WP7 to overtake Android by 2015?

Pyramid Research's Senior Analyst and Practice Leader for Mobile Devices, Stela Bokun, has compiled the firm's latest Smartphone Forecast, which reveals some interesting predictions.  The percentage of smartphones sold to end users is expected to rise from 27% of the cell phone market in 2011 (1.46 billion devices) twice that at 53% in 2015.  The growth is attributed to high demand of cheap Android smartphones in developing parts of the world, like Africa and the Middle East, and parts of Western Europe, Asia and North America.

Despite the fact that Android will be the mobile OS at the center of surge, Bokun reports that Windows Phone will actually continue to gain marketshare, until it finally replaces Android at the top in 2015.  You read that correctly.  She asserts that by 2015 Windows Phone will be the #1-selling mobile OS in the world.  While the exact reasoning is not clear, it's a safe assumption that the MS/Nokia deal and Nokia's push to lower pricing on WP7 devices will play a key role.  We've already seen WP7 catch up to the struggling WebOS and expectations that it will overtake Blackberry, though the latter forecast had WP7 at 17.2% to RIM's 16.5%.

Source: BGR

  • I would like for these "Windows Phone 7 will overtake so and so by whenever" discussions to stop.
  • Agreed! I love my WP7 device, but let's not get too ahead of ourselves. The WP7 team needs to try and figure out how to send out updates consistently before looking at taking over the world!
  • You do realize this is a market projection done by an independent research firm, and not speculation done by Microsoft? Pretty sure the WP7 team is focused on trying to get the forthcoming developer updates and mango ready rather than wasting their time with market projections. This type of info us meant for market analysts and investors.
  • Besides all the chatter, and despite that I had to wait longer than most with my Surround, I think the update process works very well. Considering the complexity of multiple OEM's, devices and carriers I would even say Microsoft do/did it better than any other platform.Device specific issues are a problem the OEM's need to deal with. Microsoft can help where possible, but the OEM's own the parts list and configuration for each device, and they need to do the legwork. Obviously, based on some devices having no issues at all, that's a reasonable expectation.
  • Agreed about it being a projection by an independent firm. It'll be interesting to see what their reasons were (apart from the Nokia deal).
  • Although I generally blow off projections by the experts, I don't mind seeing WP get good press. It might negate this week's report of the latest so-called dismal sales figures.
  • I agree. I personally think the poor sales figures are due to a concerted effort on the part of some carriers to push android and ios first. I called two different Verizon wireless stores here in the Dallas area the other day about the rumored Trophy release on the 12th(http://www.cnet.com/8301-17918_1-20059924-85.html?tag=mncol;1n), and they acted like there was no such phone but were more than happy to try to sell me an android device or iphone. Similarly, when I took my wife to a t-mobile store so she could go hands on with wp7, all the salesperson could do was blather on and on about why we shouldn't even bother looking at wp7 and should just go with android.
  • what did the people at tmobile say?
  • The typical hater script, no apps, no support, bad UI, outdated hardware,etc. I'm an IT guy so I just nod and watch their lips move.
  • What the salesman should be pointing out is the one great feature WP7 has that iOS and Andriod does not have are Live Tiles.
  • "The typical hater script, no apps, no support, bad UI, outdated hardware,etc. I'm an IT guy so I just nod and watch their lips move."I sell phones, and I had an IT guy pull this routine on me. After I talked to him about the different options he explained that he was an "IT guy" and stuff to the effect that he knew a lot more than me etc etc. He turned to leave and pulled out his iPhone to take a call...I ran out of the department to keep from laughing in his face.As far as this prediction, I agree provided Microsoft and manufacturers keep delivering. People seem to forget that WP7 does bring value to the table that you can't get on the iPhone or Android phones, namely hardware selection and stability respectively.
  • Sorry, I didn't mean to sound arrogant. It's just a little frustrating when a salesman is trying to sell me something they don't even understand. Not all IT guys understand hardware. There are those that specialize in software and those that specialize in hardware. Being a gamer at heart, I'm a hardware nut. What Apple has done with the iphone/ipad/ipod line of products has been amazing at a consumer level, but they won't be able to keep pumping out hardware with minimalist updates in the near future. Microsoft put everyone on notice back at CES when they announced partnerships with all the major players in the SOC arena. It might just be my nerd fantasy, but I can see a wp product running a windows 8 webtop environment much like the atrix in the near future. Hopefully without the proprietary laptop dock.
  • Where do I sign up to become one of these "analysts" is what I want to know. Wonder how much they were paid?
  • I can't see that happening anytime soon but I wouldn't mind having a popular os.
  • This is simply cause people have been hypnotized by iPhone's shiny n glossy icons, I personally see WP7's performance beating iPhone with a clear mark, plus Mango beats it in browser war, Mango will kill the competetion, from all aspects...This forecast is wrong, as WP7 will overtake sooner than predicted...people just need to be dehypnotized from iPhone n Android viruses...douchebag iPhoneies !!
  • There are two implicit assumptions made in the for cast:1. That a large majority of current Nokia handset owners will choose upgrade to a Nokia WP7 device.2. That Nokia will be able to maintain its current market share.The first assumption ignores the fact that any paradigm change forced on customers often causes them to consider alternatives that they might not otherwise considered. It's very possible that many will simply jump ship.As for the second, with Apple poised to take the lead from Nokia and with thousands of layoffs and the COB leaving, for the near term Nokia looks to be a company that will continue to lose market share.Of course, making long term projections like this is highly dubious. Just like WPCentral's proclivity to post stuff like this. Apparently the more dubious the better.