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More than half of all active Windows Phones could update to Windows 10 Mobile

New data from AdDuplex has shed some light on the current and future state of Windows 10 Mobile amongst current owners of Windows Phone hardware.

Also, new data sheds light on the Lumia 640's growth, and we compare upgrade-distribution rates between Windows Phone, iOS, and Android.

Who gets Windows 10 Mobile?

The March numbers reveal that 15.2 percent of all existing Windows Phone that are capable of running Windows 10 Mobile already are on the OS. Another 35.2 percent are capable of upgrading to the new mobile OS launched this month, at least, in theory assuming little carrier interference and regional delays. That brings the total number of Windows 10 Mobile devices - in theory - up to 50.4 percent of active phones.

Doing math leaves 49.6 percent of all Windows Phones in use as not being capable of running Windows 10 Mobile. Many of those phones are ones with 512MB of RAM or older Qualcomm S4 chipsets, which, according to Microsoft were cut from upgrade eligibility due to negative Insider feedback.

See the full list of eligible Windows 10 Mobile devices here.

Microsoft has said there is no 'wave 2' of device upgrades coming, however, there is some reconsideration for phones like the Verizon Lumia Icon, which has a dedicated following.

HTC is passing on upgrading the One M8 to Windows 10 Mobile due to a small install base and the costs of paying carriers to test the update (versus any return benefit). Perhaps that is of no surprise as the company is struggling financially amongst fierce competition in the Android space.

Good or bad?

Is that 50 percent number for Windows 10 Mobile upgrades good or bad? Considering that the update is not hitting all of those devices just yet and things like carriers, regional availability, OEM support, and more come into play, the number is likely lower.

Looking at current Android stats and just 2.3 percent of their install base is on Android 6.0 (Marshmallow) with 36 percent on Android 5.0/5.1 aka Lollipop (which was released in late 2014).

Around 34 percent of Android users are still on KitKat, which came out in early 2013, but mostly in 2014.

You can see what our sister site, Android Central, thinks about the Windows 10 Mobile upgrade by reading 'Microsoft can teach Android makers a thing or two about updates'.

Apple, on the other hand, has a more elegant story to tell with 79 percent{.nofollow} of all active iPhones and iPads on iOS 9 as of this month.

Once again, Windows Phone falls in between Apple, who always sets the bar and Android, who tends to lower it. However, none of that will make your pleased if your phone is in the ineligible bunch for Windows 10 Mobile.

Windows 10 Mobile share is up again

In related news, AdDuplex also noted that Windows 10 Mobile accounts for 7.7 percent of the Windows Phone OS market and beating Windows Phone 8.0 at 7.4% and Windows Phone 7.x at 3.9 percent. That's a 2.4 percent bump for Windows 10 Mobile since the last numbers.

There is still an uphill battle, however, as Windows Phone 8.1 makes up a massive 81.1 percent of the OS version on all Windows Phones. A mix of in-situ upgrades to current hardware and new Windows 10 Mobile hardware will be needed to overthrow Windows Phone 8.1.

Lumia 640 rising and Lumia 520 going to second place?

Finally, the Lumia 640, which is Windows 10 Mobile upgradable, is still one of the fastest growing phones with a global 0.9 percent rise amongst all Windows Phone devices. The Lumia 640 now accounts for 7.3 percent globally and is slowly catching up to the Lumia 520 (12.1%), Lumia 535 (12.0%) and Lumia 630 (8.8%).

AdDuplex suggests this may be the last month with the Lumia 520 as the top Windows Phone as it lost 0.5 percent share.

Unfortunately, new OEMs are yet to gain any share from Microsoft's Lumia devices as their share has actually increased by 0.34 percent. That means 97.21 percent of all Windows Phones are still NOKIA/Microsoft. BLU is not seeing much luck with just an infinitesimal 0.01% gain while HTC, Samsung, Huawei and 'Other' are all down slightly.

About AdDuplex

The numbers from AdDuplex are collected through their in-app advertising that is prevalent in over 5,000 apps in the Windows Phone Store. That data serve as an important metric within the Windows Phone ecosystem. The full AdDuplex report for March will be posted on their blog at on Thursday (March 24th)

Daniel Rubino
Executive Editor

Daniel Rubino is the Executive Editor of Windows Central, head reviewer, podcast co-host, and analyst. He has been covering Microsoft here since 2007, back when this site was called WMExperts (and later Windows Phone Central). His interests include Windows, Microsoft Surface, laptops, next-gen computing, and arguing with people on the internet.

  • "Why didn't my phone get wm10?" comments in 3,2,1....
  • ...<cue chirping crickets audio>
  • Sent from my Lumia 830, crawling along with the '.64 build of Windows 10 Mobile
  • [Cue tumbleweed] Sent from my Lumia 830, crawling along with the '.64 build of Windows 10 Mobile
  • My Lumia 830 is running perfectly on 10586.164
  • Responding thru actionable notification right now
  • Well remarkably mine seems to be working great now. All that all that I did were a few restarts. Fingers crossed it stays as good as this! The windows central beta app hasn't crashed yet! Sent from my Lumia 830, crawling along with the '.64 build of Windows 10 Mobile
  • In highly related news, Hip-Hop icon Phife Dawg has died.... The entire WC community reacts. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
  • Who?
  • You know who. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
  • Thats sad :(, never even heard of him tho. 
  • You Cray cray
  • He was the Phifer from A Tribe Called Quest. Had their albums on vinyl back in the day, and I'm a white Australian.
  • Exactly! Nice, John!
  • Rodneyej this news is strange to bring up in comments, but I like it better than your normal comments.
  • Anyone who says they don't like my comments... It's obvious they are in denial, and can't stand to hear the truth... Oh, well. Can't please everyone, and to anyone that is seriously bothered enough by someone's comments here, I can't help, nor am concerned, with helping them with their emotional problems.... Regardless, thanks for telling me what you don't like... I don't like eggs, beets, and lima beans.. Ewwwwwwwwwww, nasty! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
  • Your screen doesn't flicker? Sent from my Windows Mobile phone.
  • It does but I got used to it now. It appears to have stopped working so well now. I spoke too soon... Sent from my Lumia 830, working good for once with the '.164 build of Windows 10 Mobile
  • It does but I got used to it now. It appears to have stopped working so well now. I spoke too soon... Sent from my Lumia 830, working good for once with the '.164 build of Windows 10 Mobile
  • I love the flickering. It induces seizures, and I've never had a seizure until the W10M update. It's really opening up a new frontier of brain function to me.
  • The sarcasm is strong with this one... Sent from my Lumia 830, working good for once with the '.164 build of Windows 10 Mobile
  • Why?
  • 1.7%... Wow
  • Kamikaze!!!!! :)
  • Older phones have got the update. Its just not supported/recommended by Microsoft.
  • why does anyone still use a Windows phone device though ?
  • Personal preference? I have a brand spanking new Galaxy S7 on AT&T and iPhone 6s and 6s Plus. I prefer my Lumia 950 and use it on my main line. Weird? Not really. Lemme ask you this: why do you have a green filter for your avatar photo? Why bother?
  • Haha,
  • I think he ws thinking Green + Human = The Hulk. In reality it looks like somebody puked over the photo before smearing it with vaseline.
  • He looks like he's in The Matrix, but forgot his overcoat.
  • I actually puked over the mirror before snapping the picture, family tradition.
  • It was a rhetorical question ;) I just meant to point out that we use things because we like them. Not much else to say on the matter.
  • I understood your point and  in fact I use and like Windows 10 Mobile I just forgot to add the digit "7" that's all :P
  • That makes more sense. Otherwise it would be strange of you to be on a winfan site trying to bash it lol
  • Yeah because no one here does that... :)
  • Curious... purely hardware-wise, what do you think is the best out there? If Samsung put W10M on the GS7/Edge, would that become your daily driver? #AskDan, if that's still a thing :)
  • IMO i want w10M motorolla nexus 6.
  • Even better, a WM M10, or S7, or Droid Turbo2! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
  • The S7 beats the crap out of the 950. Daniel, of course, as Editor-in-chief of a Microsoft fan site, will never admit that. But the fact is that it does.
    And yes, if Samsung were stupid to waste money on putting WP10 on the S7, WP fans would be flocking to it because it's one hell of a phone. Posted via the Windows Central App for Android
  • He never said it didn't. He just said that's what he prefers.. The S7 also beats the living dog **** out of my 1520, but it doesn't run this annoying ass, buggy, slow, mixed up WM10 that I love, so you don't see me using one... It's not always about what's more powerful... Here in America the Mazda Miata is the most raced car on any given Sunday.... That's the point. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
  • I was answering the question "Curious... purely hardware-wise, what do you think is the best out there?" Rod...
  • I see... I'm not really a good judge of what's best right now. It's been a long time since I got my hands on some new devices.. IDK. Build quality? I'd have to say the iPhone for fit, and finish. It's immaculate... I haven't seen the S7, but if it's anything like the note then it's really good.. I think we'd have to wait for Sony, Motorola, and HTC to really gauge what's hot for 16... The Surface Phone, and iPhone 7 are just to far out. Might as well save that battle for 17... Nevertheless, I think that I might be a more reasonable judge of quality, performance, and design, than most.. Because, I am biased, but I don't let my biases stand in the way of logical assessment.. That's hard to find anywhere.. I wasn't very impressed with the 950, but it appears to be at least at a reasonably level of quality.... Personally, with no apps it's no better than my 1520, so I'm not rushing out to get a new device.. This is the main reason I need MS to come to the table with something special for the Surface Phone.. It's still gonna be lacking apps, so there better be a very strong selling point for me, and one of those is a larger screen option that the 950/XL doesn't have... I'm also interested in this new HP device. Nevertheless, I have to have a second device soon because I need specific apps.
  • Of course S7 is better, it is different hardware, 950 is already 5 months old, nearly a half year. That comparing crap is boring, cause only mainstream chasers care about it.
  • Nah, it doesn't. Pure fanboy comment on your behalf. Posted from Windows Central for XL
  • Well, calling ME a Samsung fanboy. That's precious...
  • I would say so, yes. Posted from Windows Central for XL
  • He never said it was better or not, He just said he perfered it. And I know exactly how he feels. I could have a brand new S7 or 6S company paid right now. But I just handed them back after two weeks. I like to keep dreaming microsoft will at some time get it's act together.
  • That's exactly what I said.. Copy cat. Lol
  • Keep dreamin.....
  • How I would use continuum with s7? Then my @XL beats the crap out of s7
  • Oh calm down DJCBS, you don't have to constantly insult users on this site. Daniel seems willing to admit when something is better, so maybe hold on claiming wild blind bias. As for the question, the S7 is definitely better in almost all areas hardware wise. The 950XL still has the advantage camera wise and a user replaceable back/battery, but the S7 has a better cpu/gpu, fingerprint reader, more ram, water resistant, etc. Considering your comparing a 5 month old phone in the 950 to the S7, that isn't unusual. If you want a better comparison, look at the HP Elite X3 compared to the S7. Samsung might not have to waste much money putting Win10 on an S7 if MS' rom program is successful. It would be a nice option.
  • I have an S7 for work and I think it sucks, particularly the OS. I much prefer my nearly 3-year-old Lumia 928 running WP8.1 instead.
  • S7 is better than 950 hardware wise, that's a fact, Daniel won't have to admit anything, you are creating the discussion all by yourself :D
  • Well, at least give I'm a real answer.... For me? Hope. Lol. We have faith, we hope, we are enthusiastic, we pray, we wonder, we have imagination, and dreams.... "Windows Mobile Fans Dare To Dream"
    It's what separates us from the rest.. Come! Come join us☺
  • you have the option to change statment and clarify that you meant, why windows phone, when W10M is available. 
  • Actually my comment was supposed to be "why does anyone still use a Windows Phone 7" But I missed the 7 and that happened, so yes I get this personal prefrence thing. I own a Nokia Lumia 925 running W10M and if I buy a new device in the next few months it'll be a Windows 10 device.
  • Dude, that's why you gotta keep the old app around! So that you can edit your comments!... LMFAO! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
  • I have no idea what old app you're talking about. and the Windows Central UWP won't let me log in. The bright side is I trolled so many people and it wasn't even on purpose. lol
  • The 8.1 app. I would say that's the old, or I guess current, app right now........................ Edit your comment!
  • even if I could get that app on W10M I wouldn't go through the trouble of downloading it, makes no difference anyway. it's midnight here and I need to sleep.
  • Touché ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
  • First, probably someone using a Wp7 device doesn't know he is using an outdated device... For him "it's a windows phone" or it's just a phone(don't know the os). Second, if you ask him this question, he will say... "Why? This phone is working... Why I need to change?"  Just because we have this "need" to have new things, doesn't mean that everyone have... For some people a phone that make calls, send sms/emails/whatsapp is more than ok.
  • +920/25/1320/830/735/640/35/521/20 Posted via the Windows Central App for Android! (Nexus 5x)
  • No 1020??... SMDH
  • Also no Lumia 620 right there :/
  • Lumia 35, 25 and 20? :o
  • I still have my HTC Radar 4G Windows Phone 7.X.  It's great!  My photo's uses the panaramic veiw.  Lovely!  My Zune Music is the best, because it's not an APP!  It's baked into the OS and I can open multiple instances of the Music albums at the same time.  Plus it provides the album year!  Superb!  I still use Rooms!  I Still use Groups that provides quick information about friend and family at a glance!  Awesome!  I could go on, but why some people forget how great Windows 7 was and is!  The new Windows 10 has some new features sure, but it sure lacks the presence and solid feel that WP 7.X ever provided!  So to your question "why does anyone still use a Windows Phone 7" those are my reasons!
  • I concur. Each year Microsoft added new functionality for Windows Phone but each year the user experience went downhill. Windows Phone 7 is a well thought out OS and shame on Microsoft for dumbing down the OS to sway over Android users.
  • I have always been able to capture photo subjects in one photo. I use Spotify for music on my phone, has like 30m songs available instead of just what I own. Has artist bios and everything in addition to album year, I hear Deezer is good but I don't have a subscription to anything. I use Groupme for group chats, and I have Facebook groups and contact groups in People. I'm sure Windows 7 was great, but I think the current functionality is too, and we can take advantage of all the new features too.
  • @Jeddic I think you mis-understood what I meant by paranamic view.  But if you used WP7 you would know exactly what I was talking about.  But here's another nugget about the Photo Hub it actually shows the current posted photos from friends in FB.  Hey Zune/Xbox Music/Groove has over 32M songs too.  But with every iteration of WP Microsofts removes great features only to replace them with "beta" stuff.  I know Windows 10 will never be complete because its all evolving, but it's just one huge "BETA" test.
  • Well i still got a Lumia 510 lying around that's occasionally used to keep it alive.. Wanna see how long it survives in 3 months it turns 4yr old :)
  • When I saw your comment clarifying that you meant Windows phone 7 this made more sense. Probably the same reason people still use a 520, it still works for them so they won't replace it.
  • My legendary 520 deserves W10 mobile! -_- That's the most popular lumia dear MS :S :S 
  • It's almost 3 years old. The hardware is as old as basics. If you want W10M up and running, you should think about upgrading to a new W10M capable phone with decent specs. If you want to switch, you can always choose a droid. You can choose Insider previews though, if you want to stay for some time.
  • Jump to insider
  • I am actually now on insider! But it's not really a good experience at all. I am concerned because as a Windows Phone dev i have to choose between UWP and classic WP 8.1 development. 521mb ram based device is still own a pretty big portion specially in my country. So keep developing apps for WP8.1 will be a painful part for me. I know supporting old devices isn't easy and an additional burden for MS but still OS updates are always cool to remove fragmentation! 
  • Sooooooooo, your Lumia 520 is running Windows 10 Mobile and you said that it is not really a good experience at say your 520 deserves Windows 10 Mobile.... Hmmmmmm.... Microsoft made the right decision to not make the update available as people would have upgraded their devices due to the sheer awesomeness of W10M and then they would have been utterly disappointed by it not being a really good experience at all, just as you said. Microsoft knows that the general consumer does not want a bad experience and that the general consumer will not connect their phone to a pc, download WDRT and roll back to WP8.1. It's funny how we know some things are not good for us yet we still want them and some people get mad at pappa Microsoft for just trying to look out for the best collective interest of the user base. Looking out for the customer sometimes means not doing what is wanted but rather doing what is needed.
  • The Insider Preview versions use Telemetry and are continuosly collecting data, which may obviously slow down the OS. They could have well optimised the OS for 512MB phones!
  • The OS upgrade people need, but not the one they want.
  • @ssakash, if you are worried as an app developer that your customers will not get your app, if you go the UWP route and want to still do WP version as well, you will eventually have to build the app for UWP a year down the road once majority of them convert to W10 on mobile an desktop. Or, you could build both apps now, one for new customers on UWP and one for old customers on legacy WP OS. In either case, the decision is yours, whether to build for both platforms, or just cut your losses and build only UWP. 
    I'm not sure anyone here is qualified to answer this for you as it is your decision based upon your business plan for your app. I'd probably take into accnt the delay in building, testing, rollout of your legacy app - by the time you do that, there may not be enough customers justify your return on investment. I'm not a dev, but if I was, I'd probably focus on the new platform, not on the one which is being sunset. Just my 2 cents.
  • Well the plan is to stick with wp 8.1 development for now as 8.1 apps are also supported in w10 mobile. After the completion of this OS transition i will move to UWP fully.
  • Really, why don't some little understands that there are system requirements associate with most OS upgrade and some hardware don't meet those specs
  • My 520 is terrible on Cyan. I few putting it on 10.
  • I'm not sure I'd bother with Insider W10M on your L520 and would get a cheap phone with 1GB of RAM. I have 635 with 512MB and W10 on it is not only slow, but core apps are unstable, with News app being the worst in crashes. Lots of gazing at "loading" screens. Have you considered getting a cheap Lumia, whatever 1 gig model? It's absolutely worth it and W10M runs like butter on 1GB devices. At least on my 640 and 435 it does. Not sure what country you are in and what's available, but there are OEM phones coming out as well.
  • Yeah, I agree. Windows 10M has been great on my 640 and 950 in the last few months. I get the financial aspect of it, and I'm not saying just go buy a new phone this afternoon. But if you're interested in WP and involved in following it, then saving up $10-40 for a 640, 535 or 435 has to be worth the investment.
  • +520
  • So much for OEMs saving the day....
  • Well, are any of those OEM announced flagships actually out yet? Cause I don't think so.
  • Because all those OEM phones have been released, and since cancelled because "Windows sucks!" \sarcasm Let's actually wait until some OEM's release some solid Windows phones and actually get them into distribution. Although a couple OEM phones are available, there aren't many more, and most in the US are low-end. Once they start hitting carrier shelves I think we'll see the pie start changing. That said, I'm sort of interested in how Android distribution looks, with hundreds of phone models worldwide, but only a few phones that really generate profit.
  • HTC did release their flagship. Where did that go? It isn't even being upgraded and it has some of the best hardware available on WP8! It will be nearly impossible for these other phones coming out to be successful. These OEMs are not going to stick around after they flop. You didn't see an M9 for Windows, did you? Posted via the Windows Central App for Android
  • Glass is half full then, I guess
  • no half empty!
  • Nice colorful phones in the picture.
  • Hope that I'll soon get the windows 10 update on my AT&T Lumia1520
  • My 1020 took a dump so my only choice for a replacement via Asurion was the HTC One M8. Not much to say when neither of them are getting win10. Can't wait for the surface phone or another flagship to get released
  • I have the 1020 and One M8 and I am currently using the 950. The 950/XL is a great replacement to your current One M8. If you have held off this long, it may be good to save up for one of those new devices like you said. I don't regret getting a 950. It is a much better device, software wise, than it was at release in 2015 and the hardware is still fantastic.
  • I wanted the 950 or 950XL but I was holding out hope for a 1020 replacement or the surface phone. I've waited this long so waiting a little longer won't be that big of a deal. Win10 has pros and cons on the M8 but it will be good enough to get me by until the next one comes out.
  • What about that HP phone t