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Windows 10 Mobile stalls at 11 percent of entire Windows phone market

The latest numbers for AdDuplex reveal that the Windows 10 Mobile share of the whole Windows phone market is holding steady at 11 percent for the month of June.

Windows 10 Mobile commands 10.9 percent, which is only a 0.5% increase over last month. The Windows Phone 8.1 OS meanwhile dominates with 78.8 percent. Windows Phone 8.0 (7.4%) and Windows Phone 7.x (2.9%) come in at a distant third and fourth respectively.

It is apparent that all of those who were offered the ability to upgrade to Windows 10 Mobile already did. Although we are expecting the Lumia Icon and a few others to join the fold their impact to these overall stats will likely be minimal.

Last month's numbers showed that 75 percent of Windows 10 Mobile devices were upgrades and not new purchases.

Microsoft is not nearly as aggressive in pushing Windows 10 updates for Mobile as they were for PC partially due to more limited capability and excluding the low-end market by not offering the upgrade to phones with 512MB of RAM. It looks like Microsoft will have to rely on new device purchases if they want Windows 10 Mobile to grow. Additionally, users need to download a separate Upgrade Advisor app to get Windows 10 Mobile, as it is not a standard phone update. Windows 10 Mobile is much more an opt-in upgrade and the bar to discover that your phone is even eligible is higher than usual.

Most recent estimates put all Windows Phones at 1 to 3 percent of the entire smartphone market when compared to iOS and Android. If only 11% of that 1-3% is Windows 10 Mobile that is indeed a very small active install base.

Windows 10 Mobile by phone model

While more OEMs are releasing Windows 10 Mobile devices, it is more of a slow trickle than a tsunami. The AdDuplex numbers also demonstrate that nearly 99 percent (98.74) of all Windows 10 Mobile devices out there (native and upgrades) are Microsoft. Alcatel OneTouch is a distant second with just 0.51 percent, and HTC and BLU are not too far behind.

Ironically, this is the opposite effect of what Microsoft wants, which is for their OEM partners to step up and take over low and mid-range Windows phones. So far, that has not happened at all.

Breaking those numbers down even further by phone model and we can see the Lumia 535 is the top Windows 10 Mobile device (13.4%). The Lumia 640 (11.9%) and Lumia 550 (11.2%) coming up for the second and third spots.

The more expensive Lumia 950 is in the fifth spot with 6.1 percent of the Windows 10 Mobile space. Likewise, the Lumia 650 is number seven (4.3%), and surprisingly the Lumia 950 XL is way back in ninth place with just 3.6 percent.

Clearly, the Lumia 950 is outselling the Lumia 950 XL by a lot. AdDuplex points out that there are three times as many Lumia 550s in the wild as there are Lumia 950 XLs, which is fascinating.

Microsoft still has a lot of work in Mobile before they can even begin to turn it around. While the OS is steadily improving and will be part of the Windows 10 Anniversary Update, it will take a lot of effort and compelling hardware before users start buying devices again.

In the next few months, we should see if HP has any success with the highly-anticipated HP Elite x3 "super phone."

About AdDuplex

The numbers from AdDuplex are collected through their in-app advertising that is prevalent in over 5,000 apps in the Windows Store. That data serve as an important metric within the Windows Phone ecosystem. The full AdDuplex report for June will be posted on their blog at https://blog.adduplex.com/ on Friday (June 24).

Daniel Rubino
Executive Editor

Daniel Rubino is the Executive Editor of Windows Central, head reviewer, podcast co-host, and analyst. He has been covering Microsoft here since 2007, back when this site was called WMExperts (and later Windows Phone Central). His interests include Windows, Microsoft Surface, laptops, next-gen computing, and arguing with people on the internet.

123 Comments
  • Since Windows 10 Mobile update is officially available only through the Upgrade Advisor app, it's no wonder it's just at 11%. Average people don't know about it.
  • This is true, discovery is rather difficult. I'll make mention of that.
  • And why did MS make that decision? Let's make it more difficult for Mobile users to get the newer OS. I get why they did for PC. But not for mobile.
  • It's a good question, and I'm not sure. Perhaps because smartphones are so much more personal and people rely on it so much they would rather have it as user-choice. They clearly run into the problem, however, that there is no way to ping a user about the update even existing. Not sure how you get around giving users the option but also telling them that there is one. 8.1 just doesn't have a system like that.
  • If the carriers would block OS updates, MS could have released a small 8.1 update that would 'advertise' or provide the ability to push notifications a newer OS was available. Or bundle the Upgrade Advisor. My wife's Lumia 640 is still sitting at 8.1, even though it can upgrade to 10. She doesn't know unless I tell her.
  • They could have put the Upgrade notification in all the Microsoft apps on WP8.1 That's the easiest way to bypass carriers for updates and to tell people to upgrade!
  • Yeah, they could at least push an update patch where it enables to recieve W10M upgrade notification when it's ready or compatible. I guess that's technically possible for them since the update woudn't exactly have to change anything related on hardware level, where carriers have to review them and gets dalayed or blocked.
  • Maybe users do know it's out there.  Maybe they don't want to lose by upgrading to something that is not as good as 8.X.  Seems like that's what's happening here.  :)
  • In that case, Microsoft themselves isn't even enthusiastic with their own product. At least they're aware that it isn't good enough despite the changes, if that's the case really. Who knows, these things are likely still buried internally on MS management and trying to just avoid news that will relate to "Dead platform" yada yada. Still, giving OS notification that there is an update compatible for the device is better than just nothing at all where it only involves installing app that most people woudn't even know exist, and just additional chore to do.
  • Push a small reminder through Cortana? just a thought lol or a simple email with detailed instructions? or a text? but at this point I'm sure that most WP users are aware of w10m. If they haven't upgraded, it's mostly because they don't want to..
  • Cortana is only available in markets where WP penetration is negligible. Go figure.
  • I find it bit odd to think about that since people seems not so much in favor of aggressive Windows 10 upgrades (or at least based on news and discussions around, even beyond internet), while OS upgrades on the phone since it's so common, it's been received bit more lightly. Still, the lack of seamless and easier way to know and upgrade to W10M is a head-scratcher why they're holding back on this while on PC side they're not even afraid on more aggressive tactics (good or bad). One thing I can think of why this isn't happening is because carriers tend to block or delay updates indefinately on WP8.1, that's why I guess. If that wasn't the case, then they can release release patch where it will fetch an update notification when their device is ready for W10M upgrade, basically mimicking the app but more subtle way. Thing is, it seems MS themselves not so enthusiastic on looking for ways to push update notification for compatible WP8.1 devices. Unless they really run into issues that technically they can't make it.
  • totally agreed. Microsoft is so aggressive in upgrading PCs to windows 10 but why not on mobile?
  • They did the same thing with Windows 8.1 making it only available through the store instead of pushing it through Windows Update.
  • Yeah, seems like Microsoft doesn't really care about the W10M upgrade state of older phones...
  • They do care. There is no benefit to them in keeping 8.1 users around instead of making them w10m. I think it's consideration in not forcing people to something completely new.
  • That's a good point.
  • I get the feeling that Microsoft is not as confident about windows 10 mobile yet as much as they were with 8.1. The experience is still too inconsistent and only now is relatively bug free.
    Perhaps they will give it a bigger push once the anniversary update is out. Posted via the Windows Central App for Android
  • As an Icon owner, I can't comment on official update stability. Regarding the fast ring update from two days ago, it was entirely unstable. Locking, freezing, shutting down out of nowhere. Switching Bluetooth on and off results in a freeze that requires a soft reset to get out of. I am only praying that this "Official" release is better.
  • Shane, rock solid for my Icon on Release Preview ring, but I also am not yet on Redstone. I hope that doesn't fundamentally decrease stability.
  • The polish and the bug fixes will only come as we close in on the public release date...so dont worry abt it for now... :)
  • That actually I'm thinking about for a while, when the Anniversary Update officially being released, will the update goes straight to Redstone build or does it have to download and install TH builds first? It would be really a huge hassle and waste of bandwidth to download already old builds.
  • Considering the overall general UI experience is the same from wp7 to wp10 there's no reason to hide it. On windows 10 PC is completely different from 8 and 7 so yeah people are scared. But Mobile they should push it. Common sense.
  • I think it has to do with the fact that Microsoft themselves know Win10 for mobile isnt an OS that is ready for public/commercial release. Windows 10 for Mobile feels more like an advanced beta testing program than an OS that is meant for everyday use. My 930 runs Windows 10 more reliably than my 950 which was designed for Windows 10. Love both my devices and the OS .. but both are/were powerful flagships that should be able to run this OS butter smooth. Microsoft isnt dumb, they are fully capable of having a notification that pops up, saying and update is available...but by making it less obvious, only the ones who know about Windows 10 for mobile (who most likely know about its drawbacks), would upgrade, whereas the rest would remain on a stable OS.
  • Also, In India, windows phone users other than youth, Eg aged people dont even care about windows update. I have seen people who still use windows phone 8 and not even upgraded to 8.1
  • That's not exclusive to India. I too have seen the very same 'older' people who have a Windows Phone device. Some are still on 7.0. Some are on 8.0
  • Cause all they want is a phone to make calls, click photos and do 2-3 other things. They dont care about the features what software upgrade will provide
  • Not only the Windows 10 update is difficult to discover many apps don't come in search in store. they always need a special link. Its just disgusting. How the very common people will find those?
  • Exactly!
  • Bingo. Hopefully with updates these little gremlins will be addressed.
  • I've missed info about Upgrade Advisor and wondered when update will be available in Ukraine. And it already was here for L730(friend's phone) month or two ago.
    Interesting if they can use same principle as for desktop: Push update with Upgrade Advisor in it which will show notifications about available update(but not so aggressive as on desktop)?
  • Exactly, BUT since Windows 10 experience is not good as Windows 8.1 in most older phones maybe is not a good idea push the update to the average user.
  • Exactly, BUT since Windows 10 experience is not good as Windows 8.1 in most older phones maybe is not a good idea push the update to the average user...
  • Exactly, BUT since Windows 10 experience is not good as Windows 8.1 in most older phones maybe is not a good idea push the update to the average user...
  • Even my carrier didnt know bout this. Though they release W10 update, they never mentioined using upgrade advisor first. Posted via the Windows Central App for Android
  • Exactly, BUT since Windows 10 experience is not good as Windows 8.1 in most older phones maybe is not a good idea push the update to the average user.
  • This man this....i was a member of a group of windows phone owners on Facebook..i visited that group and most of them didn't knew that windows 10 is available.... Still cant understand the reason of making the update available through upgrade advisor app... This should change as soon as possible
  • Indeed. Somebody I know gave me a call back in May and told me that his phone wasn't update. When I told him about upgrade advisor he didn't had an idea about that. I don't remember if Microsoft send an e-mail to users to inform them about the advisor but I think they should inform them more about the update
  • I see developers will freak out with creating apps. They are pushed to create them for win10m aka UWP, but then the biggest market share is still on wp8.1, and will stay for a long time i fear. Here in spain, wp8.1 is still the biggest selling phone, you barely see wp10. Its a mess
  • I would be rocking W10 Mobile if there was a new phone on Verizon.  But for now, clinging to my aging L822.
  • Dumping Verizon was the most liberating thing I did. You should consider the alternatives. 
  • Agreed. We lasted 6mos. On Verizon before fleeing back to att. All my old wp's work again.
  • I would love to see Microsoft go the same way as they did on the pc with this one. Push it as an update automatically. A lot of people want windows 10 but don't really know how
  • My Windows 10 Mobile expreience has not been the greatest so far. I was on the insider and my phone got bricked so I rolled back to 8.1 using WDRT and then updated to the official Windows 10 Mobile update but on my 830 it is really buggy. Loads of app crashes, screen flickers to black and random reboots. I'm being patient because i considered switching to android (OnePlus 3) but i thought I would use my 830 till about April next year when Microsoft releases a flagship next timeeven though my contract finishes in october, but i'm willing to fight till the very end lol. :)
  • Don't bother switching to Android unless you truly love it. I did a few weeks ago and nearly went mad because of the parasitic battery loss and data usage intrinsic to Android. I had to switch back to my 950 for my sanity. Now I have a newfound love and respect for W10M.
  • There are thousands of Android phones, including phones with the best battery life available. You cannot make blanket statements like that. You need to be specific. Android is not cookie cutter, it varies greatly from device to device. Posted via the Windows Central App for Android
  • He can. It is the less efficient, secure and reliable os ever developed, not only in the mobile world
  • Do you have any data or proof of your claims? If you want the best battery life, you buy an Android phone. If you want the most secure device, then Android is also where you look (even Obama uses Android now!). Android also scores above iOS in reliabiltiy. http://bgr.com/2015/02/13/ios-8-vs-android-5-0-lollipop-crash-rate/ If Android really was that bad, how does it continue to outsell Windows devices 3 to 1? 
  • Your ignorance on display with your own claims Obama using Android:
    http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2016/06/goodbye-obamaberry... General Android security:
    http://www.whatmobile.net/features/under-attack-an-interview-with-a-hacker As far as proof of my original claims, I was making an anecdotal recommendation based on my experiences with Android 5.1. I was unaware the scientific testing standards were lacking when I submitted my "research" for peer review.
  • Your links prove my point. The most secure phone is an Android device with Samsung's Knox Security. I didn't say all Android's were secure, that would be a rediculous statement.
  • If you had read the articles to completion, you would see that President Obama's Android "phone" lack both a camera and voice call features. It is also only allowed to download a few select apps from an entirely separate"store". As far as your earlier question about Android outselling Windows Mobile, it's multifaceted. Carrier salespeople often discourage people from buying them claiming that they lack the apps everyone wants. My personal experience is that only Target apps and a Discover app limit my app usage on Windows while all of the rest are present, particularly the ones I use most often and for the longest time. Also, Microsoft initially shot it's own feet with WP8.1 by charging OEMs to put it on phones, unlike Android. By the time they removed the charge, Nokia already had such a dramatic and dominating lead, little outside support returned to the platform. Apple obviously enjoyed first mover advantages that allowed it to dominate without other OEMs, but Microsoft is fighting from a disadvantaged position as a result of ecosystems. Also consider that many carriers either have very limited or no W10M phones available- Verizon sells an old 735 and a very low spec LG. Sprint I'm pretty sure doesn't even have any recent Windows devices. TMo showed some promise, but AT&T is the only consistent supporter, and only with floor space. There are more reasons, but if you are educated as you seem to imply, you can find them on your own.
  • But you don't see Obama using any other platform. No other phone has been able to pass that level of testing. If security is your biggest concern, Android is the most flexible and can be locked down harder than its competitors. Carriers do not push Windows phones because the expereince is not up to par with the other platforms. Very important apps are missing and the ones it does have are lacking. Features and hardware choice has also been far behind the competitors. Their is no good reason for carriers to take the risk of recommending Windows phone. The issue is completely caused by Microsoft creating a sub par experience.
  • You know what, you're right. It is so hard to live. I can't believe I haven't fully embraced Android so I can use snapchat. What was I thinking? Oh, wait.... That's right, I actually want to accomplish something with my time. Windows devices enable that best for me. Instead of endlessly tinkering with abysmal Android settings menus, I can focus only on using my Windows device to get my work done, regardless of what that work is. In the end, your argument begs support from an incredibly divisive man using an absurdly limited device- you could easily accomplish the same of a Windows device by removing the camera and disabling voice calling features. You need to understand the people are different. Windows fans like Windows for what it can do, and how it can do things differently. Why do you troll WC if you have such strong hatred of Windows Mobile? You won't find me trolling iOS sites and reminding them that living images was a Lumia technology or that Steve jobs couldn't have been more wrong about the stylus. I have no interest in apple, so I simply don't keep up on Apple news. Stop stirring up dissention and grow up.
  • My Nexus has very few settings menus and you don't need to use them at all. Again, generalizing about a platform that has hundreds of configurations. You are very angry when I just answered someone else's generalized, baseless attacks. Posted via the Windows Central App for Android
  • True, some devices manage battery life and data bleed better than others, but consider that a large portion of Android device are of the lower price points below $300, or even $200. Those devices rarely have the extra refinement of a $700-$800 Samsung. I was using an Alcatel Onetouch Idol 3 with Lollipop-recent but not the newest version of Android. The first few days were just fine with the phone. Then data bleed and battery life started to suffer significantly- to the point that I had to charge my phone during my lunch break so it wouldn't die before I got home. My 950 generally has no less that 40% battery life when I get home. That is considerable due to the higher resolution screen and comparable battery size of the Lumia 950.
  • I love my droid. Fast fast and fast, great battery life on my g5, apps, and customization are a added bonus. When I do use my WP's I find using the internet very frustrating. Not all of the pages load, slow compared to chrome on my droid.
  • That's funny, my experience is the exact reverse. I guess we have more in common that we thought.
  • You have much experience with a G5? Posted via the Windows Central App for Android
  • Yes, unfortunatelly, Apple and Google had managed to do in mobile browsers what MS did in desktop browsers of yesteryears. Lazy developers optimize pages for Safari and mobile Chrome specifically and it breaks apart in mobile IE. One would be inclined not to repeat the same mistakes ... only goes to show that people are inherently stupid.
  • I'm completely agree with you, I have tried Android for about a month while waiting to have enough money to buy the 950, and I have to say, this OS is ****! My galaxy S4 mini can goes from 100% to 25% after 2,5 hours of watching YouTube. It even secretly uses my data with our my knowledge, event when I'm using Wi-Fi! Posted via the Windows Central App for Android
  • The GS4 Mini is a 3 year old mid range device with a heavy skin. I am not sure what you are expecting, but 2.5+ hours of streaming video isn't that bad. You cannot judge an open platform based on one old, highly modified device.
  • Had a customer with app problems so i did a total reset of it and after that all worked fine. All type og system upgrades can go wrong some times its best to start fresh. I have done this with all my WP when I went for w10m. Works whery well now since 318 update.
  • 950 is crushing the 950XL in sales because if you want the XL you have to purchase directly from MS and not everyone wants to/has the money to do that. I'd much rather have the XL but I got mine through AT&T and they only have the 950.
  • Bull. I bought my 2nd 950XL from a 3rd party via Amazon for $150 less than MS. There are plenty of choices other than MS to buy a 950XL. I even got the free dock buying from the 3rd party. I only regret that I bought my first 950XL from MS as part of the first wave of pre-orders and not waiting to save $300.
  • Yes. If you buy the unlocked 950 xl you lose visual voice mail and mobile hotspot on ATT.
  • Isn't a stall when something stays the same or doesn't move? An increase isn't a stall and the only way Windows 10 Mobile would have stalled in a report is if the last month was 10.9 and this month was 10.9, then that would be a stall, which can be taken negatively or "holding steady" which can be taken positively. Either way, an increase or change isn't a stall. Before anyone says "that's just your opinion of what stall means!", Oxford defines stall in this context as: "stop or cause to stop making progress" If there was an increase in share, making progress, Windows 10 Mobile has not stalled.
  • 0.5% is a very small increase and one of the smallest wwe have seen so far. It makes sense that if 75% of all W10M users are upgrades and we see that drop to 0.5% we are nearing the end of 8.1 to 10 updates. Stall here is not 100% accurate, but overall I think it is a safe assumption that it will hover around this number until/unless people buy more devices (and or 8.1 owners give up the ghost). So seeing it practically, this is a stall imo.
  • Any news on the 1520. That sucks. If any phone was capable of 10. What is att/ Microsoft doing.
  • Why don't they offer the update via OTA without the requirement to download an app first. It is stupid that you are required to download an app first which most people doesn't even know about.
    It is like Microsoft doesn't want as much phones as possible on windows 10.. Hope this changes with anniversary update.
  • Totally agreed. It should be offered via Windows Update and there should be a noticifcation in the phones notification centre to notify people of the option.
  • Retrenching at its best!
  • Lol!
  • Photo of Microsoft retrenching their phones: http://columbiariverkeeper.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/hanford-waste-...
  • So a whopping .2% of mobile OS marketshare...
  • Typically people only update their phone OS when they buy a new phone (or updates are pushed automatically).  Since there are really no new Win 10 Mobile phones out it only makes sense that people are not getting the new OS in droves.
  • Microsoft do not want Windows 10 Mobile to proliferate at this point of time with threshold. It is just not ready for prime-time and they know it. The main push should come with redstone 1 whereby the OS will be (or is already) much more polished after receiving inputs from existing beta users, and with the rumoured Surface phone (if it ever materialise). Otherwise with such intentional moves, MS do not want their mobile OS to flourish. If MS did want majority eligible phones (besides the story how they deliberately pushed away  50% WP8.1) to move up to W10M, they would had already done a compulsory recommended update.
  • MS do not want another reboot, there're already too many and tech world associate it with reboots already. Hence this time round they may want to make sure they know what mobile marketing is like for sure, dry run / testing water from development to dealing with customer, before showing hand. Satay(pun) said investment wasn't lost, who knows what's up his sleeves.
  • I blame this more on AT&T.  Pretty much none of the WP8 devices on ATT can be updated to 10 yet.  Advisor app just keeps saying "you are elgible but your carrier hasn't approved it yet".
  • It doesn`t even surprise me, since the OS does not updates himself from 8.1 to 10, you have to install an Upgrade advisor first and very little people actually know what the hell is that. So even if they have a phone that can receive Win 10 they are still stuck on Win 8.1 , and I knew few guys with Lumia 930 doing just that.
  • I still don't get why do some older Windows phones like 920, 925, 1020, 8X don't get update to Windows 10? I mean, their CPU MSM8960 is on the list of supported devices for the update. Also all of them have at least 1 GB of RAM and 8 GB internal storage. It just ducks. That 11% would be much higher if they have kept their promise.
  • Because insiders sent very negative feedbacks while using w10 on those devices
  • That's just the excuse they gave. Stupid excuse, made users who had contributed in good faith look like mugs.
  • Correct me if I'm wrong but the average user only gets whatever info the carrier passes on,and at&t passes on very little! As far as I know they still haven't rolled out W10! Got tired of waiting with my 830 and jumped on the Insider program,,
  • Wish AT&Tardy would release official update for my 830. Seeing the problems insiders have with it though I guess I shouldn't blame them for waiting it out.
  • I can bet on the future of windows phone
    I see down trend, it cannot capture the new Customers
  • This will change with the new batch of phones.
  • What new batch of phones?
  • Only HP has a phone coming out and it will most certainly be a flop like all its predecessors. With market share well under 1%, Microsoft won't keep it up long. They have nothing revolutionary and that is what they need if they want to have any success. They will kill Windows Mobile within the next year. Posted via the Windows Central App for Android
  • Hi.. Where to get a bb8 like that
  • Cant MS give a 'mini' version of windows 10 to 512mb devices which will give access to windows 10 store and features which are possible?
  • W10m is already as light as it can get, and they don't even dedicate enough resources to the standard development
  • W10M isn't unsalvagable, despite what people may claim. Adverts. More devices. Adverts. Sponsorship. New features. Advertise them. ​This has been the problem for WP and now W10 since Nokia went, it isn't pushed aggressively enough. MS are already throwing money at it, throw more. Get it promoted, tell people how it syncs with your desktop or laptop, tell people how Cortana can help you, tell people how awesome the hardware can be, tell people that it's worth buying in to. Break the vicious cycle of 'less customers = less developer attention' and get more customers so the OS can be taken more seriously, more apps can be built, and more customers can be attracted. Flip the cycle around. The sole advantage of such a low marketshare due to this lack of promotion; Microsoft can start to treat W10 (if they actually do) as a brand new product and push it as such.  
  • Cortana is a joke. Sorry I'm not available on your region.
  • it has been my experience that you need at least a 410 or 210/212 snapdragon for windows 10 to run decently ... all the ancient device in the 400, 500, and 600 series Lumias with older SoCs just don't run smooth enough for daily use with Win 10.  Out of my 4 devices my LG Lancet is the only one that works well with Win 10.
  • My 640 xl (1gb) runs w10 "okay" but i'm not impressed. Was wondering too if it's a bit underpowered. My 630 though, 512 mb, same soc, runs w10 really smooth, better than the 640xl ... (!)
  • My 535 (SD 200, 1 gb RAM) runs W10M buttersmooth, even on fast ring builds. Maybe I'm just lucky, maybe not. But I'm very satisfied with W10M :3
    And the same goes for my little brothers 532 (same internals).
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