AdDuplex: contrary to previous reports, Windows Phone performed well in Q4 2013

Nokia released the company's Q4 2013 financial report earlier this week, revealing some rather disappointing data. Sales of Lumia Windows Phones were estimated to be lower in Q4 2013, compared to Q3. While Nokia failed to provide hard numbers in the report itself, the company did go on record to confirm the number of sales at 8.2 million units (compared to 8.8 in Q3). Then again, even the juggernaut Samsung Mobile had a rough time this quarter, meaning this isn't a Nokia anomaly.

Today, AdDuplex, one of the largest ad service providers for Windows Phone apps, has published a blog post attempting to analyse how the platform performed through the holiday season, compared to previous quarters.

Microsoft's Joe Belfiore also took to Windows Phone's defence with the following tweet:

That statement was previously conveyed to us by Microsoft in our interview with Windows Phone Director, Greg Sullivan, this month at CES.

Calculations in the AdDuplex blog post aren't entirely based on hard data, but it's a good look at how the platform has progressed through 2013. Throwing data from the last 12 months together (comparing Windows Phone 7 against Windows Phone 8) and publishing a chart, you get the following:

What this chart conveys is how Windows Phone 8 advanced from just 19 percent of all Windows Phones (included in the samples) to over 78 percent. AdDuplex refrained from calculating Windows Phone sales numbers using accumulated data in monthly reports, but to help shed some light on the situation, a few assumptions have been thrown into the mix. Reading on, you're to assume that sales of Windows Phone 7 hardware weren't substantial during 2013 and the number of devices in use decreased by 2 percent per-month.

"We need to figure out how many Windows Phone 7 devices were in use by January 2013. This post on The Verge suggests that Nokia sold 13.3 million Lumias in 2012 and another million in 2011. By the end of 2012 Nokia had ~75% share of the Windows Phones in use. So that makes around 19 million WPs in total. A few of the phones sold were already WP8 and some were already out of use (broken/returned/etc.). So let’s say 12 million WP7 were in use by the end of 2013. Another pretty baseless assumption, but again, not essential for the issue in question."

Basing the below chart on both data and the established assumptions above, AdDuplex ended up with the results of the total number of Windows Phone 8 devices in active use:

From looking at the above chart, we're then able to calculate quarterly changes for Windows Phone 8, which can then be thrown into a pretty chart:

Conclusion? Nokia sold more Lumias in Q4 compared to Q3. Now, we'd like to reiterate that these calculations aren't using data supplied by Nokia (actual sales) and they could be off, especially when Nokia actually went on record after the Q4 report was released to confirm that 8.2 million units were sold in that quarter. AdDuplex will touch on this more in the next monthly sales report, so we'll be on the lookout for that when it's published.

Regardless, the real indicator for the health of Windows Phone is year over year (YoY) sales, which can rightly obfuscate seasonal offsets due to extraneous circumstances e.g. a new iPhone or general downturns in smartphone sales. There, the story is much different with 30 million Lumias being sold in 2013 versus just 13 million the year prior. That's a fairly sizeable increase, one that Microsoft has to be feeling content with.

Source: AdDuplex

Rich Edmonds is Senior Editor of PC hardware at Windows Central, covering everything related to PC components and NAS. He's been involved in technology for more than a decade and knows a thing or two about the magic inside a PC chassis. You can follow him over on Twitter at @RichEdmonds.

97 Comments

Bog post in second paragraph
These numbers are very possible. Nokia sold 8.2 of new phones that were shipped, and yes the numbers are down compare to last year. This data does not show sales from Nokia. But activations. How many Windows phone were purchase on eBay? How many windows phone were still sitting on the shelves from last year? This is good data. Activations are up these numbers look good.
I don't know about other countries, but in India definitely more Lumias sold in Q4 than in Q3. In almost all the major online retailers Lumia 520 is the best selling smartphone in Q4 which is not the case in Q3. Lumia 625 also started selling well in Q4 because the price is reduced from initial absurd pricing.
Agree. In fact if this data holds water. I'll preferred this over Market Shares. Because a sold phone does mean it is active. This data tells me precisely how many phone units are in use.
true... lets not trust in nokias sales numbers but trust in some adduplex network that makes up numbers from random phones.. sale numbers are incrementel - you know? you can add them together and not "estimate" around with "activations and sitting in the shelves" stuff
Makes me wonder if Nokia fudged the numbers to make the acquisition look more appealing.
That's illegal and unless they are critically stupid would have no reason to do so when their shareholders have already approved the deal. One would think that Nokia would know how many handsets they sold, their word has been good enough so far but now their numbers aren't what what people want they are being called dishonest and people are cooking up numbers. Kind of pathetic, really.
+1 our own little reality distortion field... take that Apple!
Critically stupid.. Lol
Lol, now I'm thinking of it too. Imagine a a person attached to a computer screen flashing "critically stupid" in red!
The fact that Nokia sold less doesn't mean that there were less lumia's sold.. Store have Lumia's in stock and they usually restock less after Christmas because of declining sales (and more in the upcoming months, thus q3)
^This. Plus Samsung, Huawei, and even HTC tried to clear their remaining WP stocks by drastically slashing prices to the extent that the Ativ S and 8X with better specs than mid & low tier Lumias had similar prices! So this Christmas, people might have bought those instead of similar-priced but lower-spec'd Lumias.
There are legal ways to do it. They might consider sales to retailers in Q3 as "sales". That's a classic console-wars numbers game. How many lumias did Nokia for instance sell to AT&T to beef up their warehouse inventory prior to the holidays? Microsoft also does this Windows sales. They'll count pre-sales one quarter and then defer other sales to another etc. I find the Nokia numbers 'odd' that they would drop during the holidays. Maybe not increase as much as some windows phone fans would like... but drop? That's when I start getting suspicious of esoteric accounting.
I think it'd help a huge amount if they sold a more mainstream phone with the latest specs like the 929 on all carriers and on every continent. They can't release a gigantic phone like the 1520 and expect to do all that well.
"They can't release a gigantic phone like the 1520 and expect to do all that well."
Not sure they did, really. It was one of many niche devices, like the Lumia 1020. But in speaking with them, they're expectations weren't that the NL1520 would be the breakout hit. It was just another in their range.
I guess what I mean to say is that it's not surprising to me that they didn't sell more phones than they did in the last quarter.
That's why I'm not surprised by the numbers. 8 million seems like a solid number to me, especially when you look at previous years. Obviously doesn't compare to samsung/apple but it's not too far behind what LG and Sony do. Would love to see an updated 925 get released to all major carriers. I have a 1020, but the 925 is a great phone. It's slim and comfortable to handle, has a fantastic design and camera. Throw in 1080p and the specs from the 1520 and you have a perfect phone. Maybe an aluminum unibody, but that's not a huge deal to me.
I love the look of the 925. I just wish I could have the 929's internals with the 925's exterior and a 4.3" screen. Let's just say I'm a dreamer. :P
"It was one of many niche devices, like the Lumia 1020." Niche? If it were sold on T-Mobile then I guess I would have been one of those to own a "niche" device. But as of now I'll just have to wait and see if something like the Lumia 1020 is ever released for T-Mobile customers. I can assure you that Nokia and WP would have gotten another phone sold.
The 1520 is a nichie devise. I went and looked at one today and it is bad ass. Really making me think twice.
Activations and Sales are two different things...
Activations and sales are closely intertwined. I think you meant sales and shipments are two different things... Shipments can, and often are, higher than actual sales.
Sales can be higher than shipments in a quarter if there is a lot of unsold inventory from previous quarters. It seems like from the activation data and ad data that more devices were sold to customers in Q4, but more devices were shipped to retailers in Q3 in preparation for the holiday.
Bingo. I think you've hit the nail on the head. That actually makes a lot of sense
Lots of stolen WP8s out there, I surmise. It's the only explanation!
You might be right there!
Even the thieves like the Windows Phones!
So, wait, am I correct in reading the chart where it basically says that 35 million people have a Windows Phone?
Probably higher than that is Nokia shipped 43 M Lumias in 2 years.
Yeah, but shipped is different from used. Phones could've shipped but not sold and some could've been returned. Now granted, I don't think the difference between shipped and used is 8 million but I'd just be interested to know the user base.
Does anyone,(perhaps you) have an idea of how many WP 8 users are out there? Just curious about our numbers as I see that we have been and still are and will be getting more and more support and sales. I really like it.
Wrong, 47 million, there is also Windows Phone 7, 7.5, 7.8 ;) Sadly we are still small compared to Android, but catching on
Yeah, but how many of those 43M are the same people buying multiple devices?
Doesn't matter. Same hipster bought iPhone, iPhone 2, iPhone 3, iPhone 3G, iPhone 4, iPhone 4S, iPhone 5, iPhone 5S. It still counts.
I think you have one too many iPhones. unless you include the 5C
Lol! That iPhone 2
Hipster with iphone2 is uber hipster....he so hipster he has phones that don't even exist.
At least it bust the "5 people owning a windows phone" myth. Haven't seen that in a while thankfully.
So Nokia gave incorrect figures? Or were there more than usual HTC and Samsung Windows Phone sold?
I'm thinking the latter. Which is good, we need more OEMs.
I agree with second choice. Nobody said that windows phone sold less, nokia said that lumias sold less which Q3. Maybe HTC and Samsung enhance your participation on WP.
Don't forget Huawei. I actually seen someone with a Huawei Windows Phone the other day. ;)
A device sold != a device in use.
Yes it does. I think you meant "shipped".
I'm inclined to agree that Samsung and HTC (probably Huawei too) sold a lot of WP this Christmas - those two OEMs tried to clear their WP stocks by selling at bargain prices the Ativ S and 8X. By drastically slashing prices, those two OEMs actually equalled prices of low to mid tier Lumias with their better spec'd Ativ S and 8X.
Glad windows phone is selling good, then again, it would be nice if the phones that sold best weren't the 52x range, and more higher end devices.
Well, not really. That would only prove that we are in the world where everyone can afford an expensive phone and we have no world hunger or poverty to donate to or diseases to cure by helping Melinda and Gates Foundation ;)
Well, not too bad sales figure but Nokia is to blame. I don't like Nokia's marketing strategy in Africa, I think it's dumb. Nokia launches and releases new Windows Phone somewhere in US or UAE but it takes six months to get around the world?! I have been longing for a replacement Windows Phone for my 920, but all I got here is Lumia 1020 when I still have my old N808 pureview. 1520 and 1320 are still not available even though they look too big for my liking. Almost everyone in my family now uses a 520, same in the office but I love good phones, tired of my Lumia 920(got it since Dec 2012) heating and battery discharge problems yet I can't find a worthy successor available yet!
If it makes you feel any better, even with the 1520 available it doesn't feel like there's enough progress to upgrade from the 920. I think your pain will be releived by WP8.1.
Mwc 2014 :)
Too much micro analysis about how individual quarters faired from one quarter to the next...bottom line is from last years total to this years total there was an increase.
Rather a multiplication!
The YoY sales increase has been huge!
Exactly. People want Nokia to fail. There was a small decrease and now Nokia is apparently "dying" and now "android is the only way". The desperation and greed of those people are amazing.
Seasonal effect : a new iPhone released ... This has to change :)
Surely, but they are not that strong, just a huge blind fanboy and premium userbase, we can overtake them by the masses and, with an improvement in the high-end specs, in the high end too
Plus, windows phone users aren't blind or stupid to the truth and problems of there own OS.
I don't know how it has been figured out that sales has declined in the last quarter. From the general feeling and trend in my family and friends circle, I can definitely say the sales has increased. I doubt Nokia has correct figure.
Nokia has, by law, to release accurate numbers; analysts on the other hand go by assumptions and empiric analysis.....
You doubt Nokia knows how many phones they sold?
I am not saying they released wrong figures deliberately but there could be an error. The information was not in the report rather they released information after that. There must be something wrong.
I don't think it was only Nokia that contributed to the overall activation of WP this Christmas. I know for a fact that in my country, Samsung and HTC tried to clear all their WP stocks by drastically slashing prices of the Ativ S and 8X to the extent that prices of those were similar to prices of lower-spec'd Lumias. It's quite possible people bought the higher spec'd Samsungs and HTCs rather than the lower-spec'd Lumias priced similarly.
Sorry but I'm not gulible to bite into propaganda to try and save critics. Which is what Belfiore tried to do. Here's the deal: Nokia's numbers LOWERED. Period. From 8.8 in Q3 to 8.2 in Q4. That's what happened. Period.
Now, Belfiore comes to talk about "activations" that have risen. Nokia's numbers are about sales from them. Nokia doesn't sell directly to the consumers except in some of their stores. The gross of Nokia's sales are made to retailers and carriers. If Belfiore says that WP did that well and IF it is true what AdDuplex says about sales...well, then it means one thing: The phones AREN'T SELLING. If Nokia reduces the number of phones sold, but someone comes to say that sales of WP inscreased from Q3 to Q4, then it means that the phones are remaining on the shelves and not selling unless there's a holiday and some promotions that make the phones ridiculously cheap. If the phones aren't selling, that explains how can Nokia present a decrease in sales yet somehow, there's an increase in activations. No matter how much honey or dust Microsoft tries to throw on top of this, the results aren't good. Neither by using Nokias numbers nor by using AdDuplexes info.
I prefer to trust Nokia's figures to the opinions of AdDuplex or the Belfiore-propaganda, though.
While some of what you said might be true, are you saying that the hard facts presented by Ad Duplex are opinions? They collected this raw data, not "well, I think this happened"
Well, "numbers" would be more correct. Except AdDuplex is not really a credentialized statistics agency. They collect some usage data but it's very limited information that they have access to. It's based on app ads and require that the developers use AdDuplex and that the users use the apps by them supported.
So, because of that, I used "opinions". Because statistics are also very easily forged, I opted for the term "opinions" to set a clear difference between the provenience of their numbers and Nokias.
AND between your troll-like speculations and Belfiore's numbers, I'd take Belfiore's any day!
Your comment lacks much base, first off, your referring to what NOKIA sold, nokia only sells LUMIAS, there ARE other companies selling WP's, more than likely, this article is including WP8 as a whole, not just nokia's lumia, also, if the amount of activations goes up.. guess what? THE PHONE WAS BOUGHT. "No matter how much honey or dust Microsoft tries to throw on top of this, the results aren't good." you retarded? the WP8 results over the past year are insanely good, its a fantastic growth, even if Q4 was a little behind (atleast in LUMIA sales) Q3, more than likely that'd be simply caused by no new WP8 devices aside from a couple niche devices
I guess you need further reading.
1 - The phones are activated when sold to the final user. So if Nokia reduces shippments of phones (their part of the sale) but activations increase, it means that retailers and carriers had too much stock. It's the same as with a PC game. Imagine you were the maker of a PC game. Each game has an activation code. You sell 2 million copies in Q3. In Q4 you sell 1.5 million copies. You sold less copies. But in Q3, from those 2 million copies, 1.2 million were activated, meaning, 1.2 million people bought the game and activated it. If in Q4, from those 1.5 millions you shipped, 1.3 are activated, then it means that you had more activations in Q4 than in Q3. However, it doesn't changed the fact that you sold less games in Q4 and that you still have 1 million shipped games in the shelves that weren't sold to consumers and activated. 2 - Are you retarded? We are talking about Q3 and Q4 results. EVERYONE was talking about Q3 and Q4 results. Belfiore was the one that came along trying to shift the conversation from QoQ to YoY.
Yes, there was an increase of Nokia sales on a Year by Year basis, and through that, WP. It doesn't change the decrease in shippments from Q3 and Q4 2013. Which is what people were talking about. Also, you mentioned other OEMs...right...well, given that HTC hasn't released any more WP devices; that Samsung, albeit releasing the Neo, reported loss in Q4; and that Nokia holds over 90% of the WP market...I guess it is pretty safe to say that when you talk about "Windows Phone sales" you're talking about "Nokia sales".
Either way, more activations equate to greater market share even if part of those activations were clearing the previous quarter's stock. When sales and activations decrease, that would be more problematic on the whole. 10+ million activations (or consumer sales) isn't that unreasonable. 8 million from Nokia, 1 million for other OEM partners and 1 million back stock sales. Not AWESOME but they are moving the chains or so to speak.
You are actually the one retarded because THIS ARTICLE is talking about AdDuplex numbers and Belfiore's tweet! You are doubly retarded because you forget that there were other OEMs selling WP, and who actually drastically slashed their prices this Christmas to get rid of all their stocks, so much that the better spec'd Ativ S and 8X had similar prices to the mid-low end Lumias. THOSE non-Lumia devices contributed to higher WP activations over the Christmas season.
"Conclusion? Nokia sold more Lumias in Q4 compared to Q3." ....
You are saying that, in Q3 Nokia's customers (operators, retailers, etc.) expected to sell more and thus ordered more phones from Nokia, but didn't manage to sell them until Q4? Just checking if I understood you correctly, as that would indeed explain the figures, and it would also mean that the actual sales to consumers in Q3 were somewhat lower than it seemed. Overall, WP is growing, but it is a sad state that they have not yet reached 10M / Q. P.S. while a more mainstream flagship would likely have produced more sales, the cheaper categories are what usually make the bulk of the sales, and most of WP-phones can now be acquired for less than $/€/£300 off-contract.
Same happened to Samsung!
That South Korean company is soon HISTORY!
The only reason that they sell has been HUGE marketing campaigns
and now even that will not help!
Adroid lags and always will!
There is no Android PC either....there it goes...Gone!
Its simple. 8.8 million sold in the previous quarter, when people worldwide are purchasing holiday gifts (remember that the 520 is the best selling device). There are 8.2 million sold the following quarter (to people who are introduced to the WP ecosystem, by all the new 520 users). Holiday activations rise. That's because the gifts, purchased earlier, in the current, and previous quarter, are given, and then subsequently activated, during the holidays. Also, there has been an up tick in Ativ sales, and HTC still has a three-legged horse in the race, being sold, in smaller numbers, but sold, nonetheless. Hence the discrepancy, between the quarterly numbers, and the AdDuplex numbers. Just my take.
^THIS! I don't know why people only equate WP solely with Nokia when there's also Samsung, HTC, and Huawei. Here in my country, Samsung and HTC drastically slashed prices of the higher-spec'd Ativ S and 8X down to the level of lower-spec'd Lumias.
The ATIV S Neo is the best general-purpose Windows Phone on the market in the USA. Gorgeous big screen, expandable storage, huge removable battery. It's also the flagship on Sprint. I stopped in the local Sprint store to check it out and was surprised at how nice it was -- the sales guy told me they're selling a lot of them.
With this and your other posts you are really over-thinking. Nobody is lying here. Nokia sold 600k less than the previous quarter. Activations were however up according to Belfiore. Therefore other OEMs did better this quarter. HTC, Huwaei and Samsung - probably with holiday discounts and promotions boosting their products to the expense of Nokia. Between the three of them (and I guess a couple of smaller players?) it wouldn't be hard to have 250k more sales each than they did the previous quarter. So an extra 750k sales for them, taking off Nokia's drop and you still have 150k more than the previous quarter. Sure made up numbers, reality could be way more or a bit less, but the point is WP as a whole did better in Q4 - even if not a big seasonal jump and not great figures for Nokia (but still amazingly better than the previous year).
Belfiore was talking year-over-year. Which is how sales are usually measured because it removes most of the seasonality. As long as Windows Phone keeps showing year over year growth, then slight drops from one quarter to the next is not relevant.
Nokia's numbers LOWERED. Period.
Sure, *Nokia's* numbers lowered. But how did Samsung, HTC and Huawei do? Huawei has been taking the low end by storm with some seriously well-designed handsets. It wouldn't surprise me if their sales were a million or more this quarter. Samsung's ATIV S Neo is gorgeous, and becoming very popular in the USA. It wouldn't surprise me if Samsung and HTC each managed to ship another half million to million Windows Phones in Q4 as well. Nokia fanboys don't like the idea that Nokia =/= Windows Phone, but that's still the truth. We're in a multi-OEM ecosystem, and that insulates us from Nokia's terrible business decisions (carrier exclusives, nonexpandable storage, nonremovable batteries, inadequate RAM, inadequate storage space, devices that are too thick and heavy, not addressing the CDMA carriers with compelling product, etc.)
The fact you said that Nokia made poor decisions when selling phones in terms of availability just proofs that you have less iq than a 9 year old
I stop reading on this numbers anymore, Lumia/windowsphone is right on track...
Yes man... It's belief that we need.
Of course they performed well. They sold 8.2 million units without producing a holiday phone. I personally thought the previous reports were waaaay too harsh on Nokia.
Love my ATIV S. I'm so glad I bought it instead of S3 :) It's been 6 months and it still works perfectly :) No bugs, no lags and fast updates.
MY S4 Active started to lag seriously in about 6 moths
I have killed many processes and unintalled a lot of programs
Maybe I can manage by now.
Android tested: FAIL !!
I'm seeing more and more WP8 phones in the wild more than ever, i think their will be a big push in sales this year, I'm in the UK btw so in my opinion its only going to get better :-)
lol a new iphone is an extraneous circumstance?? yea so inconvenient and unforeseeable that competitors release new products...
Windows phone does't mean Nokia Lumia, 10 mill windows phones, could mean 8.2 Nokia Lumia. I think.
Nokia needs to blanket the market, exclusivity on devices is stunting their sales. I hope that the Microsoft acquisition fixes this because it is completely retarded that their flagship phone can only be bought in one store (ignoring online). Or that different phones get different carriers it is the stupidest decision they have made in recent years as the only way to sell a product is by shoving it in people's faces. We live on impulse nowadays.
Sorry, looking at adduplex numbers as a guess when no real data is available is fine, but using that to get to a number different than an officially released figure and then trying to suggest it might be more valid is just silly. If Nokia had, by whatever way they normally record their sales, sold more, they certainly wouldn't have said that they sold less :)
At one time Nokia included other phones besides Windows Phones as "smart phones". So, Lumia sales could be up, but the drop in sales of other smartphones was greater. So overall, sales of Nokia smartphones was down.
So google can't ignore wp8 anymore ;-)
I think that in the next Kantar statistics Windows Phone will be still far ahead of iPhones in Italy.
This goes to show why a multi-OEM strategy is still smarter. Samsung's obviously seeing enough success with WP to keep making devices, and there are large numbers of us who don't want Nokia devices because of their heaviness/clunkiness (920, 1520) or lack of expansion. Heck, the third-largest carrier in the USA, Sprint, doesn't sell a single Nokia device. If you want Windows Phone from them, it's Samsung, HTC, or bust. There's also the issue of carrier exclusives. Nokia will never be a serious player in the US market if it continues to make its devices limited to a single carrier, depriving 2/3 of the market of access to its devices. Put all of Nokia's missteps together, and you have both a smaller Windows Phone market opportunity AND a bigger opportunity for the Samsungs, HTCs and Huaweis of the world.
Nokia hatred agian? you = shamesung fanboy
Technically, it is only a matter of time until Lumia isn't sold as a Nokia device. The strategy will probably shift here or there when Microsoft is at the helm and this may be an indication that it should. Or, this could simply be a market anomaly. Finding the right balance between their success in other markets and increasing the brand value in the US would be difficult but not out of the question. As an HTC user myself, part of me envies Nokia and part of me is annoyed by the assumption that Windows Phone = Nokia. Part of that is the fault of other OEM partners but sometimes, they just need a little guidance to help drive more support. As competition, Nokia is less likely to help all partners succeed. Hopefully, Microsoft will use their investment to help other partners realize more benefit from the platform and make it more appealing. For example, I'm grateful that Nokia opened up it's navigation apps to other devices but opening up their whole catalog would be very meaningful and a good selling point to other OEM partners. We'll see how it pans out but I would like to see more competition in the market to help satisfy the needs of all consumers.
Not that it means much, but I personally sold five Lumia 520s to family and friends over the holidays. It really is a great, great deal at $60. They love their little phones/GPS/music player/web connected device.
They will continue to be lower as long as the high end latest phones are only offered exclusively with the idiots of AT&T and Verizon. Sell the phones directly and let the carriers compete on their own merits.
Here in Canada the Lumia has almost disappeared. You still see the 1020 as the token Win8 exception in the phone stores, and the occasional 520 in the back of Future Shop, but that's about it. I asked my Roger's reps about the 1520, and not one person had even heard of it. There is certainly no advertising for it. I hope the Lumia (and WP8) is doing well elsewhere, but it seems to have hit the wall here in the Great White North.

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