A concoction of Windows 10's imminent death and AI PC hype is expected to grow US PC shipments by 5% in 2024 and an ambitious 8% next year

Surface Laptop 7
(Image credit: Windows Central)

What you need to know

  • A new report suggests US PC shipments are expected to grow by 5% in 2024, with projections of hitting 8% by 2025.
  • Market analysts attribute these predictions to Microsoft cutting support for Windows 10 next year and the hype building around AI PCs.
  • Macroeconomic conditions and trends dictate healthy spending capabilities, allowing people to make IT investments.

At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the PC market dramatically shifted amidst the adversity and tough economic times. As a result, the number of people buying new devices with sophisticated spec sheets declined significantly. This is one of the reasons why Windows 10 continues to dominate the market share

Microsoft's stringent system requirements for Windows 11 have led to the operating system receiving the shorter end of the market share stick despite the company's big push for AI with tools like Copilot. As you may know, Windows 10 is slated to hit its end-of-support date on October 14, 2025.

And while Microsoft has issued multiple reminders notifying users of Windows 10's imminent death to get them to upgrade to Windows 11, Windows 10 still has more than double of Windows 11's market share. 

But as it now seems, global PC shipments are on an upward trajectory. According to Canalys (an IT analytical firm), PC shipments in the US are expected to grow by 5% throughout 2024. The growth translates to approximately 69 million devices (via Tom's Hardware). 

Canalys projects a 5% growth in PC shipments in the US.  (Image credit: Canalys)

Projections and trends show that PC shipments could hit an 8% growth by 2025, translating to approximately 78 million units. Counterpoint Research reported a 3% growth in global PC shipments in Q1 2024. The report suggested that the growth trend will improve with the hype and anticipation around the long-awaited AI PCs. 

The death of Windows 10 will drive PC shipment growth

Windows 10's Start menu on the Dell XPS 15. (Image credit: Future)

According to Greg Davis, Analyst at Canalys:

“Continued discounting after the holiday season boosted consumer demand for PCs into the start of 2024. However, the first quarter also saw an uptick in commercial sector performance. Shipment growth in small and medium businesses indicates that the anticipated refresh brought by the Windows 10 end-of-life is underway. With enterprise customers set to follow suit, the near-term outlook for the market remains highly positive.” 

“Macroeconomic conditions in the US have been stable for several months, allowing for healthier consumer spending and business investment in IT," added Davis. Users have held onto their Windows 10 PCs due to Microsoft's stringent system requirements for Windows 11 and the OS's flawed design and "comically bad performance." 

Kevin Okemwa

Kevin Okemwa is a seasoned tech journalist based in Nairobi, Kenya with lots of experience covering the latest trends and developments in the industry at Windows Central. With a passion for innovation and a keen eye for detail, he has written for leading publications such as OnMSFT, MakeUseOf, and Windows Report, providing insightful analysis and breaking news on everything revolving around the Microsoft ecosystem. You'll also catch him occasionally contributing at iMore about Apple and AI. While AFK and not busy following the ever-emerging trends in tech, you can find him exploring the world or listening to music.