Report: Sales surge in the US for low cost Lumias but more expensive ones remain elusive
New data shows entry level Windows Phones doing very well, while the Lumia 1020 remains niche; Nokia near 90% of the Windows Phone market
AdDuplex have released Windows Phone ecosystem data for the month of September. The company powers the ads that are found in Windows Phone apps worldwide and have become a solid metric for platform statistics.
This month's data continues a few trends, including steady growth of Nokia's dominance and the rise of low-cost Lumias. However, the high-end market, including the Lumia 1020, have so far not sold nearly as much. Expectation due to niche device or market failure?
Low cost Nokia devices lead the way
The above chart shows how the Lumia 520 has passed the 20 percent mark worldwide, which is mainly down to strong sales in markets including India. The Windows Phone 8 device has almost taken over the "Other" category, while building a 12 percent lead on the Lumia 920 (9.3 percent). The next most affordable Lumia Windows Phone, the Lumia 620 is in third position on 9.1 percent.
However, should we look at just Windows Phone 8 hardware, the Lumia 520 has an even greater lead. It's certainly a popular choice for consumers.
If you require reminding of Nokia's dominance of the Windows Phone ecosystem, check out the chart below:
It's interesting to note that should the deal go through between Nokia and Microsoft, Redmond will take control of its mobile operating system with over 80 percent of the manufacturing share. Nearly 90 percent of the handsets available will be Nokia / Microsoft, depending on how branding works out.
Windows Phone 8 starting to stall
The latest version of Microsoft's operating system was making progress against its predecessor and was approaching the 75 percent marker, but it seems as though it's ran out of breath and requires a quick break. The AdDuplex report shows how the platform advance has started to slow down:
The latest Windows Phones are selling, but there are still markets out there (Italy, Mexico, etc.) that remain strongholds for Windows Phone 7. This may not necessarily mean that Windows Phone 8 has stopped selling, but more that we're approaching the point where the changes in these charts will begin to become small while the remains of the older system are put out to dry.
Here's how the picture looks:
GDR2 grows rapidly in 30 days
So with the reports coming to light about mobile operators in multiple regions beginning to roll out the GDR2 update for Windows Phone 8 hardware, what does the picture look like when comparing those who have the update to those who don't? Bear in mind that the August report showed that only 3 percent of consumers received GDR2.
According to the AdDuplex report, we're looking at 30 percent of Windows Phone 8 owners sporting the GDR2 update--that's a sizeable increase in one month. 67 percent are still on Portico (GDR1) and are awaiting the notification, while just 1.7 percent are stuck on the base 8.0 version. We expect these numbers to shift dramatically as Microsoft works with operators to push out the update over the course of the next few weeks. Remain tuned for more details.
Lumia 520 storms ahead in the US; no premium hardware?
It's not only India that favours the affordable Lumia 520 as the US has taken to the low-end Nokia Windows Phone. Both the Lumia 520 and Lumia 521 (the variant for T-Mobile US) are ahead of other Windows Phones when their shares of the market are combined (3.6 and 14.2 percent respectively).
What's also interesting to take from this chart is how there's no mention of the Lumia 925 or Lumia 1020. Granted, both handsets have not been out for long enough to really show (and the latter is an expensive niche), but the Lumia 928 is well up there with the Lumia 900.
Could this be an issue with operators, or are people just more into picking up more affordable Windows Phones as the experience isn't drastically restricted? We'd put it down to a mixture of both. That said, we have looked at how the Lumia 1020 is indeed selling just as well as the Lumia 928 in a previous AdDuplex report, so we'll hold off on drawing conclusions for now.
We can, however, take a look at what could be making the Lumia 521 so popular:
MetroPCS wasn't even on AdDuplex's radar in recent months, but the pre-paid wireless service (owned by T-Mobile) has stormed ahead to 5 percent, at the expense of both AT&T and Verizon.
We've written before on the entry-level market and how Nokia is poised to grab that segment. You can read more on that in our article "Nokia well positioned for approaching smartphone price wars as costs plummet".
Russia remains fair to all Windows Phone OEMs
Unlike other parts of the world who are fixated with Nokia hardware, Russia is providing a level playing field for all manufacturers who support Windows Phone. This chart represents Windows Phone 8 units in the region:
But the same can't be said when we look at manufacturers and not hardware:
Lumia 520 and 925 taking off in the UK
There may be cause for concern when it comes to the lack of growth in these reports for high-end hardware, but the UK sure is having a go with the Lumia 925 entering into the top list with 4.2 percent, just 4 percent behind the Lumia 920. The Lumia 520 has rocketed to first position with 20.4 percent of the market. A huge jump from 12 percent in just two months.
The Lumia 800 is in second with 15.8 percent, while HTC's 8S is sat in third on 9.6 percent. The Lumia 800 had a rather strong launch in the UK and it's been difficult to ship the remaining units from retailers and partners, while handing out new Windows Phone 8 hardware and attempting to convert Lumia 800 owners to upgrade.
Germany, Austria and Switzerland enjoying premium experiences
Sprinting in the opposite direction to the US and many other markets, Germany, Austria and Switzerland have the Lumia 920 in first position on 18 percent. The Lumia 800 is in second (also experienced a strong launch) and the low-end Lumia 520 is in fourth behind the 820.
What may come as a sight surprise is how the Samsung ATIV S is in fifth spot with 7.2 percent of the Windows Phone market in the region. It's positive to see a strong hold for another OEM, especially when we've previously given the ATIV S a massive thumbs up in our detailed review.
Other charts in the report show a dominance in China of the Lumia 920, sat on 24 percent. There's certainly a stronghold effect of Windows Phone 7, but the latest version of the OS, along with new hardware are both beginning to break through and really make an impact on these charts. It was never going to change overnight, but we're getting there. Mexico is still an interesting patient:
As always, these reports are produced using a sample of Windows Phone apps running version 2 of the AdDuplex SDK. The data was collected over the day of September 20th, 2013. You'll be able to view the full report once it's published tomorrow over on the AdDuplex website.
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Rich Edmonds was formerly a Senior Editor of PC hardware at Windows Central, covering everything related to PC components and NAS. He's been involved in technology for more than a decade and knows a thing or two about the magic inside a PC chassis. You can follow him on Twitter at @RichEdmonds.
I'm waiting until they destroy the last of Nokia legacy in 2014.
If WP8 adoption has slowed down, its because Microsoft has slowed down, releases are far and few, there has been nothing substantial since many months now, Nokia has been releasing phones, but Microsoft has been lagging behind on updates. Unless there is a major update with substantial features, android will move ahead and eat into WP market. We are still struggling to get GDR2 yet, at this rate adoption will stop completely.
1020 is an amazing device with a old OS. Microsoft needs to buck up, else the trend will be downwards.
MS needs to get their shit together on OS, especially with notifications, ability to shut off vibrations, system/ringtone volume and a whole lot of other basics.
As much as i love my Windows Phone, it will not stop me from pointing out where it lags behind. I want WP to win, and as a ex microsoftie I know that MS is slow, i hope the new CEO turns it around.
I have a 920 Rogers and a 925 T-Mobile. I run into memory issues on both. If there was a W8 high end phone with a SD memory slot or 64GB it would move alot more. All the High end phones in any store has a 64GB variant except W8 phones. Tmo only offers a 16GB. That's a joke.
Or rather, see what's NOT in the store and move on to some Android device. The store displays are pathetic and do nothing to make anyone want a WP device.
And of course, places like Costco, you won't even be able to find WP period.
I think this is a much bigger obstacle than many even realize.
Only has 3 devices that need updates at the point of their yearly release (for iOS7, the 4, 4S, and 5.)
Controls the entire device, so they don't really have to worry about hardware compatibility with the software. The software is designed for the phones, where for WP and Android the phones are designed around the software.
Each of the 3 devices that get updates have a big enough market share on their own to put a carrier's market share in jeopardy if they were to even try to delay an update and alienate iPhone owners.
Has enough clout to tell carriers, "You will update, or you lose our phones." The carriers need Apple. They don't need MSFT. Samsung at this point could pull the same sway for the Galaxy line, but not for their other phones or any other manufacturer.
Split up on multiple carriers, and the stores might or might not even bother to display "all" the WP models they have. So there's a lone months old WP phone collecting dust somewhere in the store. That's the reality.
If it was MS releasing new OS the article would be more about how many bugs there are, yet this article in Australia's top news website goes above and beyond to offer free support. crazy.
but anyways the craze will die down in a week or so and we'll go back to appreciating why we love our Windows Phone. I do agree having been with WP since the birth of WP7 that MS have made a lot of promises and are very slow to adapting them and in some case not at all (e.g. I can't remember what they called it but one was users could sign up to receive updates straight away if they want to risk things not going well) and over the past 3 years the update process is stlll slow. But things have always been improving and hopefully they'll continue to improve. Moving to iPhone or Android is probably an option most of us here can't take so be glad WP is still around and Nokia are making some of the best handsets in the market. Who cares if not everyone has a WP. I actually kinda fear the day everyone has a WP.
The Lumia line is growing in terms of sales, but if they try to go all-out too soon they risk sinking the ship. I think the 822 market share vs. the 920 is telling in terms of needing to get flagship-level hardware on VZW, and hopefully the MSFT aquisition will give them a little longer leash to try to get more agressive in getting top of the line devices across more carriers at launch. Like it or not, at the point it got launched the 928 was getting hardware comparisons to the S4. The good news (hopefully) is that Verizon is getting the 929. The 1520 may have more wow-factor, but it's the Note III to the S4. People are still going to shy away from a 6" phone, where the 929 brings current hardware to the WP range.
Don't be an asshole.
why? because it has a hardware sliding KEYBOARD.
unless they ever make a new one with it, i would think about it.
windows 8? no thanks.
All the Samsung Focus users (like myself) and other WP7 were in on the initial wave. The Lumia 800/900 buyers are still on their contracts. Nothing big to really read into that chart.
All 92x´s should be looked as one phone to properly see the popularity of each segment imo, same goes for 52x´s, 62x´s, 72x´s and 82x´s.
The first good launch in any segment would naturally sell the most. The ones coming after that wouldn´t gain as much attention from buyers as many don´t see what is new with each model. It´s just more of the same and that is a problem with locked down hardware. Not that I mind it personally as I see the benefits from it, but without the ecosystem it just makes a tougher sale.
Microsoft has a long row to hoe with WP. They didn't have an existing market presence like BB and were late to the game compared to iOS and Android and when they did arrive, they were missing a lot of features that old-school WinMo people expected as well as were (and still are in some cases) missing enterprise features (*cough*VPN*cough*).
However, people are fickle and if MS is willing to continue to improve, deliver regular improvements (*ugh*carriers*ugh*) and get the 3rd party apps people expect to see, it should work out in the long run.
I've also been pleasantly surprised by the available apps and the performance of the phone. I can't believe there's so much phone for $99 no contract!
I think a big problem with many of Nokia's releases is they come first to AT&T. I hate AT&T! Even with AT&T exclusivities, more Windows Phone devices are sold on Verizon surprisingly. Nokia is in it for money and gladly took it for the AT&T timed exclusivity. Now with Microsoft in charge, they know availability and marketshare are more important and I doubt devices will go to AT&T first next time around.
High quality smartphone (I think in the US they are called "hero phones"...) + cheap pre paid phone plan = epic win. :)
That makes no sense at all.
And my Android still had stuttering animations even with ICS. My dirt cheap 521 has buttery smooth animations.
Of course it is, and of course they do. Doesn't mean you are identified in any way though.
If so, isn't it natural that those who buy more expensive phones, like the 1020, also would buy more apps?
Don't know, but have seen something similar in website stats, where my Lumia 920 suddenly was a Windows XP with internet explorer 7...
That's because the Ativ S is retailing in online shops at Lumia 520 prices: 130-150€. That's basically free. A lot of people who just want cheap but high on the spec-sheet hardware, and don't care about missing out on all of Nokias free services, apps, features, enhanced functions and updates, will opt for the Ativ S over the Lumia 925, which now retails at around 350€, after it was over 500€ for months.
Also, guys, you can't just change Nokia in the "OEM" piechart for Microsoft. A) because the deal is not through and won't be for another half+ year and because that market share was secured in the past, and not in the future, and second because it wasn't Microsoft who secured 88% of the Windows Phone market, it was Nokia. You are taking away credit where it is due, and giving it to where it is ABSOLUTELY not due. If Nokia hadn't been putting out Lumia Windows Phones, but Microsoft putting out Windows Phones, there would be no Windows Phone today, just like there wasn't before Nokia came into it. People aren't buying a Windows Phone, people are buying a Nokia product. And it will revert back to the old state in 12 months, once the name Nokia is gone from the Lumia advertising billboards. Mark my words. The Nokia developers who over the past 18+ months were developing more on Windows Phone than Microsoft itself "just moving to Microsoft, and that will speed up WP development" will not change a thing, they will not be able to do their thing at Microsoft, for the same reason no one at Microsoft is getting anything done in the fast moving markets that are phones/devices/internet/email/search etc.