Gartner predicting prosperity for WP7 by 2015

We love analysts and predictions, especially when they paint Windows Phone 7 in particularly good light, and Gartner (a leading worldwide technology research and advisory company) has done just that with their latest prediction.

Having a gander at the chart above, we can see the accumulative market total topping 1 billion by 2015 and Microsoft has been predicted to achieve 19.5% market share (compared to the 4.2 they currently hold) - Not bad for a platform that is continuously said to be "failing". Gartner revised its forecast of market share for WP7 taking into account the Nokia partnership (opens in new tab), which is said to push the platform into mid-tier of its portfolio by the end of next year.

On a general note, "by 2015, 67 percent of all open OS devices will have an average selling price of $300 or below, proving that smartphones have been finally truly democratized," said Roberta Cozza, principal analyst at Gartner. We have already covered other predictions that WP7 will overtake RIM from Ovum, so what Gartner has posted seems in-line.

What do you think of these predictions, and what is forecasted for WP7?

Source: Gartner (opens in new tab), via: WMPU (opens in new tab)

Rich Edmonds
Senior Editor, PC Build

Rich Edmonds was formerly a Senior Editor of PC hardware at Windows Central, covering everything related to PC components and NAS. He's been involved in technology for more than a decade and knows a thing or two about the magic inside a PC chassis. You can follow him on Twitter at @RichEdmonds.

  • I hope this holds true, not just from a competition standpoint, but because I think the OS truly should do well. While the start has been rocky in some regards, it will be interesting to see where WP7 is 4 years from now once the kinks are worked out (hopefully) and the OS has continued to evolve. As long as it evolves faster than the competitors since they won't be sitting around doing nothing between now and then either, I think this could happen...
  • This is the 3rd analyst to predict MS passing RIM and then at some point passing Apple. Don't forget IDC said the same after Ovum did.The fact is once MS gets mango out and we get the 2nd batch of phones with Nokia kicking it's development push at well, the skies the limit really. Just need solid marketing to get the word out there about Windows Phone.MS pushing full skydrive support and other enterprise level support for WP7 and on a low cost or free package will make it harder and harder for business to stick with RIM and if they keep losing the business market RIM is the next Palm in 2 years.
  • These same analysts were probably predicting that the iphone would still be number 1 in 2011, how close is that to the truth? Seems their opinions are based on a 100% conversion rate of former Nokia Symbian users to WP7 and that is obviously not a given. They also seem to think that apple will just sit back and watch yet another competitor pass them and that is ridiculous. The facts are MS is slow to innovate, google and apple are not, consumers are still flocking to those operating system instead of WP7, so overall their conclusions appear flawed to me.
  • Not at all. According to this chart, Nokia+WP7 will have 25% market share in 2011, 15% in 2012, and 20% total by 2015. That does not sound like a direct conversion at all. Also note the market (number of phones sold) is constantly increasing
  • + Mango update+ Nokia market share, especially in Europe+ Nokia's expertise in hardware+ Ovi Map+ Zune + Office+ Live Box+ Global ecosystem with Windows 7 or 8 present on 80% of laptop computer= great chance of success indeed.But I see some great weaknesses: - Bing- Bing Maps- Lack of openess- Lack of flexibiltyThe last 2 points make that Android will always be better in my opinion. Exept if MS agree to open more this f... locked down OS.
  • "The last 2 points make that Android will always be better in my opinion. Exept if MS agree to open more this f... locked down OS."I take it you aren't part of the roughly 85% of Android users who agree that the platform is too fragmented.Choice is good, but you know what they say about too much of a good thing.
  • Hey Gartner. Did you make up your mind, finally? Because in the beginning you stated otherwise...
  • Is Nokia still relevant? HTC just surpassed them in market capitalization. HTC is bullish on WP7 but I'm certain they realize that meteoric rise is thanks to Android.Oh and predictions 4 years into the future? Heh... What were IDC and the rest saying in 2007?
  • This doesn't really matter any way. If you believe the rumors that Microsoft is going to buy Blackberry. If that happens they will pass themselves, in sales