Given the absolutely astronomical hype of GTA 6, the headline here might read as crazy. Madness, INSANITY! ... But it's only crazy if you're living within a particularly specific social media bubble, in my humble opinion.
Last week, buddy o' mine Tom Warren made waves by mentioning nerves at Xbox HQ over the potential sales viability of Grand Theft Auto 6 on Xbox Series X|S. It led to Xbox CSO Matthew Ball coming in to deny the rumors, stating that GTA 6 is "creating records" for Xbox preorders.
Tom, we are very happy with GTA VI pre-orders. The title is breaking records for XBOX, we expect even more records will be broken throughout the fall, and our internal analysis shows our share of pre-orders to be matching our share of the console market.September 24, 2026
Even if that's true, GTA 6 presents something of a headache for Xbox. Thanks to an astronomical marketing deal with PlayStation, Xbox isn't even allowed to formally mention the existence of GTA 6 on its Xbox Series X|S consoles. All of the GTA 6 marketing is flowing directly towards PlayStation 5, and there's no guarantee GTA 6 Online will feature cross-play either, much like its predecessor.
Whether it's the PlayStation's marketing deal or the simple lack of available Xbox Series X|S stock to sell through (due to the RAMpocalypse), GTA 6 is shaping up to be something of a missed opportunity for Xbox this autumn.
... But does it even matter?
Perhaps out of nowhere, an unexpected savior has emerged. A savior from our past ... a video game that may well and truly last forever.
World of Warcraft: Forever can beat GTA 6
The hype around GTA 6 has seen publishers desperately swerve to avoid the Vice City-shaped train about to plow through the games industry. I've been inundated with games to review between September and October, and there's simply no time at all to realistically play through all of them. Blood of Dawnwalker, Control Resonant, Gears: E-Day, Star Wars: Zero Company, Valor Mortis, Sinking City 2, Onimusha, Minecraft Dungeons 2 ... dozens of great indie games, and even more AA and AAA titles ... all swerving to avoid GTA 6.
Yet, there are two games from Xbox that are launching close to or even on top of GTA 6, in the form of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4, and perhaps more importantly, World of Warcraft: Forever.
MW4 hype does seem muted this year, likely in part because of GTA 6 and maybe generalized franchise fatigue, but the same absolutely cannot be said for WoW: Forever. Even as an unashamed WoW fanboy, I've been utterly stunned by the popularity of the beta, which generally requires a purchase to even access. It doesn't come out until November, yet it seems to be breaking franchise records already for Blizzard, and by extension, Xbox.
Blizzard devs have said they haven't seen the game this busy in 17 years, and my own sources within Blizzard have echoed similar. Perhaps crucially, I've been told that WoW: Forever is not cannibalizing WoW: Retail either. These are all new or long-dormant returning players, buoyed by hype from massively influential streamers like Asmongold. The servers are struggling under the load, as players new and long-dormant return in their hundreds of thousands to march upon Azeroth once again.
WoW: Forever is basically a remaster/remix of the OG WoW from 23 years ago ... and it's going to take on GTA 6 in the same launch window, which isn't yet on PC. WoW: Forever will have a near-blank runway on PC as a result of multi-platform games swerving to avoid Grand Theft Auto 6.
For Xbox's quarterly projections, it couldn't have come at a better time from a corporate perspective. Asha Sharma has promised shareholders that Xbox will return to growth this year, and that was without factoring in their thoroughly unexpected projections for WoW: Forever.
Xbox is far, far bigger now than people seem to realize
Indeed, if you're in the Xbox discourse bubble, it's potentially easy to forget that World of Warcraft: Forever will feed that bottom line. Minecraft also announced a new dimension in "The Sift," coming to the game in 2027. I can see from Windows Central's traffic that this is also going to be a huge deal for the game, but also Xbox as a business unit.
So, even if GTA 6 was a flop on Xbox (and there's no evidence to suggest it would be, really), Xbox has a variety of backup plans on the docket. Some intentional, some not-so-intentional.
This is the thing about modern Xbox. A lot of the commentary tends to focus on console — it ignores mobile, it ignores PC service games like WoWF, and other revenue streams Xbox is setting up with TV and movie licensing. There's even the Minecraft theme park coming to the UK, which will be a test bed for broader expansion across the world in the coming years. Could we eventually see "Blizzard World" set up shop next door to Minecraft World? I mean, it's not entirely outside of the realm of possibility. There's even been internal chatter about an "XboxCon" in a similar vein to BlizzCon in the future ...
Yes, GTA 6 is important for Xbox ... but there's also a component crisis. PS5 and Xbox Series X|S are not overstocked. They're selling every box they can muster even without GTA 6. Perhaps if the RAMpocalypse wasn't ongoing, GTA 6 would be more crucial than it otherwise is. But Xbox is stronger than ever off Xbox Series X|S hardware right now.
Xbox CSO Matthew Ball said GTA 6 is breaking records for Xbox regardless, but even if that wasn't true ... the Xbox operation is so, so much bigger, and has so, so much more potential beyond the traditional box these days. This is before Xbox has even announced the console versions of World of Warcraft: Forever, which you just know are undoubtedly on the way. World of Warcraft has never been on console. WoW:F as a timed console exclusive would drive more sales to Xbox Series X|S than GTA 6 with PlayStation marketing ever could, in my humble opinion.
But I digress. The point is simple. GTA 6 is only the cherry on top for the modern Xbox business; it's not the entire cake.
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