"The sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028" — Rising memory costs are driving cheap PCs to extinction, and 2026 is when it all begins

The PC market is under heavy stress as it contends with memory and storage shortages driven by the massive AI data center construction projects around the world.

According to a new study from Gartner, which is a firm dedicated to providing tech and business analysis, the PC market is expected to get so bad by 2028 that entry-level PCs will have completely disappeared.

"Entry-level," in this case, includes any PCs that cost $500 or less. This market sector is already relatively narrow unless you can find something on sale, often populated with off-brand laptops and desktops.

According to Gartner's analysis, the rising costs of memory and storage are expected to shrink global PC shipments by 10.4% in 2026 compared to 2025. This stat arrives alongside an estimated 17% price hike on PCs in general to take effect throughout the year.

Compared to 2025, when memory costs made up roughly 16% of the cost of a laptop, it's expected that memory costs will climb to about 23%. As Gartner points out, this will make it a lot tougher for brands to absorb certain costs to keep prices down, hence why the sub-$500 laptop market is expected to disappear.

The first half of 2026 is being positioned as a "critical window" for PC makers looking to "optimize pricing and protect margins." The second quarter is where the biggest crunch will likely be felt, when the rising cost of components really starts eroding profits.

The side effects of rising laptop prices

One aspect of rising laptop prices I haven't really given enough attention to is how much longer PCs are expected to last now that they're a more severe blow to the wallet.

Gartner believes that the PC upgrade cycle will be "fundamentally altered" as the world over sees fewer shipments go out. With so many users attempting to hold off on buying something new (and likely out of their price range), Gartner predicts that PCs will last between 15% (business) and 20% (consumers) longer by the end of 2026.

Gartner also notes that rising PC prices will have an effect on AI PC adoption rates. It was projected that AI PCs would make up roughly 50% of the market by 2028, but that no longer seems feasible.

Windows Central's take on rising laptop prices

I've been keeping an eye on rising RAM and storage costs since last year, and I wish I could say that the situation is improving. Unfortunately, that's just not the case, and we're already seeing PC prices climb quickly.

My best advice? If your current PC is not going to last for years to come, grab a new laptop or desktop as soon as possible. There are still a lot of great Windows laptops available for way less than $1,000, some even approaching $500 with the right discount.

I want to know what you think

Is Gartner's prediction of the sub-$500 PC market disappearing accurate? Are you concerned about affording your next PC? Let me know in the comments section!

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