OpenAI must match Microsoft’s size in 4 years to hit a $1 trillion IPO valuation — but it's still losing ChatGPT users to "QuitGPT"

OpenAI is arguably the most sought-after AI research lab, which could primarily be attributed to its early investment in the technology, coupled with the broad popularity of its ChatGPT offering.

However, recent reports suggest that the AI firm could make a $14 billion loss in 2026, primarily driven by infrastructure expansion, model training, research hiring, and compute costs. Market analysts and experts predict that this could potentially set up the company for bankruptcy by mid-next year.

While CNBC reported that OpenAI's internal targets are slightly higher at $280 billion in annual revenue, Reuters' Karen Kwok says "OpenAI would have to build a business the size of today's Microsoft in just four years" to succeed. That would certainly take some doing. OpenAI will need to maintain rapid growth, generating up to $250 billion in annual revenue by 2030.

Last year, we learned that OpenAI is reportedly laying down the groundwork for what could be one of the largest IPOs in history, with a potential valuation of around $1 trillion. The report further detailed that the ChatGPT maker could be getting ready to go public and even file with regulators in the second half of 2026.

It's worth noting that OpenAI generates approximately $13 billion in annual revenue from ChatGPT and LLM access fees. For context, 70% of this money comes from users paying for a subscription plan to talk to AI. Despite ChatGPT's vast popularity and adoption, only a small percentage of users actually pay for the service.

This means that OpenAI has less than 5 years to convert its $13 billion annual revenue to $1 trillion. It's unclear whether the injection of ads into ChatGPT's user experience will help bridge this gap.

However, CEO Sam Altman says OpenAI’s revenue is “growing steeply,” noting strong demand across its consumer and enterprise businesses, including ChatGPT and upcoming hardware. He further projects the company’s revenue could soar to $100 billion by 2027.

💬 Will OpenAI be able to grow its annual revenue?

It's no secret that Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI is encountering some turbulence. Microsoft was curiously absent from OpenAI’s latest funding round, which raised $110 billion and boosted the company’s market capitalization to about $730 billion.

However, Microsoft cleared the air, indicating that "nothing about today’s announcements in any way changes the terms of the Microsoft and OpenAI relationship."

OpenAI’s controversial deal with the Pentagon to use its AI technology and ChatGPT for mass surveillance of American citizens and autonomous weapons systems sparked backlash from users, turning the company into a target for cancel culture.

The hashtags “Cancel ChatGPT” and “QuitGPT” quickly became viral, leading to ChatGPT uninstall rates spiking by nearly 300%. Altman admitted that the deal was "opportunistic and sloppy" while highlighting OpenAI's plan to amend parts of the contract, adding new language to reinforce its principles on sensitive issues such as surveillance.

But it might be a tad too late to save face. A new report claims that approximately 2,500,000 people have stopped using ChatGPT as part of the “Cancel ChatGPT” movement, which is gaining more traction (via artificial intelligenceee).

Unless OpenAI can reverse this trend, moving from $13 billion in annual revenue to Microsoft’s scale will be a steep challenge, especially since ChatGPT remains its primary revenue driver.

Do you think OpenAI could achieve a $1 trillion IPO valuation with the QuitGPT trend growing stronger? Share your thoughts with me in the comments.

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