Circana: Xbox may have finally seen some solid YoY hardware growth, both in units and retail sales

Xbox is quite notoriously in something of a transitionary phase right now.

Microsoft has doubled down on putting its Xbox "exclusives" onto other platforms, including arch rival PlayStation. Sony is maintaining its strategy of software exclusive to attract new players, with titles like Stellar Blade, Black Myth Wukong, and others skipping Xbox thanks to favorable deals with the big #1. Microsoft has landed some of its own timed exclusives, helping developers like GSC Game World on STALKER 2, but the bulk of Xbox's strategy revolves around value with Xbox Game Pass.

Xbox Game Pass has been on absolute tear this year. DOOM: The Dark Ages, Oblivion Remastered, and game of the year contenders Blue Prince and Expedition 33 have seen it dominate the headlines recently. However, Xbox hardware declines year over year have also dominated headlines, with the latest bit of doubt coming from Microsoft's own quarterly earnings report, with figures showing another decline for hardware.

There are some green shoots of positive change, though.

Perhaps the sheer volume of content hitting Xbox in April made Xbox Game Pass utterly impossible to ignore, but Mat Piscatella of analytics firm Circana reported on BlueSky earlier today that Xbox has seen 8% YoY growth, leapfrogging the Nintendo Switch itself in its twilight months.

Piscatella also clarified that the Xbox Series X|S came second both in terms of units and dollar sales, which is quite impressive given the dominance of the Nintendo Switch in recent years. But yes, Nintendo Switch sales plunged owing to the Nintendo Switch 2's imminent launch, but the figures suggest to me that there is still demand for Microsoft's oft-derided gaming hardware ecosystem.

Piscatella noted that Xbox's notorious hardware price increases haven't yet gone into full effect in the United States, with many retailers still selling stock at the previous price tag. Interestingly, Microsoft also beat Sony on digital-only SKUs for hardware, with the Xbox Series S hitting 66% to the PS5 Digital's 48%. Although that could be a simple case of stock fluctuations.

Piscatella suggested that we wouldn't see the full impact of Microsoft's price increases, good or bad, for a few months yet. PlayStation has once increased prices previously on PS5 hardware in some territories, and signalled that it may be forced to do so again owing to the Trump Administration's tariff war on manufacturing nations like China. The bump could also be a sprint of users trying to get consoles in before Microsoft's price increases go into full effect.

Xbox finds some spring green shoots

While 8% growth isn't exactly anything to go ape over, the bump did fall in a month that was particularly strong for Xbox Game Pass. I wrote an article only yesterday discussing whether or not Xbox Game Pass alone was a good enough "exclusive" to drive sales. This might be at least some modest evidence that it may well be — but the April, May period was a very rare sprint for Game Pass.

Can Microsoft maintain that every month? Probably not, but word of mouth spreads, and perhaps the value of Game Pass is becoming difficult to ignore in a world of perpetually increasing costs.