Analyst declares WP7 launch successful, sees trouble for Android

Analyst Charles Wolf of Needham and Co., is calling the launch of Windows Phone 7 a success. Wolf bases his analysis not on current numbers, but on Microsoft’s commitment to marketing Windows Phone 7. The report further states that if Microsoft continues to grow market share, Google’s Android platform could be the big loser. Much of Android’s success is due to Verizon’s Droid line of phones, which in turn can be attributed to the lack of a Verizon iPhone. A potential iPhone launch on Verizon, coupled with Microsoft’s commitment to CDMA support, could leave Google the odd man out.

Source: Needham and Co.; via: Computer World, Apple Insider

Tim Ferrill
  • Dear Charles Wolf, Keep dreaming. Sincerely,
    Rest of the world.
  • zepfloyd's previous witty remarks... Dear Verizon, Thanks for making us #1. Sincerely, RIM October 2009
    Dear Facebook, Keep dreaming. Sincerely, MySpace
    Dear WalMart, pssst... Sincerely, KMart
  • Once a couple of decent WP7 phones launches on Verizon and also for Sprint, I think Android market share will tank big time at least in the US. I wouldn't be surprised if WP7 sales matches Androids at Verizon. People are just not attached to Android unlike Apple's jesus phone. I'm anxious to see what other CDMA models are in the pipeline. Only one model for Verizon doesn't seem right.
  • IOS, android, and Rim need to watch out. WP7 is serious business. The OS is smooth, netflix, microsoft in charge of initiating updates, zune, games, and the market is growing rapidly. But its all about the OS all the rest are very similiar in execution, WP7 is the only different one.
  • "keep dreaming" thats what apple fanbois said when android launched. wp7 has already converted my other 5 family android lines as soon as they come to sprint..
  • Honestly wp7 has soooo much potential and if they had a phone on VZW I would be typing this message from it. If they continue the rapid development and fill in the blanks come jan-march I will have one. And iphone on VZW is a huge problem for Android
  • Microsoft will continue to grow MINDSHARE with their splash of commercials on TV. Its over hey google, have fun trying to fight XBOX LIVE, hahahahah if they dont put hundreds of millions into advertising android, they are finished.
  • It might take some time but MS is in it for the long haul that's for sure. It'll be nice to see just where we're at a year from now in Dec 2011 after MS has pushed out a number of OS updates to phones.
  • From the Computer World article, which includes some additional quotes and paraphrasing of the analyst's report:
    "Nonetheless, Wolf argued that Microsoft will use its planned $500 million WP7 marketing budget to 'buy the support of the leading smartphone manufacturers.' And he said that if WP7 is enjoys strong, long-term success, there will be fallout for the Android operating system more than any other smartphone platform. 'With its growing brand equity, the iPhone could end up as the last man standing,' Wolf added. Wolf brings many factors to bear in his analysis of the smartphone platform wars, including the fact that Android and WP7 both work with devices from a variety of manufacturers, such as HTC, Samsung, LG, Motorola and Sony Ericsson, while Apple alone manufactures the iPhone -- a model that Research In Motion has followed with the BlackBerry. Wolf said that if WP7 is ultimately successful in coming months, 'it's difficult not to conclude that the Android platform will be impacted more than any other operating system because of the similarity of the two licensing models.'" As far as licensing is concerned, how similar are WP7 and Android and what advantages does WP7 offer manufacturers(besides the marketing budget that Needle says Msoft will use to woo manufacturers)? Anyways, I think WP7 hits a sweet spot between iPhone and Android so I agree that Android has the most to lost once manufacturers and carriers shift resources from Android/to WP7.
  • Interesting...
    Wolf's research first appeared in AppleInsider and basically concluded that any forthcoming compition between WP7 and Android would primarily benefit Apple (assuming Apple comes out with a CDMA version of the iPhone on Verizon, which is a good bet at this point.)
    Tim Ferrill's post above basically cherry picks both AppleInsider's original reporting and Compuerworld's report on the report to put a positive spin on WP7's launch and in the process doesn't get the context right.
    Until Microsoft gives us some hard data which they will do eventually (and now that the app market analytics are finally available, we might be able to derive for ourselves), about the best that can be said for WP7's launch is what's said about aircraft landings: any one that you can walk away from is a success.
  • The MS fanboys are out in full force! The most likely scenario is that WP7 will eat into iPhone, RIM, and Android market share fairly evenly. Or that WP7 won't sell for whatever reason. I really doubt that Android will be the only one to suffer. They are completely different phones that fill completely different need. If anything, Apple has the most to lose because WP7 is more "iphone-like" than any Android phone out there. It's pretty laughable that future sales performance is being directly correlated to marketing campaign. Sure, MS's marketing campaign is pretty aggressive, but that only gets the word out. It's still up to the consumer to decide if it fits their needs. And it's not like there's no comparable marketing for Android or Apple. If anything, I see about twice as many Droid commercials as Apple or WP7. So by that definition, Droid should continue to outpace both.
  • Did he forget that there is more to the world than the US? Verizon support is not going to cause a world wide smartphone shift. While I agree it's best to get as many options as possible out, and I'd love to see WP7 flourish (thinking about it for my next phone) this seems rather hopeful. Besides, I see more HTC Evo 4G and Samsung Galaxy S, and even blackberry torch commercials than WP7.
  • Congrats. Hope it will rock the world. All the best.Thanks a lot for this kind information. Zetaclear
  • We'll see! I'm hopeful and do agree... just like elections, the ones to be swayed to explore better alternatives are the independents. Though they would welcome iPhone converts, the real competition is in the Android market. Though I bought my kid brother a 3GS a while back and he wants a WP7 phone thanks to XBox Live. I just replaced my moms flip 1" screen phone for a WP7 phone and in a day she's learned how to send intelligible text messages, send email and post facebook updates! Things she doesn't make time to do on a computer the phone allows her to quickly do! My kid sister's phone is next. :) I'm just monitoring her present usage before adding to the family plan. LOL