhancing (modernizing) and migrating are what make the app a UWP app. So that I understand, in a practical sense the purpose is to bring Win32 apps to full UWP and as of today:

• Some APIs are UWP compliant, and apps that use those can undergo that complete process.
• Some APIs are not yet UWP compliant, and apps that use those APIs cannot yet undergo that complete process.
• If my understanding of No. 2 is correct, how long do you anticipate before UWP will support all APIs?

Regarding No. 2, if your app is calling a non-compliant APIs you can replace them with an equivalent UWP API and still go through the full process. The big example here is HWND-based UI APIs. Those are not supported in UWP, so you have to CoreWindow based UI.

So as of today, the process can be completed for any developer who wants to move his or her app from Win32 to UWP (as Microsoft broadens the base or surface of APIs covered with each update of Windows 10) because non-compliant APIs can be replaced?

Yes. In practice, depending on the app, the full journey can still be a considerable amount of work though. And UWP still has some gaps compared to Win32, where there is no equivalent API yet. With every new update of Windows 10, this will get better and easier though as we expand the API surface. It's a journey. The nice thing about the bridge is that they can start today and their app will be fully functional and shippable in the Store at all times along the way across the bridge, and they can go at their own pace.

There is no plan to support all legacy Win32 APIs in UWP. However, we strive for UWP to enable all relevant app scenarios - with modern, better APIs. Same example: HWND-based UI APIs are not something we will bring forward into UWP.

That's an interesting point. What other APIs will not be supported and what percentage of legacy Win32 APIs does that affect? Also, can you define what you mean by "relevant" app scenarios?

I don't think this can be expressed in percentage. UWP is a new app model; it is not supposed to be a superset of Win32. Win32 was invented in a time you bought software in a box and installed from disks. In today's world, Win32 has a lot of problems in terms of user confidence, privacy, battery life, etc. We don't want to bring those problems into UWP but want to provide the functionality that the user wants - and make sure the user is in control at the same time.

Win32 apps can run code at any point in time at full privileges without the user's intent, drain your battery, read your files, etc. UWP creates a much higher level of user confidence and control. Developers migrating to UWP will have to make changes to their code accordingly, to make their products better for their users.

How do developers find out if their Win32 program is one that will be supported?

Before starting a conversion, we point developers at the preparation guide on MSDN.

One more thing: My view is that Centennial making Win32 apps into UWP apps, (thus) modernizing the desktop experience, is important to Microsoft's vision for Continuum. Without a modern desktop experience, the "phone as desktop" loses its appeal. Any feedback on that?

That's another good aspect, yes.

Regarding Continuum, note that the app will need to do the full conversion in order to do Continuum. Just running the converter won't get you Continuum. This is because it needs to be able to run on the phone device. And then there is Project Rome - different, but somewhat related topic that we'll talk more about at BUILD.

Wrapping up

Microsoft's ultimate mobile device vision is a long-term journey. What Wick reiterated about the multi-step process of bringing Win32 apps to UWP and the current state of unsupported APIs reinforces my assertion.

Is early 2018 to soon for Surface phone?

The fact that Win32 apps must go through the full conversion process to UWP for Continuum to be effective is a critical point. Though Wick stresses it can be done at the developer's own pace, it's a time-consuming process for some apps.

A rumored Surface phone may not motivate developers to convert their Win32 apps to UWP but the launch of Windows 10 S might. Will developers embrace Project Centennial and the full UWP conversion process? If Microsoft's vision of a phone being a desktop is to become a reality, they'll have to.

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To say that being a Windows phone fan is a roller coaster ride of expectations, disappointment and emotions would be an understatement. We've rested our hopes for the platform on things like Windows Phone 8, the Lumia's 950 and 950 XL, and Windows 10 Mobile.

We got excited, but when things actually got worse as more developers left the platform and market share plummeted (predictably given retrenchment), frustration and disappointment returned in earnest. Many fans just couldn't take it anymore.

Is the Windows phone fan community of loyalists imploding?

A steady exodus from the platform to Android and the iPhone has ensued. The "app gap," no new first-party hardware, limited OEM support and silence from Microsoft about its strategy regarding these issues has crushed the faith of many of the faithful.

Still, those fans who remain are hoping Microsoft will let us in on what's next in mobile. Most fans would love the full scoop but would be content with a sliver of legitimate news to ignite a spark of hope. Most analysts are not expecting an outright disclosure from Microsoft about its plans for Windows 10 Mobile, nor am I. It is, however, inevitable that Microsoft will talk about Windows on mobile in some form or another at the Build developer conference later this week. You will just have to listen very closely.

But isn't Windows phone dead?

Windows phone is dead – again. So claims the internet, social media and everyone inclined to join in on this quarterly ritual of echoing the platform's demise. This particular round of articles, tweets and comments have been fueled by Microsoft's disclosure on its most recent investor's call. First-party phones are not producing any revenue. That's what happens when a company stops producing a product in a particular market though.

After the Lumia 650, Microsoft stopped making first-party Windows phones. Consequently, revenue from first-party Windows phones fell and will continue to fall. This isn't news. It is a logical progression of the information we've had for months.

However, Microsoft is still actively developing Windows 10 Mobile. The platform is still available to any OEM that desires to use it as part of its mobile strategy. Admittedly, OEM support is not what Microsoft or its fans hoped it would be when Microsoft announced the retrenchment of first-party smartphones from the market two years ago. But there is some OEM support.

Additionally, it seems that Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has reconfirmed an earlier, but as yet unfulfilled, promise to make Windows phones even if no OEMs do.:

This assertion refutes the erroneous claims that Microsoft is done with mobile on first-party phone hardware. Fans looking for just a sliver of hope about Windows phone's future may have gotten it before Build even kicked off. This is by no means a claim of future success, nor the present health of the platform. It is, however, evidence of Microsoft's resolve to continue with its mobile strategy via the development of its mobile platform on first-party hardware.

Why Microsoft might not talk explicitly about Windows Mobile at Build

What we presume will be Microsoft's continued silence on the specifics of Windows 10 Mobile at Build can be interpreted in two ways. Some see it as an indication that Microsoft has absolutely no idea of what direction it is going with mobile and therefore has nothing to share. The company's fumbles in mobile and the current state of the platform lend some merit to this interpretation.

Conversely, some interpret the company's silence as a reflection of intentional secrecy about what Nadella referred as an "ultimate mobile device." This too has precedence. For instance, the Surface and HoloLens were well-kept secrets until the company was ready to present them. Additionally, the company is still actively developing Windows 10 Mobile with the goal of remaining technologically relevant with ARM and cellular on mobile devices.

Both conclusions can be argued and supported, though I am more inclined toward the latter interpretation. The point here, however, is one upon which advocates of both positions can agree: Microsoft will be relatively quiet about the future of Windows 10 Mobile at Build. Still, Windows on mobile is likely to be on the agenda.

Windows on mobile

Microsoft has consistently asserted that it has not given up on mobile. It's worth pointing out that the mobile and the smartphone spaces are two different things. Something can exist in the mobile space but not be a smartphone. The image below bears this out. There are devices in that mobile segment that are not smartphones.

Tablets, 2-in-1s and laptops all exist in the mobile space, and Windows runs on all of these devices.

Last December, Microsoft announced Windows on ARM, which will make its debut on a range of cellular PCs in the fourth quarter of this year. In my estimation, these cellular PCs will be the harbingers of a cellular-capable ultimate mobile device or ultramobile Surface with telephony.

Windows on ARM brings Microsoft's ultimate mobile device vision into view

Pieces of the whole

There is a continuity of variables that Microsoft is working on that will ultimately contribute to the company's mobile strategy. Windows Chief Terry Myerson asserted that the company's continued focus on Windows 10 Mobile's development for the investments in ARM and cellular it provides.

Those investments will certainly be borne out in part with the cellular PCs coming later this year. Full Windows on always-connected PCs also provides the peripheral benefit of an incentive for users to visit the Windows Store to replenish mobile data.

The providing of mobile data is also part of the infrastructure Microsoft is building into its mobile strategy. By providing the mobile platform, OEM devices (and maybe first-party devices at the company's devices event in China on May 23) that are always connected, and mobile data, Microsoft is constructing a comprehensive mobile platform to facilitate its mobile strategy. Added to this is the company's focus on bringing Win32 apps to the Universal Windows Platform (UWP) via Project Centennial, which modernizes the desktop experience for the current static and mobile personal computing experience.

It is within this context that I deduce that Microsoft will launch an ultramobile Surface with telephony via eSIM. As a PC first running full Windows, Microsoft will be pushing this telephony-enabled device into the mobile space, not the smartphone space. It will benefit from Microsoft's investments in cellular and ARM, the infrastructure of distributing mobile data to users, and with Continuum, facilitate the use of Win32 apps brought to the UWP via Project Centennial.

Any discussion Microsoft has about cellular capabilities in Windows 10, its strategy to provide cellular data to users, Windows 10 functionality on ARM, and the company's strategy regarding Project Centennial (and the other app bridges) bringing Win32 apps to the UWP, are Microsoft's discussing its plans for Windows on mobile.

Windows 10 S, Continuum and Project Centennial

I recently argued that Microsoft's ultimate mobile device goal is to create one device that handles all of our personal computing needs. I proposed that Microsoft would want it to be our desktop when connected to a monitor, mouse and keyboard via Continuum; a laptop when connected to an HP Lap Dock-like peripheral; and a tablet and phone with Cshell, possibly with a folding form a factor.

Window 10 S breathes life into the UWP and paves the path for the Surface phone

For Continuum to provide a real desktop experience, legacy Win32 apps need to come to the UWP. I argued that Windows S, which allows only Store apps, may in time (as OEM Windows S PCs increase in popularity) provide the incentive developers need to bring their Win32 programs to the UWP.

It is a process, and it has varying levels of complexity depending on the app. Windows is still being updated with supported APIs (though I am told substitute APIs can be used), but the goal of Project Centennial is to make Win32 apps full UWP apps. Within the context of Windows S, cellular PCs and Microsoft's mobile strategy, we should expect a big push of Project Centennial at Build.

Only Microsoft knows what it has in store. But unless we are surprised with an unexpected level of candor regarding Microsoft's mobile strategy, I would advise anyone watching for any mobile news to keep a sharp eye out. You should pay close attention to Windows on ARM, cellular capabilities in Windows, Project Centennial, Microsoft's providing of cellular data, and Windows S.

Read these:

If Microsoft doesn't kill at Build 2017 the Surface phone may be dead on arrival

This is what must happen first for Surface phone to succeed

Is early 2018 too soon for a Surface phone?

Why 'Xamarin is the future of Windows Mobile

The UWP is Microsoft's unified, core-based development platform that also provides a cohesive app experience for users across the breadth of Windows-based devices. UWP apps have the benefit of being more secure than traditional programs, in part because they are distributed exclusively through the Windows Store.

Their integration in the Windows 10 platform enables features such as push notifications, Cortana integration, Live Tiles, running background tasks, and accessing other app services.

This synergy of app features and the OS is Microsoft's Windows 10 vision of personal computing across its device family, including the anticipated "ultimate mobile device". Sadly, though Microsoft appealed to developers to update existing Windows apps to the UWP, few have. Furthermore, the Project Centennial (Win32), "Westminister" (Web) and "Islandwood" (iOS) app bridges were supposed to bring apps from other platforms to the UWP. But that didn't happen.

In the two years since Project Centennial's (and its companion bridges) introduction, it received little promotion. Microsoft has provided developers with the tools to do more with their apps but has failed to provide a compelling story as to why they should use them.

Every story needs a setting to propel the plot forward. The newly introduced Windows 10 S, which runs only Store apps, is the "setting" Microsoft's UWP story has always needed. Here's why

Modernizing Win32 apps for the PC

Microsoft's poor advocacy for the app bridges and a prevailing perception that UWP was phone-focused led to a muddying of what Microsoft's purpose of the UWP and Project Centennial has always been.

Part of Microsoft's vision for UWP is modernizing Win32 apps for today's personal computing experience. This experience retains the traditional productivity-focused desktop setting but is also increasingly mobile.

The UWP and the modernization of Win32 apps are part of Microsoft's long-term goal to facilitate a personal computing experience in which users can seamlessly move from a productive desktop experience to a fluid mobile one on a single device.

Surface phone should be more than a phone

Microsoft attempted to initiate (but failed to adequately communicate) this strategy with the necessary first step of bringing Win32 apps to the UWP.

A PC focus has always been the strategy

Last year I presented the following analysis:

Smartphones are dead: Evolve or die, Microsoft's ultramobile PC strategy

At the time I wrote that a year ago, most people were focused on the phone's place in the UWP. My analysis highlighting Microsoft's priority of moving Win32 apps to the UWP to modernize the desktop experience likely seemed misguided. This is especially true since Microsoft's own messaging about its strategy was poorly communicated.

With the introduction of Windows 10 S and the absence of first-party phones, a much clearer message highlighting the accuracy of that analysis is emerging.

Project Centennial is finally a bridge to somewhere

Many developers didn't see the value in using the desktop app convertor and the Centennial app bridge to bring apps to the Window Store. Current PCs ran their traditional apps in their current forms just fine.

Even with Windows on ARM, cellular PCs would run their unaltered apps equally as well, as seen in the video below.

The ambitious vision of Win32 apps on a potential Continuum-enabled Surface "phone" didn't present a compelling story to developers either.

Microsoft's Project Centennial app bridge makes sense of Win32 apps on phone

Developers needed a reason to convert their apps to UWP. Windows 10 S and the Surface Laptop may be that reason. Windows Chief Terry Myerson explained that Windows 10 S is the same Windows users and developers have come to know. The only difference is that it will not run Win32 apps.

Start 'em young

Microsoft strategically positioned Windows 10 S for the education sector. Beginning next fall, young students using affordable Windows 10 S-powered laptops will use various UWP apps to help prepare them for the future. The range of apps that will cater to these students and the tools Microsoft is providing educators demonstrate the traditional power of Windows with a modernized app model. This may be the practical UWP "story" developers needed to hear.

As a segue between post-secondary education and the "real world," Microsoft introduced the Windows 10 S-powered Surface Laptop. Targeted at college students, this $999 Ultrabook is positioned as a MacBook competitor. Like it's lower-end primary and secondary school-focused counterparts, the Surface Laptop is capable of performing all the productivity tasks common to Windows.

The company demonstrated this by converting its popular Office Suite into UWP apps, which will be sold through the Windows Store.

The conversion of the world's most popular productivity suite into a form that works as users expect on an app-focused version of the world's most popular PC OS may help Microsoft communicate its UWP vision. Developers may finally see benefits and maybe even a need to move their Win32 apps to UWP.

Microsoft targets children

By introducing Windows 10 S in the primary and secondary school environments, Microsoft is clearly attempting to familiarize children with the tools that the company hopes they'll use in the real world. The higher-end Surface Laptop is meant to do the same for college students. It is also meant to inspire OEMs to produce higher-end Windows 10 S laptops. Redmond hopes they'll be common in the market as today's primary and secondary students reach college age.

Microsoft is bringing one of the world's most used Win32 apps, Office, to this platform (and as other apps follow in time), so many users may find upgrading to the Pro version for access to Win32 apps (for $49) unnecessary. This would make Windows S more popular, relevant and an increasingly appealing OS option for OEM partners.

As OEMs bring a variety of Windows S devices to market, developers may be compelled to keep their apps relevant on an increasingly relevant platform by modernizing apps via UWP. And Microsoft's long-term strategy of "training" children, education institutions, college students and families on Windows 10 S may succeed.

This part of Microsoft's UWP strategy is critical to the success of the next part.

The future of the PC is Continuum

Microsoft's CEO Satya Nadella said the company is planning an ultimate mobile device. He recently reiterated that Microsoft's next device will not have the traditional phone form and function:

An important point to note within the context of this piece is Nadella's stress on the importance of Continuum's ability to turn a phone into a desktop:

Microsoft's goal with Windows 10 S, UWP and Project Centennial is to modernize the desktop experience. That trek does not end with Windows 10 S laptops, 2-in-1s and tablets. Microsoft's ultimate mobile device is also part of this strategy.

The company's goal is focused on a single device that can serve the full range of personal computing.

'Surface phone' is about personal computing

Personal computing takes many forms. It can be productivity-focused at a desk with a monitor and keyboard, consumption-focused on a couch with a tablet, or on-the-go, triaging emails or editing documents on a smartphone or laptop.

Microsoft wants to create a platform that will help users "do more" with one device. The fallacy some encounter when envisioning this is picturing Microsoft cramming a PC into a smartphone-shaped form factor. Nadella stressed Microsoft's targeting a new "form." With Continuum, which turns the phone into a PC, Microsoft's also targeting a new "function."

With Windows 10 S, Microsoft has a compelling message to get Win32 apps to UWP. In time, an ultimate mobile device will potentially be able to serve the full range of our personal computing needs. Through Continuum, it may be our productivity-focused desktop when connected to a monitor and keyboard, our laptop when connected to an HP Lap Dock-like device, or our phone and tablet possibly with a folding design with Cshell.

How Microsoft can ensure 'Surface phone' success

Whatever the outcome, Windows 10 S may finally be a reason for developers to embrace the UWP and bring their Win32 (and other) apps to the platform.

As I've been stressing, Microsoft is moving a telephony-enabled PC into the mobile space and Project Centennial will likely get a big push at Build 2017.

Read these:

If Microsoft doesn't kill at Build 2017 the Surface phone may be dead on arrival

Is early 2018 too soon for a Surface phone?

Will Microsoft's rumored Surface Phone be a reimagined Surface Mini?

Why 'Xamarin is the future of Windows Mobile

That could be the answer to Microsoft's infamous "app gap" problem. To say that Microsoft has had a hard time convincing developers to develop for Windows phone and the Universal Windows Platform (UWP) would be an understatement.

The Windows Store has always lagged significantly behind the App Store and Google Play. Sadly, even after the introduction of Windows 10 and OneCore (and the anticipated boost they could have provided), the Windows Store still boasts less than half the apps Apple's and Google's platforms offer.

Developers don't love Windows. Can Microsoft mend the relationship?

The app gap trap

Data proves most people spend most of their time with just six core apps, rarely search app stores, and many of the millions of apps in the top app stores are never downloaded. Despite these facts the warehouse of apps model still dominates. As such, developers are compelled to get their apps into the App Store and Google Play, due to the hundreds of millions of mobile users to whom those stores cater.

Sadly, Microsoft has very little smartphone audience to speak of. Thus, even with over 400 million Windows users, primarily on PCs, Microsoft has not been able to make a compelling argument to mobile-motivated developers to develop for the UWP. Moreover, Microsoft's Windows on phone strategy is currently in a state of transition.

An enduring lack of new first-party devices invokes further doubts in developers' minds about the future of Windows on mobile. The past failings and the current state of Windows phone seem to solidify the notion that there are only two distinct platforms in the mobile space worth targeting: iOS and Android.

What Android and iPhone users need to know about Windows phone

Despite the challenges that Microsoft has faced in the smartphone space, I believe its leadership is convinced that it has a strategy for mobile. As a provider of a range of development tools, Microsoft is positioned to elevate Windows to the same priority level as iOS and Android in the minds of developers. With Xamarin, Microsoft can create a single mobile target and "universal" app development platform. (Xamarin is a company founded by CEO Miguel de Icaza and CTO Nat Friedman in 2012, and it gives developers the tools to use C# to share code across various mobile platforms such as Windows, iOS and Android.)

Before it does, however, it must reassure developers that Windows still has a position in mobile.

Still in the mobile game

Given the news of Microsoft's move out of producing phone hardware, the quarterly "Windows phone is dead" articles have made their ritualistic appearances. Despite what you may have read, Microsoft's Windows on phone strategy continues unhindered.

No Windows phone isn't dead and it may never die

First, Microsoft is still developing the platform that runs on mobile hardware. Thus, OEM partners such as HP, Alcatel and any other OEM who wishes to, can continue to use Windows to power mobile hardware. Second, I have persistently argued that the next phase of Microsoft's Windows on mobile vision would not be a phone, but an ultramobile PC with telephony.

Microsoft's Surface phone should be much more than a phone

This category defining, Continuum-powered device will, in my estimation, be running full Windows on ARM with Cshell. Microsoft no longer making "phone" hardware makes perfect sense from this perspective. Third, I've argued that full-Windows, always-connected cellular PCs, which are expected later this year, would serve as a segue from Microsoft's current Windows 10 Mobile phone-focused paradigm to the full Windows 10 on ARM ultramobile PCs I envision.

Cellular PCs are part of Microsoft's mobile strategy to move always-connected and eventually telephony-enabled PCs into the mobile, not smartphone, space. Thus, Windows is still a viable mobile platform for developers to build for despite the erroneous claims that Microsoft is leaving mobile.

At the Build developer conference this year, Microsoft will likely stress the coming OEM-supported category of highly mobile cellular PCs (no mention of the subsequent ultramobile PCs or Surface "phone" is expected) to draw developer attention to the company's current phase of Windows in its mobile play.

Microsoft hooking developers into the company's narrative for the mobility of Windows is key to Microsoft winning developers to its Xamarin-enabled development vision.

What is Xamarin?

Xamarin had been an active partner with Microsoft up to its acquisition by the Redmond company in 2016. Freidman said the following of the acquisition:

The companies' shared visions are to enable developers to use a comprehensive singular development tool to develop apps for multiple platforms. "Write once, publish everywhere" is the central and ambitious vision. Microsoft's Scott Guthrie, executive vice president of the cloud and enterprise group shared Microsoft's perspective of the acquisition:

With Xamarin as an integral part of its app development platform, Microsoft is positioned to provide developers with the tools to target Windows, iOS and Android as a single composite mobile platform. Such a Herculean task will require more than explaining the merits of the tools to developers, however.

Microsoft has to embrace the challenging task of composing a message that changes the way mobile is perceived by mobile-focused developers who see the term as strictly Android and iOS.

Xamarin, one mobile platform to rule them all

Microsoft has positioned itself as a platform company and has a goal to provide users with the tools to "do more." I believe that Microsoft wants to position itself as a dev box to help mobile developers do more than target the disparate mobile platforms that are iOS and Android.

The personal computing landscape is increasingly one where a user's digital experience not only transition from device to device but also moves across ecosystems. For instance, many people have a Windows PC but also use a mix of Microsoft and other apps on iPhones and Android phones.

The personal computing space is not a hodgepodge of disparate segments, as it may seem. With Microsoft's cross-platform development efforts and efforts to integrate Android and iOS into the Windows ecosystem, it is clear that the cloud-supported personal computing space is becoming less about distinct platforms.

Composing the single development platform message

I believe that Microsoft should arrest this message on the development side of the equation.

Currently, when developers think about developing for mobile, Windows is rarely a consideration. If it is considered, it's often as a second tier priority, if an individual's or company's resources will allow.

The app bridges, though well-intentioned, reinforce this thought pattern as they beckon developers to take their first-tier iOS and Android code and convert it to the "second-tier" UWP. In essence, the bridge philosophy does nothing to raise Windows to a first-tier consideration in the minds of developers. It supports the continued thinking of three distinct mobile platforms, of which iOS and Android are the targets and Windows is an "if-you-want-to-but-don't-really-have-to" platform.

As all mobile platforms are designed to offer the same fundamental mobile experience, I submit that an ideological eradication of platform distinctions is (or should be) Microsoft's goal. In other words, Microsoft needs to change how developers think of mobile.

To raise Windows to a first-tier target the company needs to encourage developers to see mobile as a single target that is a Windows-iOS-Android composite rather than three distinct platforms. With Xamarin, Microsoft has the tools to do just that:

Positioning the 'universal' app development platform

As an industry-wide provider of development tools, Microsoft could promote Xamarin to the millions of developers who are currently writing apps for iOS and Android, as well as Windows. Ideally, Microsoft will have put in the investments to make Xamarin a powerful, desirable, efficient and accessible development tool to encourage developers to use this single tool for cross-platform development.

If successfully positioned both technically and ideologically, Microsoft could encourage iOS and Android developers to use Xamarin to continue with their mobile development objectives while "seamlessly" incorporating Windows into that vision.

If this is Microsoft's strategy, the company likely hopes that developers who are inclined to use Windows as a development platform will be enticed to target Windows as an app platform. Though changing minds is an ambitious goal, this strategy has the potential to alter the perception that iOS and Android are synonymous with mobile.

If Microsoft is successful, "mobile" will be seen as a single Windows-iOS-Android platform, and Microsoft with Xamarin will be regarded as the industry's development platform for that newly defined mobile target.

Build 2017 is around the corner. Along with a push of project Centennial to bring Win32 apps to cellular PCs and eventually an ultramobile PC, I expect a strong push toward Xamarin this year.

What are your thoughts on a potential positioning of Xamarin as a universal app development platform?

Shared by Evan Blass on Twitter, this Surface Phone concept leverages Microsoft's renowned industrial design with a holographic twist.

Produced by Casmir Valeri, this concept offers a glimpse at the possibilities.

Valeri's Surface Phone concept sports all the expected features. Inking, continuum, with a Surface Book-like metallic chassis.

Unlike some of the other concepts floating around, Valeri's Surface Phone design doesn't include the anticipated multi-screen form factor as hinted at by Microsoft's various patents.

It does, however, include a cover that provides additional USB-C ports, boosted battery life, complete with a friction hinge that provides landscape viewing and tent mode.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect is the 3D-scanning concept Valeri has baked into the Surface Phone's camera. As Microsoft pushes further into holographic territory, I think it's fair to expect some sort of mixed reality play with any prospective Surface Phone, and maybe this could be it.

Microsoft does have a wealth of 3D scanning technology in their arsenal. From HoloLens' proximity mapping to Kinect's shape scanning tech, taking the real world into the virtual world would create a compelling USP for industries looking to dive deeper into these sorts of emerging markets.

As Microsoft continues to scale back its efforts in mobile, you have to wonder whether or not a "Surface Phone" will even see the light of day. However, with Windows 10 on ARM, the promise of continued updates to Windows 10 Mobile, and vague statements about future paradigms, there's still some hope. Albeit a slither.

What do you think of these Surface Phone concepts? Hit the comments, and be sure to check out the full presentation on Valeri's Behance page.

The statement followed an earlier claim by Nadella that Microsoft is not bringing another smartphone to market and will not follow competitors' smartphone rules. He is targeting a device that is "beyond the curve in mobile."

What that device will be and what strategy Microsoft will execute to ensure its success amidst a myriad of challenges are still mysteries. But that doesn't stop us from speculating based on the information that is available.

The challenge is massive and the approach multi-faceted

Nadella's promises evoked both anticipation and reservation among Windows phone fans, tech pundits, critics and Microsoft's manufacturing partners. But why would anyone reserve excitement when hearing such a claim from the man at Microsoft's helm?

Microsoft has a consistent history of failure in the smartphone space, which is virtually synonymous (for now) with the mobile space for which he is planning an ultimate mobile device. From Pocket PC to Window Mobile to Windows Phone and Window 10 Mobile, Microsoft's Windows-on-phone vision has never had significant consumer success.

Given the app gap and uninspiring developer and OEM support, it's difficult for many tech watchers to see how even an ultimate mobile device from Microsoft will succeed in the smartphone space where it has consistently failed.

What Android phone and iPhone users need to know about Windows phone

The fact that Microsoft is not targeting the smartphone space, but the mobile space, is one of the fundamental perception issues and challenges Microsoft must address as it executes its ultimate-mobile-device strategy.

If nothing else Microsoft has been very clear and consistent with its cryptic messaging that the company is "committed to mobile," not smartphones. Thus, the ultimate-mobile-device strategy must be broader than simply plopping a new device into a preexisting market segment.

Here are four things I feel Microsoft's ultimate-mobile-device strategy must address, either directly or indirectly, as the company positions itself for success in the mobile space:

• Getting mobile hardware into consumers hands.
• Differentiating between the smartphone and mobile space.
• Winning OEM partners to a new device category.
• Closing the app gap and garnering developer support.

These aren't trivial challenges, but I believe (and hope) that Microsoft's leadership and engineers are working on an ultimate-mobile-device strategy (not just a device) that takes these variables into account.

Getting devices to consumers requires an understanding of why they buy

This is Microsoft's greatest challenge, yet it is the most critical component of an ultimate mobile device strategy. Microsoft must get the device into the hands of users.

Given that most consumers who purchase a smartphone are influenced by family and friends, anything that looks like just another smartphone from Microsoft would likely be ignored.

One factor that motivates a consumer's smartphone purchase is the accompanying app ecosystem. Thus, any Windows-based mobile device, even if it is not categorically a smartphone, will suffer from the same app gap legacy and rejection Microsoft's previous mobile efforts have endured.

These challenges necessitate an ultimate-mobile-device strategy that does not "lead" with a smartphone form factor and is not propelled by an app ecosystem.

Microsoft and Qualcomm introduce cellular PCs.

Consumers and businesses will need to want this device for reasons other than what motivates users to buy smartphones. Still, once in users' hands it must be capable of fundamental "smartphone" functions.

Tapping into a different motivation to get mobile devices to users

Current data from research firm IDC reveals Microsoft's continued and projected success with 2-in-1s and laptops with increasingly mobile form factors:

Windows 10 on ARM: Microsoft's ultimate mobile device vision comes into focus

Thus, my vision of an ultimate mobile device is a composite device that "presents" as a full Windows 10 2-in-1. This apparent, smaller "Surface Book-like" device would actually be a shell or HP Lap Dock-like peripheral that houses the actual mobile device in the base or keyboard section of this dock.

What's on the inside matters

My vision of an ultramobile Surface PC that will power the peripheral via Continuum (and wirelessly project to the detached screen when docked) will be a pocketable Window 10 on ARM cellular PC with telephony via eSIM. Whether this ultramobile PC portion of the composite device has the foldable form factor patents suggest is inconsequential (though desired by fans).

The point is that this ultimate mobile device will be positioned, in part, as a Windows 10 2-in-1 PC via the Lap Dock-like peripheral. As such, it will target users who are in the market for what IDC reports is a successful and growing device form factor.

Windows 10 on ARM via emulation.

The ultramobile Surface PC portion of this device would be positioned as a phablet-sized Continuum-powered Windows 10 mini-tablet, which would also function as a phone.

Microsoft's Project Centennial app bridge makes sense of Win32 apps on phone

The "phone" aspects would not be the leading marketing message, however, since the target market would be 2-in-1 or laptop consumers looking for a mobility-focused productivity device (not smartphone consumers).

This strategy strategically places a Windows-on-mobile device that is capable of being a phone into the hands of consumers.

iPhone and Android phone users may not be inclined to ditch their phones for the phone aspects of this device (yet), but they may experiment with it or use it as a backup phone.

My ultimate mobile device strategy does not lead with a smartphone form factor, is not propelled by an app ecosystem, and as a 2-in-1 PC, it may be wanted by consumers and businesses for reasons other than those that motivate users to buy smartphones.

This is my speculative vision of how to get an ultimate mobile device to users.

How can Microsoft differentiate between smartphone and mobile?

Due to the dominance and mobility of smartphones as the most used personal computers, the smartphone and mobile spaces are seen as synonymous. Microsoft's ultimate mobile device strategy messaging must differentiate between the two.

The composite device that I described fits into two mobile categories. Laptops and 2-in-1s are powerful productivity PCs that have the mobility a desktop PC lacks (the docked device). Smartphones, due to their pocketable and always connected nature, have what can be defined as ultimate mobility (the device undocked).

Surface phone should be much more than just a 'phone'

The device vision I've described is simply a progression of the HP Elite x3 and Lap Dock vision Microsoft had a hand in developing. Rather than a Windows 10 Mobile phone (3-in-1) that only connects externally to a Lap Dock, I envision a full Windows 10 on ARM (smartphone-sized) cellular PC that can also be fully inserted into a Lap Dock-like peripheral (as well as connect to other screens and PCs via Continuum).

This concept of a composite device that has the mobility and productivity of a 2-in-1 when docked, and the ultimate mobility of a handheld device when undocked, would help businesses and consumers broaden their perception of what a mobile device is.

Winning OEM partners to a new device category

Many OEMs have little faith in Microsoft as the provider of a smartphone platform. The smartphone space is saturated, and there's little room for growth or profitability. Android claims most of the market's volume, while Apple claims most of its profits. Still, a presence in a space whose underpinnings are cellular connectivity, ARM and telephony is important.

Smartphones are dead: Evolve or die, Microsoft's ultramobile PC strategy

Though the overall PC space has seen year-over-year declines, 2-in-1s and mobile-focused laptops are predicted by IDC to continue to grow. An ultimate mobile device that is a merger of a device whose foundations are cellular connectivity, ARM and telephony with that of a popular productivity-focused PC form factor may be embraced by manufacturers.

It would allow OEMs to ride the success of a popular PC category while entering, without directly competing, in the cellular and telephony space. As a new category, early entry into this space may also be seen as strategically advantageous by some manufacturers, as well as a way to diversify product portfolios.

Closing the app gap and garnering developer support

The success of Microsoft's mobile vision ultimately rests on its ecosystem. The composite ultimate-mobile-device strategy that I presented has the appeal of a full Windows 10 2-in-1 that can be productively utilized without mobile apps. It also has, however, the ultramobile PC component that, though capable of running full Widows 10 apps with CShell when undocked, mobile apps are far more practical, relevant and, frankly, required.

What my vision potentially achieves is the circumvention of the need for a robust ecosystem before consumers purchase a Microsoft Windows-powered mobile device.

They will have bought it motivated by other reasons. Of course, sooner than later Microsoft would need to add value to the (more app-dependent) ultramobile PC undocked portion of this device via an improving ecosystem. An unprecedented effort to win developers and bridge the app gap must therefore simultaneously accompany the introduction of an ultimate mobile device.

If successful, this Trojan Horse strategy will potentially put millions of mobile devices in consumers' and businesses' hands that Microsoft can send updates and advertisements to (as it does now with Windows 10), drawing users attention to apps and features that are being progressively added to the ecosystem.

Such an ultimate mobile device strategy, could in time make the ultramobile PC portion of the composite device a more relevant mobile alternative to a user's iPhone or Android phone.

What's your ultimate-mobile-device strategy vision?

My idea of an ultimate-mobile-device strategy is admittedly quite detailed, but it is just one among thousands of possibilities. What is your ultimate-mobile-device vision? How would you get mobile hardware into consumers' hands? How would you attempt to close the app gap and garner developer support?

Sound off in comments! We'd love to hear your thoughts.

I also wrote:

With 'Surface phone,' will Microsoft learn from its past marketing mistakes?

If Microsoft doesn't kill at BUILD 2017 the Surface phone is dead on arrival

This is what has to happen first in order for a Surface phone to succeed

Is early 2018 too soon for a Surface phone?

I don't believe Microsoft will ever release a Surface Phone. I do believe Microsoft will launch a category-defining ultimate mobile device that will play to the company's strengths rather than its proven weakness. Smartphones are Microsoft's Achilles Heel. Thus, Microsoft's ultimate mobile device will not be a phone.

Many critics claim that due to Microsoft's poor mobile ecosystem a Surface-branded ultimate mobile device, even with all the bells and whistles, is doomed to failure. I made a similar argument not long ago.

I appealed to Microsoft to exhibit a show of force in various ecosystem-building areas at BUILD 2017. Microsoft needs to make great, even unorthodox, efforts to woo developers to its ecosystem and ensure the platform's relevance in the future of increasingly mobile personal computing. There are specific areas — UWP, apps, mindshare, partnerships and more — which Microsoft must address if the "Surface phone" is to succeed.

Though Microsoft must develop its ecosystem to ensure long-term success, I believe the company has a measured way back into the mobile space, without going head-to-head with Apple and Google. It's all in how Microsoft markets the ultramobile Surface PC: it's not a phone.

Recognizing strengths and weaknesses

Microsoft's way back into mobile won't be with a dramatic splash. It will have to be a slow, subtle and methodic progression — first dipping the toe, then slowly wading into ever-deeper water.

Microsoft will have to focus on its strengths, forsaking the traditional approach to mobile. That old model failed Microsoft, leading to retrenchment, refocusing on enterprise, and a less-than-one-percent market share with only a handful of OEM partners. Smartphones are not Microsoft's forte.

Its strength is in PCs, as its decades-long dominance proves. The success of the Surface brand is proof of Microsoft's talent for innovation.

Though Microsoft's CEO Satya Nadella conceded the smartphone war, he didn't concede the mobile space.

Nadella asserted Microsoft would launch an ultimate mobile device "beyond the curve in mobile." He's aware of Microsoft's weaknesses and strengths — category-defining PCs from the Surface Pro to Surface Studio to HoloLens are the future.

Smartphones are dead: Enter the ultramobile PC

I believe a Windows 10 ultramobile Surface PC with telephony is on the horizon, and that Microsoft can market it to the enterprise and consumers.

Mobile matters

Admittedly, there's been no official validation of an ultramobile Surface PC. I wouldn't expect such — Microsoft didn't pre-announce the Surface or HoloLens, either.

Despite its silence concerning mobile (and past failures) Redmond must bring something that plays toward its strengths to the mobile space.

The smartphone is currently the key to a company's broader ecosystem. Thus, a personal mobile device, not necessarily a smartphone, is a necessary component of Microsoft's UWP and Windows 10 Device family. Microsoft's pocketable mobile option will be a PC, not a phone.

There's demand for Windows laptops and 2-in-1 PCs

Microsoft's strength in PCs isn't founded only on its decades-long legacy as the provider of the dominant PC platform. Recent data that takes into account the company's category-defining strategy with the Surface progresses that legacy into the current era of personal computing and mobility.

Research firm IDC reported on the success of Windows laptops and 2-in-1s, finding that such devices are desired by consumers, and even predicting growth in the market over traditional tablets. Furthermore, JD Powers 2017 US Tablet Satisfaction Study found that customers are more satisfied with the productivity-focused Microsoft Surface than the consumption-focused iPad and Android tablets.

Riding the momentum

Microsoft's ultramobile Surface should, therefore, be marketed as a PC. Consumers want PCs, after all.

How might Microsoft market to the masses? Like the Surface Pro, it will likely have a heavy enterprise focus but with consumer appeal. It'll also be positioned to inspire manufacturing partners to mimic the concept and design.

The only visuals we have of what this potential device might look like are from patents and Microsoft Future Vision videos.

Did Microsoft give us a glimpse of its Surface phone vision?

This doesn't guarantee anything, but history has set a precedence. Skype Real-time Translation (and other technologies) were foreshadowed in Microsoft's future vision videos. Surface Studio patents were also reflective of what came to market, so too may these folding device patents eventually make it to reality (though, admittedly, they're probably a long way off).

Evolving a concept

Microsoft can advance the HP Lap Dock concept to be a more integrated experience to market the ultramobile Surface.

Redmond can promote what will initially appear to be a powerful, smaller and more portable Surface Book. In reality this "laptop" would be a peripheral which houses a fold-able Window 10 ultramobile cellular PC in the base which powers the peripheral (and wirelessly projects to the detached "digital clipboard") via Continuum.

As a Windows 10 PC users can use Win32 (and Store) apps which are practical in a "laptop" environment. Users could also experience all other Windows 10 features from inking, Windows Mixed-Reality and game streaming.

When the ultramobile PC is ejected from the peripherals base users can unfold it into a larger touch-friendly mini-tablet, run Store apps, connect to other PCs and screens via Continuum and purchase cellular data from the Store.

Finally, via eSIM the ultramobile Surface will be a "phone."

Microsoft's Trojan phone

The rumors of a Surface phone began about five years ago. But before the UWP and Continuum for phone, visualizing what value such a device would have brought to market is difficult. The consistent nature of Windows 10 across devices, CSHELL and the UWP has opened the door to a single device functioning as multiple devices by allowing hardware, OS, and apps to conform seamlessly to a user's context.

There's merit to Microsoft positioning an ultramobile Surface from a purely PC perspective. Consumers want Windows laptops and 2-in-1s after all, not phones. The proliferation of a new PC category into the market that is subtly also a phone allows Microsoft to wade slowly into the mobile space without a "rival-confronting" splash into the smartphone space.

While this strategy is being executed, Microsoft should aggressively and diligently build its ecosystem. Since the primary focus of this device is not on the needed Store apps of which there is a shortage, this strategy allows for category-defining phone hardware to get into the hands of consumers and businesses without the full impact of the detrimental app-gap effects associated with a purely phone-focused device.

A first step

As with any new device category, this will be a first-generation product that will use available tech. Just as we saw happen with smartphones, as the ultramobile PC category becomes established and expands, the devices will be become more powerful and may for many be able to be that one device that is every device for them — from phone to laptop to desktop to tablet.

Interestingly, Windows Insider Lead, Dona Sarkar, recently referenced how her Surface Book functions as a phone.

If nothing else Microsoft's mobile offensive is about changing the game.

I also wrote:

With 'Surface phone,' will Microsoft learn from its past marketing mistakes?

If Microsoft doesn't kill at BUILD 2017 the Surface phone is dead on arrival

This is what has to happen first in order for a Surface phone to succeed

Is early 2018 too soon for a Surface phone?

I recently argued that Microsoft needs to come clean on its smartphone ambitions – if it has any. Conflating its "commitment to mobile" with all laptops, tablets, and to competitors' smartphone platforms will not do. While I have my biases – yes, I enjoy using Windows 10 Mobile – my call was not only because I want a new Windows phone.

Instead, that analysis was really about Windows 10 and UWP as a platform. Without a smartphone OS, it is not clear how Microsoft will grow Windows 10 adoption. And I find that very concerning.

If not smartphones, then what?

On April 3, StatCounter claimed that based on its data Android use surpassed Windows usage across desktop, laptop, tablet, and mobile combined. StatCounter's numbers are subject to debate, but the overall trend based on browser use is not improbable.

Smartphones are the now dominant computing platform. While "real" PCs remain vital for enterprises, professionals, and gamers, the best computers for consumers fit in their pockets.

Currently, Microsoft sees UWP as an app platform for traditional PCs, laptops, tablets, Xbox, mixed reality (MR), Internet of Things (IoT), wearables, and phones. It's an ambitious goal. Developers can write an app once and send it to the device where it makes the most sense. Microsoft creates software "bridges" (such as Project Centennial) so developers can bring apps from and to other platforms.

The problem with that strategy is that the only popular category with significant mass adoption is smartphones, which is the weakest segment for Microsoft. Let's assume the company is finished with the smartphone category. The growth path for UWP is less obvious.

MR is years from mass adoption, UWP on Xbox is barely a thing (is anyone using those third-party apps?), and I already covered traditional PCs.

Without a play for smartphones, I have no idea how Windows 10 grows beyond 500 million users. I don't see how Microsoft will continue to attract developers to make UWP apps. Additional laptop and Surface sales will drive awareness and some adoption, but there won't be hundreds of millions of new PC owners soon (or likely ever).

I understand MR, IoT, and even wearables are nascent categories and, in some ways, Microsoft is positioned to dominate at least one of those (MR). But in the consumer space Google, Apple, and Amazon are beating the company everywhere else. Whether it is the "smart home" voice assistants, watches, or phones, Microsoft is behind or nonexistent.

On desktop, the web browser still dominates instead of UWP apps. UWP begins to make more sense as the display shrinks. After all, the very concept of "apps" in the modern sense begins with phones. Even I don't use many UWP apps on the Surface Studio. Give me a laptop, and my usage of UWP goes up. Put me on a smartphone, and suddenly I loathe using a web browser, and it's all about the apps. It is common sense.

While UWP is a noble paradigm, the most significant market for it is the one Microsoft has less than one percent of (and is shrinking fast): phones.

Apple pushed nearly 80 million iPhones just last year, and it has now sold more than one billion in total, according to research from Gartner. That's impressive because Apple has only 17.9 percent of the smartphone market with Android making up the other 82 percent. That's more than 300 million Android smartphones in just one year.

That's a lot of apps, as well as a lot of opportunity for developers. And it does nothing for the UWP platform or Windows 10.

This is about developers (developers, developers!)

Microsoft's conundrum with mobile is a serious one, and it's not just because smartphones are chic. The future of Windows 10 and UWP needs an area of rapid and sustained growth, not only for adoption of the OS but for monetary and market incentive for developers to want to make UWP apps.

I have said Microsoft needs to continue what it has been doing: reinventing device categories. Every Surface device so far has rethought the concept of computing. The Surface Studio is a brilliant re-take on the desktop space. Surface Pro and Surface Book popularized digital inking and 2-in-1s. Even HoloLens is setting the foundation for MR and holographic computing.

Microsoft must have a mobile strategy in place for the Windows ecosystem to be sustainable.

What I find most troublesome is not the unending anticipation for new hardware from Microsoft. Instead, it's the feeling that the company doesn't have a plan. In recent months, no one I have spoken to at Microsoft — on or off the record — has given me confidence that "the next big thing" is almost here. In fact, my sense is that there's chaos behind the scenes when it comes to smartphones and mobile.

In 2015, Chris Capossela, the chief marketing officer (CMO) at Microsoft, referred to the company's mobile strategy as "massively retrenched". I was willing to cut them some slack on that idea. Taking a year or two to lay low while you put your "A-Team" on new hardware and build out the OS seemed like the right approach. From Capossela:

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella was on the same page as Capossela and noted that if its partners did not make Windows phones, Microsoft would. In July 2015, Nadella told All About Microsoft's Mary Jo Foley this:

Those three smartphone segments were enterprise, budget, and flagship. In 2017, the "operational details" are as clear as mud, and there is no budget and no flagship phones in sight.

Since Microsoft's OEM partners have not picked up the slack (and you can't blame them), Microsoft should be fixing this problem. Quoting Nadella again:

The world is waiting.

Going back to UWP and Windows 10 Nadella said this about being "path dependent:"

While that plan sounded plausible in 2015, two years later it feels underwhelming. That alleged "billion" never materialized, and there is no path to get there, at least that we know of. If UWP needs critical mass, Microsoft obviously needs a way to achieve that.

At a time when Microsoft should have been putting all its resources into the fastest growing category for computing, the company instead abandoned it. This problem is not just bad for Windows phone fans, it's bad for Windows 10, UWP and Microsoft's consumer future.

The big question is not whether Microsoft has a solution to this problem. It is whether Microsoft even knows it has one. I'm not confident that's the case. And that's another problem.

In 2017, the commercial status of Windows Mobile is sealed and arguably has been ever since the Nokia "McLaren" was canceled in mid-2014. With Microsoft undoing the Nokia mobile acquisition and ending phone hardware with the Lumia 650 there has been little uptake by other manufacturers to fill that gap.

Nadella needs to say at Build next month exactly what Microsoft's plans (if any) are for its mobile ambitions. And to get around any cutesy wordplay with the term "mobile," I don't mean tablets and laptops, but phones.

Give users closure or hope, not mixed messages

The current situation is particularly troublesome. Were Microsoft to pull the plug on Windows 10 Mobile and again specifically smartphones, the industry would roll with it. After all, mainstream tech media has been calling for the demise of Windows phone for years, and even dedicated fans are giving up on the platform.

In other words, were Microsoft to quit Windows phones, no one would be shocked nor surprised. At the very least, however, fans of Microsoft and those in tech who wish for a "third way" would have a definitive answer.

Right now, Microsoft is sending mixed messages. With no new Lumias and noble, but limited, attempts from Alcatel and HP, there is just no compelling Windows phone hardware. Normally, that is enough to call a platform dead, yet Microsoft is continually updating and yes, improving Windows 10 Mobile.

In fact, I can easily make a compelling case that the Windows 10 Mobile Creators Update is significantly better, faster, more reliable, and more fun to use than it was just six months ago. It is obvious Microsoft is improving things. But to what end?

Adherents to Windows 10 Mobile accepted this Schrödinger-like duality for the last few years, expecting the proverbial shoe to drop with a "Surface phone." That has not happened, and in October it will be two years since the Lumia 950 and Lumia 950 XL were announced, which were themselves disappointments.

Where is all of this going, Microsoft?

Microsoft did not even see it fit to upgrade Windows Phone 8.1 devices without making the user go out of their way, and now we recently learned that the Creators Update will siphon off even more devices.

Rumors are picking up that after the "Redstone 3" update due in October, Microsoft will discontinue all development on Windows 10 Mobile. While no one would exactly be surprised, the question is why even bother with the dance with consumers? Is it, as some have speculated, to fulfill the two-year support for the last Lumias?

Forget consumers, what about developers?

Developers are the core of Microsoft, stretching back famously to the days of Steve Ballmer, but even they are now left scratching their heads. Developers are abandoning Windows phones more than ever, dropping support for apps and not replacing it with modern Universal Windows Platform (UWP) versions as Microsoft had anticipated.

With less than one percent of the smartphone market share, no one even blames a company like Spotify for dropping Windows phone. That's to say nothing of indie developers who literally cannot afford to make apps for an OS that they see as being dead.

Once these developers are gone, it will be nearly impossible to bring them back. Android and iOS have cemented their positions in the mobile space. Android has the most market, but iOS pays developers the most. Windows 10 Mobile, and even Windows 10? Eh, not so much.

Unless UWP becomes so platform neutral that developers have zero coding to do for Windows 10 Mobile, there is little hope for Microsoft ever to reenter the smartphone space. Even UWP, while virtuous, is hitting some walls with PC users who still prefer to use a web browser.

Mobile is critical for future computing

One of the biggest and yet non-surprising stories of 2017 is Android displacing Windows as the world's most dominant OS. Smartphones are ubiquitous, having plateaued as a consumer category in 2014. Apple and Google's partners are basically in maintenance mode now, releasing new hardware and OS iterations on the clock every year.

Microsoft has completely missed this revolution.

It's not for lack of trying but rather because of misstep after misstep. There is nothing quite like the story of how Microsoft got smartphones wrong starting back in 2007. It's up there with losing web browser share to Google Chrome. The tech world stands in awe of how incompetently Microsoft has handled the smartphone category. All of this despite having an OS that was fascinating, unique, and for a while fun.

Microsoft is betting on a 'paradigm shift' for Windows 10 Mobile to be competitive

Without a card in the smartphone game Microsoft's Windows 10 seems somewhat doomed to business laptops and PCs. Sure, HoloLens and Xbox are very exciting platforms for Windows 10 and UWP to expand to, but both are minuscule and unproven compared to smartphones.

Remember how Microsoft chest thumped about hitting one billion Windows 10 devices two years ago? The company has not even hit 500 million, and that is for one reason: smartphones. With that category completely collapsing, Windows 10 can only go so far.

Don't tell me that smartphones are not essential to the Windows 10 and UWP strategy. They're crucial.

'There is a plan for mobile'

Some recent – and informed – reports lead some of us covering Microsoft to believe its strategy is to fold Windows 10 Mobile completely into Windows 10 proper. Technologies such as OneCore, CSHELL, Win32 emulation, and getting Windows 10 run on ARM processors with e-SIM support make that play somewhat obvious.

In that sense, there is some clever wordplay I'm hearing. "Yeah, Windows 10 Mobile is dead, but Windows 10 on MOBILE is not."

If this is the case, Microsoft needs to spell this out at the Build developer conference next month.

• Does Microsoft want to reboot the concept of a phone?
• Why Microsoft keeps working on Windows 10 Mobile: ARM, cellular, and the next big thing

If Microsoft sees a revolution in mobile computing that is unlike anything on the market today – akin to how HoloLens and holographic computing gave the industry a jolt in January 2015 – then tell us.

At the very least tease it and tell us how you are going to get there.

I keep hearing from people off the record at Microsoft saying, "there is a plan for mobile." I want to believe that is the case, but with the core audience and developers leaving, and the lack of confidence from the media no one thinks Microsoft can do this Herculean task.

Apple caught a ton of flak for its lackluster new MacBook Pros and apparent abandonment of Mac Pro hardware. Recently, the company had an honest mea culpa moment with the media trying to get back on track. Nearly everyone gave them a slow golf clap for at least owning up to past mistakes.

Microsoft needs to do that now for mobile and smartphones. If Microsoft is done with smartphones, then so be it. Tell the world, so everyone can move on and grab the latest Android or iPhone. (They already are anyway.) Just don't string your core audience around with continued OS updates and an unclear goal.

Microsoft has shown signs of greatness during the last few years, but smartphones are not one of them. That needs to change next month.

Sadly, it seems that many, not all, of those fans, are also becoming the most jaded, cynical, aggressive and downright cruel group of anti-fans on the web. What happened to that jovial bunch of loyalists that began embracing Windows Phone 7, Microsoft's unique mobile OS, back in 2010?

Paradise lost

Many unique features of Windows Phone 7 seduced fans to embrace Microsoft's refreshed mobile OS seven years ago. As a reboot of Microsoft's mobile efforts, the Windows Phone OS was touted by Microsoft and fans as beautiful, fluid, light and buttery smooth.

The OS-level integration of various services almost made the OS the "app for that" that other platforms needed an actual app for. The idea of hubs and Rooms were also fan favorites. The phones control center - the Me Tile- represented the apex of the Live Tile user interface we all loved. All of that was coupled with esteemed Nokia hardware that dominated nearly 100 percent of all Windows phones in the market.

We, fans, bragged about "our" industry leading camera tech that was recognized as the standard to beat. When little else was respected by "our" rivals and the advocates of competing platforms we at least had the best camera tech and an OS so light that it ran optimally on even low-end hardware.

Unfortunately, literally, all of that changed. Well, we still have Live Tiles. But after seven years there has been no radical evolution in their functionality besides new sizes, grouping and chaseable notifications. Exploding tiles which was hinted at years ago seems a forgotten hope.

Hell hath no fury

Culminating in its present iteration, Windows 10 Mobile, Microsoft has shifted Windows on phone toward a more app centric, less fluid, "heavier" OS, with little of its original appeal. Microsoft even introduced Android-esque UI elements to entice android developers. Needless to say, UI changes like hamburger menus and smaller text that didn't flow across the UI altered Windows phone fans familiar experience and angered many.

To add insult to injury, the UI changes failed in their intended goal, Android developers never came. Loyalist's confidence in Microsoft's decisions about mobile continued to wane.

Furthermore, former CEO Steve Ballmer famously or infamously pushed Microsoft into smartphone hardware with the purchase of Nokia's phone division. Current CEO Satya Nadella (famously or infamously) pushed the company out of smartphone hardware, barring aspirational category-defining devices via Microsoft's Devices team, with the write-off of the Nokia purchase.

The loss of the Nokia camera team and the strategic focus on camera technology that would have likely kept Windows phones at the helm of mobile photography was a massive blow to the fan base. "Why surrender the one advantage 'we' have and that competitors acknowledge?" many thought.

All of these changes have been a bitter pill for fans to swallow. Furthermore, the promises of a strong mobile presence, as part of the Universal Windows Platform have also begun to ring hollow for fans. Outside of a couple of big name OEMs, smaller locally relevant OEMs bear the difficult burden of ensuring Windows phones are a known entity in the market. A simple query to "Joe Consumer," who will likely respond with a quizzical look reflecting little or no awareness of Windows phones will reveal just how difficult a task that is without Microsoft's aggressive support.

Windows phone fans, have ridden these changes through a range of emotions from disappointment to anger, and at times unbridled rage.

Window phone fans scorned

If those ire-inducing shifts in the platform were not enough Microsoft's unpopular retrenchment strategy began with a reduction of markets for its first-party phones and a focus on devices for Windows fans, the enterprise and value consumers. A reliance on OEM partners became the primary means to bring phones to the mass market. Very few OEMs took up the mantle. It was a reasonable strategy, particularly, if Microsoft had been successful with bringing more OEMs on board while keeping first-party hardware in the market as they initially promised.

Had Microsoft stuck to that course Windows on phone, even if only via first-party devices, would have likely maintained some level of visibility among consumers. Unfortunately, Microsoft later undermined its own efforts to garner much needed OEM and developer support by publicly declaring Windows Mobile as an enterprise-focused OS. This commitment was made despite the contradicting reality that OEM partners like Alcatel and WhartonBrooks were providing (and preparing to provide) Windows phones for consumers.

Windows Mobile and the Enterprise: Out of sight, out of mind

Naturally, publicly announcing its mobile OS as enterprise-focused signaled to developers that Microsoft's mobile strategy had no consumer play. Not even among OEMs who might embrace this enterprise-focused OS for consumer-focused markets. Consequently, fans have watched as developers, who see little promise of an all-important consumer-focused mobile presence, withdraw their apps from the platform and OEMs, like Nuans changed its focus to Android. The flow of news of new apps coming to the platform and others that are receiving much-needed updates is sadly overshadowed by the growing permanence of an air of negativity within the Windows phone community.

The continual downward spiral of the platform with no word of hope from Microsoft fuels the anger and disappointment many Windows phone fans feel. This anger grows with each subsequent disappointment and fans are unable to productively direct it toward the source of their pain, Microsoft.

You hurt the ones closest to you

All of this frustration-inducing activity has fans helplessly watching what has become an almost ritualistic cycle of the rise and fall of each iteration of Windows on phone. From Pocket PC to Windows Mobile to Windows Phone to Windows 10 Mobile each progression has left a trail of disenchanted fans and disenfranchised developers. Many people are confident Microsoft could have done or can still do something to resolve these platform problems. But with what many see as the company's apathy and its actual "radio silence" regarding what's next (as Windows 10 Mobile wanes) fans anger is compounded.

Microsoft is a multi-billion dollar "faceless" company that doesn't seem to hear the cries for change and expressions of discontent from the fans. The rants on social media, responses via official feedback channels or even professionally composed emails to Microsoft that express the will of the fans may seem like pointless shouts into a hurricane.

Consequently, many frustrated fans and bitter "anti-fans" (ex-fans who have deserted the platform but can't stay away from Windows phone-focused articles, comment sections, forums and social media conversations ) who can't take their anger out on Microsoft, settle on proxy targets - fans who are still optimistic about the platform.

A sad commentary

The comments sections of articles are a common meeting ground for fans of a particular platform, in this case, Windows phone, to gather and share their thoughts. They are the digital marketplaces designed for intellectual discourse on the topics presented in a piece. Those who hold an opposing view are also welcome to join in the community's conversation via a respectfully presented rebuttal.

Sadly, this particular forum, comments sections, has devolved into a toxic environment of insults, personal attacks, and uncensored cruelty. These offenses are usually carried out by anti-fans against individuals who are bold and secure enough to show optimism about Microsoft's effort within an environment saturated with disappointment and anger. Moreover, it's not that the optimistic are naïve, or haven't seen or experienced what the community has endured. They just see the glass as half full.

The pseudo-anonymity of the web may embolden some individuals to exhibit levels of cruelty they may not otherwise exhibit in other areas of their lives. Perhaps, in a person's physical presence, these same people would exhibit a greater degree of empathy and patience for a person with a differing opinion. To that point, I remind the Windows phone community that on the other side of your screen, on the flip-side of the username at which you may be angrily banging out an insult, is a person who is just as real as you are.

That person has likely experienced the same up and down, disappointing, financially burdensome and emotionally draining journey that you have experienced with Microsoft's vacillating mobile efforts.

They're part of the community and your beef really isn't with them, they want what you want.

We're all on the same team…right?

Fans who frequent Windows phone articles are not the only ones to fall victim to becoming aggressors of unprovoked insults. Sadly, even writers who are (or were) passionate about Windows phones (but write for different sites) have also engaged in this self-destructive behavior. Aren't we all on the same team, writing about, promoting and advocating for a platform we love?

As members of a tiny loyalist community for an underdog platform is it wise or even profitable to allow frustrations with Microsoft to provoke animosity or rudeness between one another simply because of a difference of perception? I don't think so.

Fellow writer Michael Allison from MSPoweruser used to do a weekly roundup of Windows phone and Microsoft news that he culled from various sites from around the web including content from Windows Central. No one person or site has all of the answers or sees the whole picture. I applaud that previous effort by Michael.

Hurt (adjective) people, hurt (verb) people

Sadly, there seems to be a cycle of behavior where when a person is hurt, they then lash out and hurt others. That aggression is often directed at individuals who had no part in hurting the offended party.

We see this behavior repeatedly within the Windows phone community. When a new app is announced or updated, cynical retorts are hurled at those efforts to belittle the support it brings the platform. When an OEM, like HP, Alcatel or WhartonBrooks embraces the platform to bring more Windows phones to the market, the leaders of those efforts are stabbed and slashed with razor-like criticisms.

Moreover, people who decide to support the efforts of these OEMs by buying a Windows phone rather than an iPhone or Android phone sometime become secondary targets of some individuals' opinions. Don't we all have a right to buy whatever smartphone we wish without being insulted by someone who has a different preference? Of course, we do.

It's wise to remember that we are all people whether we know each other personally or not. Our value is summed up by far more than what smartphone we buy or don't buy. Devaluing one another with words or insults because of a smartphone choice does not respect that inherent value and says more about the character of the insulter rather than that of the insulted.

Self-fulfilling prophecy?

People or companies who will invest in a platform use various measures to guide their decision. The size of the market share and the activity of the app stores are big and visible measures. For a platform like Windows phones both of those measures are uninspiring. Thus, investment in the platform is a pooling of factors like the potential of future technologies, potential markets for those technologies as well as the state or dedication of the current fan base among other things.

What the fan base (that has been with Microsoft for years) has to say about the company, how those fans engage the market and even interacts among themselves speaks volumes to potential developers and OEM partners about the potential success of Microsoft's future efforts. It also speaks to the potential success (or lack thereof) of a developers or OEM's investment in the platform.

What do developers and companies see when they visit forums, comments sections, social media and other venues to get a pulse of the Windows phone community? They see what many of us see, legitimate concerns about Microsoft's efforts as well as a broken foundation of self-damaging in-fighting and cruelty.

This would discourage almost anyone concerning the cohesion of the current fanbase and their ability to help move forward any investments from developers, OEMs or any other party interested in the platform.

Thus, failure of the platform, though Microsoft has the major onus, could be exasperated by negativity and cruelty toward one another that is neither right nor necessary. If not motivated by moral reasons, being nice within the community can help with perceptions of the platform.

What did fellow fans or OEMs ever do to you?

Your fellow Windows phone fans "signed in next to you" didn't put Windows phone in the dismal state it is in. They want it to succeed as badly as you do. The OEMs that are investing millions to bring Windows phone to market didn't cause the problems we have endured with the platform we all enjoy. As a matter of fact, they're trying to make the platform Microsoft's re-trenchment strategy made invisible in the market, visible again.

OEMs like Alcatel, HP and WhartonBrooks are investing varying levels of resources to make the platform that many feel Microsoft failed to market, a success in different segments of the market.

Sadly, rather than offering the support of a kind word in acknowledgment of the efforts of these businesses, criticisms denouncing their sincere efforts abound.

It's nice to be nice

Folks, Window phone is in bad shape. Is there hope ahead? I am optimistic, but if that hope is misplaced… so be it. I and those other glass-half-full types among the community would simply be wrong. That's it. If, however, our hope is proven well placed with a future success of a category-defining ultramobile Surface PC with telephony, full Windows with CShell and a mature ecosystem, then you are wrong. That's it.

Regardless of who's right or who's wrong, one thing is common: we all love Windows phones. None of us in the community caused what we are experiencing in a decline of a platform we all embrace. The loss of features we loved, dropping market share, withdrawn Lumias, lack of abundant OEM support, an enterprise focus of Windows 10 Mobile and a host of stops and restarts that "stranded" users and developers apps on devices that couldn't be upgraded happened to all of us. Taking your anger out on other victims of circumstance is both misplaced and wrong.

And even if you could direct all of your anger at the company that is the real source of your anger, a professional expression of your concerns would be more productive the emotion-laden rants we've grown accustomed to reading.

The Windows phone community seems to be imploding beneath a critical mass of frustrations and disappointment. Misdirected anger at fellow fans is crushing the community from within and could be contributing negatively to the future of the platform.

Folks, nobody and no company is perfect but for so many reasons it's simply nice to be nice.

Whether there is or was an actual lack of passion from Microsoft is irrelevant. As a company that hoped for a broad consumer embrace of Windows phones, the perception of disinterest from Microsoft was just as detrimental as an actual lack of the same.

Windows phone fans who accuse Microsoft of a less than optimal affection for its mobile efforts often cite a lack of marketing. This accusation certainly seems valid considering what we've seen (and haven't seen) in the way of advertising of Windows phones. This perception is particularly apparent when we consider the amount of marketing that comes from far more successful smartphone makers such as Apple and Samsung.

But marketing takes many forms, and if you ask Microsoft, it would likely argue the company did invest liberally in marketing Windows phones, just not in the manner one would expect.

We'll look at those other marketing methods in this piece and consider if in hindsight Microsoft might do things differently to market its ultimate mobile device: the ultramobile Surface PC.

The face of in-your-face marketing

You can't forget what never leaves your field of view. Microsoft's competition seems to subscribe to this belief, but Microsoft itself has not embraced that philosophy. Beautiful, well-crafted, seducing iPhone and Samsung Galaxy ads have consistently graced our television screens for years.

Knowing that thousands of consumers were being lured into the Apple and Google ecosystems by these seductive ads has been a pain point for Window phone fans. We've been forced to helplessly watch as unrelenting marketing from entrenched market leaders yielded greater market and mindshare for those companies.

Many people have concluded that those same efforts, combined with Microsoft's lack of equally consistent investments, led to the decreased market share and mindshare of Windows phones. Lest we forget, Microsoft did come out of the gates running. Early in Windows Phone 7 history, even up to Windows Phone 8, Microsoft and its carrier partners peppered memorable Windows phones ads on TV. This Lumia 1020 commercial is a classic:

Those highly visible television spots were less consistent than the persistent flow of ads from rivals Apple and Samsung. Compared to those rivals' connected tapestry of ads that communicated a consistent narrative to consumers, Microsoft's sporadic TV spots were like a collection of disconnected "short stories" that struggled to connect with consumers.

Consistency matters. A lack of consistency, therefore, precludes the establishment of a sound foundation.

Choosing your battles

By the time Microsoft entered the space with its attention-getting attempts, its rivals were entrenched, and consumers were deeply invested in Apple's and Google's ecosystems. The millions of dollars rivals were pouring into television ads were reaffirming messages to the already-converted masses and pulling others into the fold.

Perhaps Microsoft deemed the costs of fighting a battle for the iPhone- and Android phone-focused minds of the masses via costly TV spots too risky an endeavor. No one knew about Microsoft's mobile platform with the unique tiled interface, after all. Consequently, Microsoft's television ad campaign strategy would have had to be a persistent, long-lasting and very expensive three-pronged endeavor.

First Microsoft would have had to build awareness for a virtually unknown platform in a "noisy" space where consumers didn't think another viable platform existed. Secondly, Microsoft would have had to educate consumers via succinct (approximately 30 seconds) but effective ads about the merits of its unique platform. Third, in a space where consumers only wanted iPhones and Android phones, Microsoft would have had to persuade users that Windows phones were a better option.

To pry users' hearts and minds from the ads that reaffirmed what they had already embraced with ads that would garner their enduring attention would have required profound creativity and dedication.

If rival companies were not already entrenched, and consumers were not already thoroughly aware of and invested in those ecosystems, and Microsoft's efforts did not require building awareness of and educating the masses about an unknown entity, Redmond may have pursued more aggressive television campaigns. Given what Microsoft was up against, however, it likely deemed the probability of success for an ad campaign of that magnitude too low to commit to investing the necessary resources. Thus, Microsoft focused its marketing efforts elsewhere.

Connecting products as a marketing strategy

During Microsoft's Convergence 2015 event, Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) Chris Capossela shared his marketing strategy:

Capossela shared Microsoft's attempts to mimic the success Apple and Google achieved by building marketing into their products. This strategy is designed to lead to an interconnection of products where the use of one product would give rise to the use of another.

The following graphic is a snapshot in time. The size of the circles represents how many people were using a particular company's product, and the lines represent the connections between products. Yellow represents Apple, purple Google, and blue Microsoft.

Clearly, the crisscrossing network of yellow and purple lines reflect that both Apple and Google succeeded in building connections that lead users from one of the respective company's products to another. Capossela acknowledged how in the U.S., Apple needed only to advertise the iPhone and iPad, and that was sufficient to ensure a user buy-in to Apple's broader ecosystem.

Microsoft's clearly-disconnected graph represented a profound need to improve interconnections between its products and services. Capossela said the following:

Build marketing into its products, then acquire, engage and enlist

Any Windows phone fan at any stage in the platform's history would agree that Microsoft needed to acquire more Windows phone users. Fans who have bemoaned the lack of aggressive television ad campaigns would certainly agree. They would argue that massive financial investments at the first stage of Capossela's "acquisition, engage and enlist" marketing strategy were necessary. There was even a time when Capossela would have agreed.

Acquire

Capossela stated the following:

Capossela used Microsoft's release of Office for the iPhone and Android, which resulted in tens of thousands of immediate downloads because users knew the brand, as an example. No marketing required. Millions of people use Windows PCs and Microsoft services. People knew the brand. Windows phones were another product in this broadly accepted and deeply integrated, personal and professional ecosystem.

Consequently, the company chose a marketing strategy as part of which it hoped to leverage the Microsoft and Windows brands and the integration of the phone in its broadly accepted ecosystem of products and services rather than the heavy marketing of Windows phones at the "acquisition" stage. Microsoft likely perceived Windows as the "locomotive" that would pull the Windows phone "caboose" forward.

Engage

Microsoft chose to "connect the product lines," such as an initial exclusivity of Cortana on Windows phones. Fans may remember Group Program Manager for Cortana Marcus Ash asserting Cortana exclusivity on Windows phones as a draw to the platform.

Other connections were the company's promotion of a default inclusion of Office on Windows phones and limited integration with Xbox games. Given the advantage of hindsight, such a heavy dependence on "engaging" users as a primary marketing method with so little effort at the acquisition stage may have been a naïve miscalculation on Microsoft's part.

Microsoft may have overcalculated the strength of its brand in relation to what investments would have been needed to break significantly into the mobile space. Perhaps a more balanced approach would have led to greater success. Especially because Microsoft's strategy also includes bringing the breadth of its software and services to competing platforms, which undercuts exclusivity advantages Windows phones would otherwise have had.

Marketing, it's in there

Capossela shared how Microsoft seeks to use engineering to build marketing into its products and expend less money on marketing:

The Surface, Surface pen and OneNote integration is a great example of how Microsoft leadership got various teams to work together to achieve such a high level of product cohesion. Now that Devices Chief Panos Panay and the Surface team are building Microsoft's ultimate mobile device, can we expect a similar cohesion of current innovations, such as mixed reality and digital inking? Could Microsoft have done more with Windows phones in the past?

Capossela stated:

That statement assures us of both Microsoft's investments in quality design and of the company's desire to minimize marketing dollars. Apple's and Samsung's philosophies seem to embrace Microsoft's vision for quality of design but also a less reserved approach to aggressive financial investments in marketing.

As Microsoft learned from Apple's and Google's integration of services, perhaps a lesson can be gleaned about more liberal marketing expenditures in time for the debut of the ultramobile Surface PC.

Enlist

The final stage of Capossela's marketing strategy is enlisting. It is at this stage that diehard Windows phone loyalists play an active role. It is also the stage that costs Microsoft nothing in the way of marketing. In fact, it is to this stage that any company hopes to transition a sizable portion of its user base.

Apple and Google have acquired, engaged and enlisted hordes of fans who, through word of mouth and other means, passionately advocate for those platforms. The millions of Windows phone fans who make up the less than one percent of the smartphone market are a vocal, passionate but faint whisper among the thunderous rumbles of the competition's enlisted fans. Caposella shared the following about how Microsoft views its fans:

Microsoft obviously failed to acquire and engage a relevant number of Windows phone fans. One may wonder how Microsoft might have been able to use its fan base to promote Windows phones if the company had achieved a more impressive measure of success.

As it stands now, the company's Insider Program and the program's leader Dona Sarkar are clearly meant to keep fans engaged, and through software build releases keep them talking about the platform. Without the Insider Program, the hopes of many Windows phone fans would have long withered away, and with them, Microsoft's free marketing resource of enlisted fans.

History is the best teacher

When Microsoft reenters the mobile space, it won't be with a smartphone but (presumably) with an ultramobile Surface PC. As a PC first, with telephony attributes, it will not be positioned to compete directly with smartphones, though it will overlap the smartphone space.

This ultramobile Surface PC will be a category-defining device that Microsoft will need to introduce to the masses proactively. Hopefully, the company will have learned from past mistakes that a more balanced marketing approach of television ads combined with the integration of services is more effective than an overreliance on one method over the other.

The fact that the ultramobile Surface PC will be part of the Surface family bodes well for the product. Microsoft has been far more aggressive about its advertisements, promotions, partnerships and product placements of Surface PCs than it has been for its phones. Microsoft's confidence in both its Surface brand and its PCs is evident. Smartphones, however, have been the company's Achilles heel.

It will be interesting to see if Microsoft will combine its confidence in its Surface brand and PC prowess with a more balanced approach to the marketing of the ultramobile PC. Microsoft has learned from competitors how to engineer marketing into its products.

But has the company learned that for certain product categories, television marketing campaigns are likely a necessary supplement to its existing marketing?

Microsoft's smartphone strategy: Rules of engagement, and business unusual

Microsoft watcher h0x0d unearthed the patent this morning, which shows a center-folding configuration, not unlike the ill-fated Microsoft Courier device of yesteryear.

As usual, be aware that patents don't always equal products. Companies frequently file prototypes and even ideas that will never emerge from the drafting table as a protectionary measure. However, given the raft of previous patents Microsoft has filed on this particular configuration, I'd say it's safe to say that the company is at least exploring a foldable cellular PC design for an upcoming handset or tablet.

The patent was originally filed in 2015 and was made public just yesterday. Unlike the previous folding phone patents which largely focus on hinges, this one provides a solution for reducing the visual impact from a screen that is comprised of several separate displays.

The patent discusses not just folding mobile devices, but also larger, tiled displays, made up of multiple screens.

Essentially, Microsoft is proposing a multi-layered screen where the segmented panels feature a curvature towards the edges, beneath a single upper layer. The lower curve is designed to create an optical trick that will draw light away from the gaps between the tiled display, making the screen appear as a continuous image on the outer display.

This methodology, presumably, would create folding phone displays that feature multiple active screens, but appear as a single, continuous image. The concept harkens back to various bendy devices seen in Microsoft's future visions video.

If Microsoft can pull this off, it would give any future mobile PC a truly unique, almost sci-fi form factor a device like the Surface Phone would need to shrug off comparisons to the iPhones and Samsung Galaxies out there.

Whether this patent idea leads to a physical, real-world product or not remains unknown, but it offers a tantalizing glimpse at the futuristic things Microsoft's innovative hardware design labs are doing behind the scenes. Hopefully, we won't have to wait long to find out if this is a real thing.

• More: Should the Surface Phone run full Windows?
• Microsoft awarded patents for a range of foldable mobile devices
• Job listings point to Microsoft's continued support of Windows Mobile

The Windows 10 Creators Update is now basically done, meaning Insider should already be testing the final bits. We also talk the Surface Phone, and how some of us thing it should run Windows 10 Mobile and others think it should run full Windows 10. All that and more on this weeks episode!

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Show Notes

• 1:55: New build and RTM
• 9:50 Surface Book 2
• 30:40 Surface Phone OS
• 50:00 Microsoft Teams Launch
• 53:15 Windows 7 update blocks
• 59:00 Dell XPS 27 Review

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The Surface Phone, however mythical it may be, is a popular topic among Microsoft, Surface and Windows Phone fans. To many, it's Microsoft's next attempt at breaking into the smartphone market, while at the same time reinventing how we think about smartphones altogether. That's a lot to live up to, and with Microsoft bringing full Windows 10 to ARM-based processors, rumors of the company looking to put full Windows on the Surface Phone quickly began circulating.

I get the hype around a phone running full Windows 10. With CShell, full Windows 10 would look just like Windows 10 Mobile does when in phone mode, and it would scale up perfectly when in Continuum for an experience that's identical to that of a normal Windows 10 desktop. The win32 apps would only work in Continuum mode and would normally be hidden in phone mode. The experience makes sense on paper. But I don't think it's a good idea.

For starters, many would describe Windows 10 as a much heavier, and maybe even a less-secure OS compared to Windows 10 Mobile. What's more, I don't want win32 apps on my phone. Win32 apps are old, and on ARM processors it will be emulated, meaning performance will likely be a little worse (or maybe a lot worse) than if it ran natively. I truly believe Microsoft should stick with Windows 10 Mobile with its rumored Surface Phone. Here's why.

With CShell, it doesn't matter

CShell is coming to both full Windows 10 and Windows 10 Mobile, meaning you'll still get that very same desktop experience when in Continuum mode and that enhanced phone experience when in phone mode. For consumers, the only real difference between full Windows 10 and Windows 10 Mobile is that full Windows 10 is heavier and has Win32 support. Windows 10 Mobile is more streamlined and efficient for devices on the go. Not having Win32 on a Surface Phone is a good thing in my book.

The future of mobile doesn't rely on Win32, so it makes no sense to try to shoehorn it into a phone. Microsoft should take advantage of a Universal Windows Platform (UWP)-only SKU of Windows, and with Windows 10 Mobile it can do that. I've tossed around the idea before, but I think Microsoft should change the name of Windows 10 Mobile to something else, something that separates it from the "phone" reputation it has.

In fact, I think Microsoft should steer clear of the "phone" brand altogether, for hardware too. On the inside, it'll be a phone, but on the outside, Microsoft can and should market it a lightweight Surface device for use on the go. It could still make phone calls and have LTE connectivity. But don't call it a phone — call it Surface Pocket, or Surface Go, something to separate it from the iPhone or Samsung Galaxys.

The idea here is to sell it as a product that comes with Windows 10, not Windows 10 Mobile or full Windows 10. Just Windows 10. Microsoft should be clear that it's a lightweight version of Windows, for UWP apps only, and release it to the world. With CShell, Microsoft can do all kinds of crazy things with hardware, including make foldable phones, or it could stick with a more traditional phone form factor with accessories such as a Lap Dock or Desk Dock, similar to the HP Elite x3. (What Microsoft should do with the hardware is a whole other topic for another day.)

My point here is nobody really wants Win32 on a phone. We're living in a mobile world, where apps themselves are slowly dying. I really think Microsoft should leverage what it already has with Windows 10 Mobile, give it a new lick of paint and deliver it to hardware makers as a lightweight edition of Windows. Maybe that way, developers will take UWP more seriously, and as a result, more apps will show up in the Store.

I wouldn't be surprised if, eventually, we see Windows 10 Mobile running on lightweight laptops thanks to CShell. Of course, at that point it wouldn't even be called Windows 10 Mobile, but the UWP only-ness of Windows 10 Mobile would still be there. Whether you want to call it IoT, Mobile, or something else entirely, the point is I think Microsoft should take advantage of a UWP-only Windows. Not today, but in the future, when the world is far more prepared for it. Hopefully, by then we'd be able to avoid another "Windows RT" scenario, because the majority of apps that people use will be available in the Windows Store.

Full Windows 10, or Windows 10 Mobile?

Now, I'm going to play devil's advocate for a minute, but only because I see why people want full Windows 10 on a phone. For starters, being able to run Win32 in a Continuum environment from your phone would be incredibly handy, especially for people who aren't necessarily all-in on the Windows ecosystem. That's the beauty of Windows: you can be entirely in Google's ecosystem but still run Windows. That would be less true of a Surface Phone powered by Windows 10 Mobile.

Apart from being able to run Win32 apps, I honestly don't see why full Windows 10 with CShell is a better option than Windows 10 Mobile with CShell on a phone-type device. It's important to stress that the idea here is that you wouldn't get a different experience if you went with Windows 10 Mobile instead of full Windows 10. The biggest thing you'd be missing out on are Win32 apps.

But maybe I'm just crazy, and Win32 should be part of Microsoft's mobile vision. What's your take?