Analyst: WP7 to beat Android by 2013, not 2015

Not so long ago we wrote up how an analyst predicted the Windows Phone platform to overtake Android by 2015 (opens in new tab) as the number one smartphone operating system. Now that same analyst, Pyramid Research's Senior Analyst and Practice Leader for Mobile Devices, Stela Bokun, has stated that her findings were misinterpreted and the platform is actually set to take the market by storm in 2013. If that's not wishful thinking then it's an incredible prediction.

But is it far-fetched? A fast exploding Windows Phone might not be such a crazy idea in two years time. We're just behind RIM, iOS is next and then Symbian. RIM is losing marketshare as it is, iOS is failing to keep up with Android and Google's OS is a huge fragmented beast. This is -- of course -- dependant on Microsoft and how they approach their consumer base from here on out, not to mention the Nokia partnership (opens in new tab).

Source: Pyramid Research (opens in new tab), via: BGR (opens in new tab); Thanks, Philipp, for the heads up

Rich Edmonds
Senior Editor, PC Build

Rich Edmonds is Senior Editor of PC hardware at Windows Central, covering everything related to PC components and NAS. He's been involved in technology for more than a decade and knows a thing or two about the magic inside a PC chassis. You can follow him over on Twitter at @RichEdmonds.

  • i think they changed it bc of skype
  • this is the kind of dreams boxers have when they lay on the mat
  • I wonder what's driving the surge in 2011. Mango and Nokia won't be on the scene until the end of the year, and the big question is how big the rollout of each will be.
  • The surge is 2012, when Asia finally can save someone's number under their name. Ridiculous. Who on earth prioritised copy and paste over the ability to save someone's name or sending an sms in a language the recipient will understand.
  • I am sure Android fanboys are going to laugh at this, but so did iOS fanboys when it was predicted that Android will overtake iOS.
  • Well as a non viable study. I look at my twitter and facebook page to see what people are using to check in. Pretty much everyone is using mobile devices. About two months ago, I'd say it was 55% android, 35% iPhone, 9% BlackBerry, and 1% other. Recently it's more like 85% Android, 10% iPhone, 4% BlackBerry, 1% WP7!. I was excited to see other people use it. It's a low number, but it's a start.Android is really tearing up the charts, I don't see WP7 passing it anytime soon. BlackBerry by 2013 maybe, but not iPhone or Android phones.
  • I believe it. Tried Android, it was fine, I like the widgets/customization, but hated having my phone plugged into a wall charger all day long.My Arrive WORKS. All day usage, all day battery, no recharging. And it's a fun OS. I like how the tiles "squoosh" on the home screen if you swipe down when you are at the top, I like the silky smooth flow of moving within screens, and I've liked the metro UI design since I picked up my 120gb Zune four years ago.As MS addresses some basic shortcomings more and more people are going to fall in love with this OS.
  • you shall see in the above link, TryllZ comment was posted before this new prediction came out...I think the forecasters read my comments before posting this..LOL..!!
  • I went back and read Stela Bokun's post to see if anything fundamental had changed. Nope.Her basic assumption is that Nokia will produce a line of low cost WP7 phones, significantly undercutting to competition. O.K., everyone that paid full price for their WP7 phones, or any phone they recently purchased, raise their hands. Anyone? What value is a low price smartphone where phones are heavily subsidized and often free to entice customers into new or extended contracts? WP7 phones are often sold "free" in my local market.Now to be fair Stela Bokun's forte is European markets, where liberal unlocking rules, a less splintered spectrum, and less dependence on carriers for phones equates to a competitive handset market. It should also be noted that Nokia has a history of success in the European market, while it's had virtual none in the U.S. when it comes to smart phones. Stela also assumes that Nokia will be the same company down the road that it is today in terms of capabilities. Layoffs, especially among the technical staff, outsourcing, and declining market share which appears to be accelerating, and questions concerning customer loyalty in the face of a major OS paradigm change would suggest otherwise.It's bad when someone make numerical projects on assumptions and hunches that can't be quantified and Stela has yet to justify her predictions with concrete data, though she claims the data exists. Sorta sound like the real WP7 sales figures, doesn't it? (P.S. Pyramid Research for which Stela works is a for-profit marketing research and consulting firm that has had financial ties with Microsoft in the past. It's important to remember that their primary customers are the very corporations they report on.) One further comment about the statement: "We're just behind RIM, iOS is next and then Symbian." Richard, do you work for Microsoft as the statement suggests? Is it a race anyway? Does WP7 satisfaction really depend on who's number one? Perhaps that would explain why I see a post like this.
  • Durh, depends on the market. For example here I bought an HD7 for around USD$300 without any contract or carrier restriction, and pay around USD$9 per month for a 100MB data plan + 1,400 minutes voice + cap on extra data at 30 something USD if I treat it as unlimited. But for subsidised phones the monthly rate is much higher.In places like China there is no trust, you will end up buying a phone outright and paying a monthly plan. And India is a low cost market due to economic conditions.So low cost phones will create a massive surge because that's where the demand is (just Microsoft doesn't know it, and also they don't know that there are many languages in the world).