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Report claims UK Windows Phone user base will be above BlackBerry by end of 2014

windows phone blackberry

A new report from the research firm eMarketer is predicting that the total user base for Microsoft's Windows Phone devices in the UK will go above that of BlackBerry's by the end of 2014.

The report says that at the end of 2013, BlackBerry had 3.6 million UK device owners users, while there was a combined total of 1.9 million UK users for Windows Phone and the now discontinued Windows Mobile devices. However, eMarketer sees the end of 2014 with a different result, with 2.7 million UK smartphone owners using Microsoft's OS versus just 2.4 million on BlackBerry's.

The same report says that Windows Phone will claim a 7.5 percent share of the total UK installed base of smartphones by the end of 2014, and eMarketer sees that number going up to 9 percent, and a total of 3.5 million users, by the end of 2015.

What do you think of these predictions and will they be proven to be accurate or will they be above or below expectations?

Source: The Guardian

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Reader comments

Report claims UK Windows Phone user base will be above BlackBerry by end of 2014

102 Comments

Seems like WP market share seems to grow everywhere but the US and China. I wonder what's working so well in Europe but failing in the US. Maybe Nokia brand loyalty in Europe?

That's exactly it. The Nokia brand is what's selling WP in Europe. It's the reason WP is selling at all. Microsoft had horrible support in Europe to go along with the terrible image they still have from days of yore. If the phones carried a Microsoft logo they wouldn't be selling that well... Just like they weren't before Nokia came along.

Sir William, not so much in the UK. The US has a peculiar bias toward Apple. (Probably not unusual as its home turf I suppose). Possibly a status thing in the US?

Its the US that is at odds with the rest of the world, where price sensitiivty normally means the majority is Android, then the rest will be between Windows and iPhone. If WP is 10%, and Apple 10->20% and the left overs outside of that mostly Android.

Most people, even non nerds (like us) know Blackberry is dead, which is sad. I looked at BB devices today - its a mess. The older style BB OS devices, multiday battery is a dead end (even though I prefer them to the 10 device I had) The 10 devices battery life is just terrible. Game over.

Your carriers are probably as much to blame. The US commerce style also doesn't help.

Rocky 1, 2 3, 4 , 5!   Its US firms just want refry and resell everything until the company burns bright then fails. Nothing seems long term. Oh well.

Because of carrier exclusives. You can get phones on any network or even pay for the phone itself and use your own sim in europe. 

Living in the UK most people I know now buy their phones outright and get a sim only contract. Getting a phone from a carrier usually means it costs significantly more and your are tied in. Sim only is fantastic for instance I am on a £7 a month rolling contract no minimum term and for that I get 150 minutes, unlimited texts, 500MB data which is plenty for me. There is a £5 one which is the same with 100mb of data or £10 for a gig too, just too cheap to pass up compared to the other route of paying £30-40 a month for 2 years to get a phone.

European phones aren't subsidized. The low priced Nokias make sense. A quality built phone with an OS that runs well on low end hardware and is cheap. Apple is not an alternative because of the price and most low end android phones are cheaply built and don't run well on that hardware.

Brand loyalty is one. Followed by trends (people who just follow the bandwagon). And third, people who just follow what their friends or family have bought.

Adding 800,000 new WP users in the UK  in a single year is great news (went from 1.9M users in 2013 to 2.7M users in 2014). And the forecast of 9% market share for WP through 2015 is a very positive outlook.

Good momentum behind Windows Phone in the UK.

Yup, Ive seen girls with Lumia 630s. Those adverts witht the girl and it being 99 quid, and it being bright green really helped! :)

People look at me odd when I say its genuinely better than an iPhone.
Some iPhone users are stuck in their ways.

One detate I had recently, bloke says he likes how his iPhone home screen is with folders.

I show him folders in 8.1.1 and he is like "oh" (didnt care) its just emotional attachment. Which is fine, but trying to understand humans is hard :)

MS can afford market share creep just like they're doing with Bing. It's not like Microsoft is running out of money. And the more Android devices people buy the more money MS has to spend on advancing Windows Phone thanks to all the patent royalties associated with Android.

Microsoft doesn't need to take over the market overnight to succeed. As long as sales/share/support is moving in the right direction I am happy. The Blackberry situation looks completely grim by comparison.

Yeah I agree, but keeping money is great..lol people eventually will see the light and get really tired of using the same OS for years and will seek after Windowsphone.

I agree. I also think once they get close to the 9-10% range (if they can manage it), things could really gain momentum as far as developer support and more people actually giving them a second thought.

The predictive stats in the article apart; I believe this was bound to happen not because WP is growing but rather because blackberry is slipping into the abyss.

Funny fact is also that iPhone is sinking faster compared to Android than BB compared to WP. And WP is closing iPhone naturally. Android is gone already but Apple's future is much more interesting.

Although you are comparing two completely different lines of products: Apple only sells high end devices, MS, and Android which is therefore the real competitor, from low end to the high one segment. It is like saying that Seiko sells more watches than Vacheron Constantin...

Are these the same guys that said Windows phone would pass IOS, to only have reports a few months after showing IOS growth and WP shrinkage?

I remember Gartner saying that WP would be in high double digit by now a few years ago. All these reports are predicated on assumptions - that's the small print you have to read to see the whole picture.

WP is in double digits in sales market share in the big 5 eu countries. User base share as in the report in this article is a different thing

It is a victory because user base is what developers look at when deciding which platforms to support, not what is usually referred to as market share

If the forecast is right and WP adds almost 1M new users in the UK in a year that is certainly a victory. The trajectory for BB and WP seem to be 180 degree opposite.

It's a 1020. You can tell from the Nokia logo being in the center and the shape and placement of the speaker at the very top.

These predictions are basically guesses, where can I sign up to be a professional guesser like these "analysts"?

It is 3rd in sales market share. This is talking about user base (ie how many people own one at the moment, rather than how many people have bought one in the last quarter)

I am going to buy Nokia 730/830 or Blackberry z10 next month. Havent decided yet. Who knows, how long Blackberry update their devices? 

Get the 830. The 820 was/is awesome. 830 should be even better.  I would be very wary of Blackberry at this point.

Well with all the things happening with BB and the bad news, it's not a surprise. BB has lost a lot of its customers. That's a good thing for WP but that those not mean that they can relax. One thing is getting a customer, another thing is keeping them. And WP is on the right way with all the updates and new things for the users.

Have definitely seen more users recently here in Ireland, probably the same for the UK. Still need more in terms of marketing take Carphone Warehouse (who actually were very good in at least offering Windows phone as an option) they have Lumia phone segmented of in a 'best of the rest' display in less prominent position in store to Samsung or iPhone. Could do better!

Shows how pathetic Microsoft have been under this new guy. There is a very receptive market in the UK and its being ignored. I would have got the Icon had it been released here, I would have got the 930 but my network didn't stock it because of MS's messing about with the release date. I would have got a HTC One M8 for Windows if that hadn't been a pathetic US exclusive. Failure to exploit a willing market and it only looks like continuing as there are no, none, zero high end WP devices in the pipeline at the moment. I got a One on Android today, it'll do until someone at Microsoft wakes up and releases a proper phone here.

Devices win you market share, not apps and not bright colours.

So its about device refresh in business not consumer, so this is positive you really cant compete with wp in terms of a business device from management of devices and integration. Apple and android don't figure very well in enterprise wp is exceptional

It's been a four year turn-around from being very, very consumer facing with "Windows Phone 7 Series" to now targeting who they should've been targeting from the beginning which is their enterprise customers. Only recently they added personal VPN.. Kinda turning back to Windows Mobile!

Fair comment but look at enterprise and look at great ui and look at device management taken a little time for sure but our competitors could not break that market and don't forget device security and remote management neither android or apple can or able to achieve it. Need I say about heartblead ssl. WP is on track its been a long reboot but the tail tail sign is seeing more and more people with the device in their hand and for me during my commute I am seeing it so much more. So while predictions are just that can be wrong can be right it is an opinion the reality is how many people start to adopt. This is great times for WP and universal apps will help thus along with os costs removed for devices under 9" and the new approach to hardware requirements. Look for great new devices coming soon and an ecosystem that quite frankly is better than the competition. We have good times ahead

I truly want to see windows phones thrive. It's very hard to pick up steam when providers demand exclusivity. Windows o.s. needs to cover the field. England is slowly picking up steam but there's a long way to go. Push hard, Microsoft.

Ms should bundle lumias with windows 8 laptops and desktops, people will get it then, how great is it to have those things working together

The latter half of the year will be busy for all ecosystems: Blackberry passport, iphone 6, assorted androids like the note 4 - wp will hopefully do well in the low and mid range: Hope there's a flagship lumia, though WP does have a new, proper flagship, in the HTC m8. Would love to see a new lumia flagship though ;)

Be interesting to see carrier numbers, the way O2 market windows phone in store has to rank as the best around.  Good to see it growing but MS need to focus on continual growth in Europe and bring us more choice in phones

I think its now seen as a cheap good first smartphone option for many, but I also see this as a bad thing as there isn't any higher market options in my opinion

Very true. This is why Ms needs to get more oems on board, so that there is a wider choice of devices. If the htc one wp was available plus an xperia z2 wp version plus a high end Samsung wp, then it would really start to take off. At the moment if you want a high end phone bit you don't like the 930, what choice do you have?
Its good that the hardware restrictions have loosened so now manufacturers can basically recycle their android designs and put wp on it. Hopefully that will encourage them to release more handsets like the htc one w8 globally.

And there are no midrange newer devices. All we have is the 530 and the 630, both very similar in design and price, (£80-100/$100-150) and the 930 and 1520, both over £350/$500. What if I want a 1gb RAM phone which isn't really expensive and that isn't a huge phablet? I'll get an Android phone that's what. Where is there a 730 or 830?

At least windows phone was optimized for dogs, blackberry was optimized for the little paws and tongues of *ugh* cats.

They were and still are, you will be surprised some of the things you could do. Yes .Net compact framework awesome, but we had to work hard to put a nice interface in win forms

Wow. Such predictions...
This is like saying "we believe this ship will be in the bottom of the ocean by tomorrow" while the Titanic sinks.

The iPhone drop is understandable given how old the 5s and 5c are at this point.  MS would love to get the same sales numbers with the 1020 that the year old iPhones still get.  Everyone knows they will sell an insane amount of iPhone 6's when they come out.

The fact that BB still beats WP in the UK in terms of user base is hilarious.  BB has been on life support for ages now and getting worse by the day,  WP should have exceeded BB long ago IMO. 

Was listening to Windows Weekly yesterday and Leo commented something along the lines that he thought WP was done.  The response from the co-hosts wasn't exactly a spirited defense and vote of confidence IMO.

     While I am a Windows phone user I would like to see Blackberry make it; even if it only gets up to 2 or 3%. The two countries that really KILL Windows phone market share are China and Japan. If you take away Japan and the US from Apple they would have a pitifull market share too. And the fact of the matter at one time they dominated the smartphone market. Android is the OS that has changed the game. Not a Google fan; but say what you want, what they did is amazing. Having 80%+ of the market does not leave much for anyone else to grab on to.

    Even now my two tablets are Android (just in case); but my three phones are all Windows. Glad to see HTC come out with the M8 for windows. If Microsoft does not come thru with the rumored 830 at least I have another phone I would be happy with. (My everyday phone is a 820)

Bloody hell WP. How many Blackberry devices do you see in shops these days? And there are always plenty on Nokias. It explains why I never see anyone else with a WP phone.

Starting to see more and more people using WPs here in Indonesia. Hope to see more.
But I dont think WP will leap over BB ( old devices, not the new BB10 ones) let alone Android. Even the expensive iPhone are seen more. Why ?

I think Microsoft ( and Nokia ) are too late and too scare to show off. I dont see enough effort to market WP devices here. Nokia used to be the #1 Phone here. Why don't work on that?

Come on Microsoft. We need your efforts.

Cameron (our Prime minister for Americans who may not know) was pictured with a Blackberry this week saying he was always in touch because of it. So half the country went out and sold their blackberries which I think should put Windows Phone higher in a day or so!

Not bad. It's good to see the figures going up after recent reports showing the worldwide figures going in the wrong direction. Good old Blighty! Still very slow though & the fact that it's taken this long to catch a company which has been dead on its feet for some time ain't great. Worth noting that this refers to installed user base though & not sales. I'm guessing that actual sales overtook Blackberry a long time ago

I see more and more lumia in teens hands in Italy. That is the market to target. Teens wants apps like their friends and wants coolness to show off. Then most important thing is keeping them as users: new devices, updates and so on.

Well I can pretty much see that happening! I work for a multinational German company that is 100,000+ employees string worldwide. Out if which almost 20,000 users (mostly management) have company phones (BlackBerry at the moment). In July this year the company announced its decision to phase out BlackBerry and switch off all BlackBerry servers by December 2014. We will all switch to Windows Phone (yippie!) with Nokia Hardware (purely for brand loyalty and quality reasons). I also know two other friends who are working for MNC's that are following suit by chucking out BlackBerry. This could very well be a reality and in my opinion the 'analysts' are right on track in this article! - Sent from my Nokia Lumia 1020 Windows Phone

If Microsoft needs the all world, it has got to show that it has what other people are having, clean ui, better or more apps and os perfection other wise windows phone still lacks alot of apps and too tiny to be missing features.